Back to episode — Episode 2279 Scott Adams - CWSA 11/01/23, Solving US Debt Problem And More
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pod with a glass top and you can get in this if you're ready for assisted suicide and they'll just turn up the, they fill it with nitrogen gas which rapidly lowers oxygen levels causing its user to die. I assume this is painless otherwise it wouldn't exist. Now of course the opponents say my God this will be abused. Would you agree that it will be abused and it won't just be people who are in desp…
← Previous segment →e the claustrophobia right before you die of being in a little casket thing. I don't like that part but I certainly like the option to be able to go out on my own terms. So I got mixed feelings about that.
Here's another one. Should have asked Scott. Climate scientist Roger Pielke Jr. who has long been on the side of let's say skepticism. And I don't believe he's saying that there's no connection between CO2 and warming. I don't think he's that kind of skeptic. He's a skeptic on the models. So that's the part I know he's a skeptic about. So I have less knowledge about what else he might be skeptical about. But he has another, I guess he gave a speech or something recently and he talked about all the problems with the models. But here's the one that makes the most difference. So apparently there are several models that people could use to do their additional science and say if this changed what would happen. We study this variable. If you add this variable to the existing model what happens. So I guess they've got some low, medium and high models that are most often used. You know the worst case, best case, average case. And which one do you think they usually use to show the effects of their science? If you said they use the worst case scenario you'd be right. Do you know why they do that? Because if you make a paper or discovery which shows the most cataclysmic eventual outcome you get, you're more likely to get funded because that makes it more important and you're more likely to get attention and you're more likely to get promoted and you're more likely to get more grants. So basically the system is designed to incentivize people to always chase the worst case scenario. And the worst case scenario could happen but it's probably the least likely outcome. Somewhere in the middle is the usual. So there it is again.
Now I hate to brag. No I love to brag. But everybody who ever had any experience doing financial modeling or any kind of modeling of the future, we all knew this. Like we all knew that all models that predict the future are just financially driven period. There's no exception to that. If it comes out of a corporation they're showing you something because they want to make money. If I produced a number as part of my analysis of what the financial long-term effect of some decision would be which was my job I knew I was just doing what my boss needed me to do to support what he already wanted to do. Like everybody knows that. That's just common knowledge. So did I need to be told by an expert who knows a lot about it, Roger
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Pielke Jr.? Did he need to tell me that the financial models are being gamed and are not any kind of indication of reality? He did not need to tell me that. That was obvious, super obvious from day one. I've never had a different opinion. The first time I ever heard that there were long-term data predictions I mean I just laughed. There's nobody who does this work or any version of this work who t…
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