Episode 1745 Scott Adams - Later And Better Than Usual

everybody so we've got a laggy bad wi-fi connection here on locals and who knows if youtube is going to work but what i do know is it's time for the simultaneous except all you need is a copper glass or mug a canteen jug or flask a something something something a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dope beauty of the day thing makes everything better are you ready go paper cup coffee not as good protein bar not my regular kind everything's wrong well yeah we'll talk about the great replays man so that seems to be the big story of the day we've all been waiting for the hoax of the day this one seems to be based on uh the shooting of yet another little turd who's killing people for no good reason um and this has caused cnn everybody to blame it on tucker carlson now is it my imagination or does the left think that tucker carlson runs everything because it seems to be that they believe if they can take tucker carlson out they can end the democrats you know communication channel and it's it's almost true isn't it i feel like tucker carlson has become the primary republican voice for people who are really sort of watching things but let's talk about that so tucker carlson has spoken of this so-called great replacement theory would it be possible for me to speak about it without being accused of embracing it what do you think if i saw if i simply broached the topic would i be accused of embracing it and therefore a white supremacist it seems unlikely i don't know if you've watched there's there's a a minor drama going on in my public life uh there's a specific individual who i won't name who's who runs a little cult so he's a cult leader of some sort he has a man cult and he's decided that he's really really mad at me for my uh support of masks during the pandemic which never happened so there's an entire organization who you know his members and his leader attacked me on a regular basis they created accounts on social media to come after me and their biggest complaint is how pro mask i was which actually never happened literally never happened so i never recommended them never was in favor of them i talked about it i showed you some studies but uh so so my life is uh influenced by somebody who has a completely wrong opinion and obviously never really watched anything i said but he's decided to wrap his life around it okay all right so there's somebody out there who's got a like a whole mission to destroy me based on something imaginary now that's my normal life my normal life is people coming after me for imaginary things it happens every single day it's the hardest thing so let's talk about replacement theory so i saw uh tucker carlson talk about it the following way he described it as math that if you're in the united states and you have a vote it wouldn't matter if you were democrat or republican and you add more people from other countries it will dilute your vote because of math now is there anybody who doubts the math that there's an existing group of people who could vote and then you were to add new people to that group wouldn't matter where they came from it wouldn't matter would that group the original group have less influence per person is there anybody doubting the math now my understanding is that tucker just showed the math and said well yes literally literally and mathematically no the math is that if you add something to an existing group you dilute the group right so that's not really a that's not an opinion so so cnn has treated math like an opinion no seriously cnn's actual editorial opinion is that math and the result of it is racist and that actually is the biggest story today the cnn thinks bath is racist because when when tucker carlson gives them a math lesson it's coming from tucker carlson so i guess logically qed therefore must be racist now the part they don't say is they're assuming that tucker carlson's entire uh motivation is to have fewer brown people and more white people has like him said anything like that that would be a different conversation right because he does talk about culture now is it true that if you have an existing culture and you were to add people from a different culture to it would the existing culture stay exactly the same or would it change exactly the way we like things to change which is we like to be influenced by each other and develop our own civilization so if he says that the way things are the culture would change if you added people from a different culture it wouldn't matter which one it was would it be different yes and if you liked it the way it was would you be happy that something changed well people don't like change if they're already happy they don't like change now which of those statements from tucker are the big racist ones the one that's math if you add people to an existing group it dilutes it or the other one that's also basically math which is you add different cultures to an existing culture probably the the average is going to change a little bit those literally are both math and the plumes yeah whatever happened to plume theory all right you now you're going to make me talk about it did did that uh the plume theory was that how much coveted you got initially would have a big impact on whether you got sick did that get debunked because i thought that was basic understanding i didn't think that was even a question was it a basic understanding that if your initial contact was a little bit of virus you could still get it but if you got a little bit of virus maybe your body could you know mount a response a little better than if you just slammed it with a ton of virus is that not true it is getting infected with a tiny bit of virus exactly the same as taking a big swing if you've been drinking on the cup what do you think now i think that it's probably different because i haven't heard i haven't heard anybody revise that to me now i've seen david g do the lol putin theory if that's the best you have as your as your counter lol you don't have anything because do you know what argument i'm making about masks math it's math more viruses worse less virus will give you a better situation does anybody argue with with the let me see in the comments in the comments is it would you accept the assumption that more exposure to virus initially is worse yes or no is more exposure initially worse for your outcomes give me your answers more exposure better or worse i'm saying people are saying yes on locals somebody says unknown well you know the experts said it's worse all right you two were seeing some no's oh interesting on youtube you're saying it that the amount of initial virus doesn't matter some people are saying that a lot of people say yes yeah the concentration and the amount yes all right so uh more is worse yeah so i think you would find more is worse there's no question about that now if you have a barrier which is sending your plumes sideways and up and down instead of directly like a fire hose into somebody's mouth when you're talking to them which is likely to give you more virus when we measure masks what do they measure they measure infections don't they do they measure outcomes has anybody done a study that said that the people who got it from somebody who had a mask on had as bad outcomes as somebody who got it from somebody who had no mask what do you think am i balls too yes i balls in them so to me my argument is only math and people have sent us an opinion is math an opinion no math isn't a opinion it's math tucker's opinions are math my mask opinion is that i don't want one and it didn't make enough difference that i think it was useful right so i've always been against them but not because they make no difference there are lots of things i'm against they help a little right they just don't help enough somebody says this is not math yes it is i use math plus engineering the engineering part's obvious that the mask sends the plume sideways it up that part's obvious because you can't blow out a candle with a mask on why does it not work the same with omicron omicron is just catchier that's all right now statistics are an opinion well maybe it's an opinion about who did the math right i suppose all right only with a crappy mask i suppose that's right too what else is going on all right so um it looks like this great replacement thing will be the new cnn hoax or at least they'll ride this for a while and the republicans are trying to respond by saying well you guys did some bad stuff too that's not very strong so wow is that the best they have the great replacement theory um scott krog says let's see how many people agree with scott crock he says scott let's be honest you were pushing the vax pretty hard for about two months all right those of you who've watched me the entire time how many of you uh agree with uh stupid scott crock how many say i was pushing the vaccine pretty hard for two months 100 people who watch me every single day on locals are saying no 100 100 scott scott grog so what the were you looking at scott because it wasn't me you must have you must have confused me with because are the people who won't say anything positive about the thing they're against right so scott you may be projecting you may be projecting yes you're projecting because you saw somebody reasonably say huh you got this on this side you got this on this side and you saw that and you said well he must be a idiot because he's looking at both sides that's what you did that's what you did scott you look you saw somebody looking at both sides and you couldn't handle it because you're a idiot so don't come here and tell me what i'm thinking when you don't know and you don't understand anything about the topic or how to talk about topics so you don't not only do you not understand about vaccines probably probably but you don't understand how people talk you don't understand this thing a little bit of something doesn't tell you anything you don't understand a thing about the world scott so go away please leave the broadcast all right um yes i didn't give any medical advice that i'm aware of um i saw the adam scrabble tweet today and this is a two-part story the first part is i saw an adam scrabble tweet do you know the last time i saw him tweet was months ago and then elon musk uh informed us that if you tap that little star icon in the top of your app for twitter you can get it to give you your your tweets chronologically just as they come in instead of having the algorithm decide what you see and as soon as i turned off the algorithm what do you know what happened well there was an adam scrabble tweet so for the first time he wasn't blocked in months and months so let me tell you what he said since i got to see him for the first time in months thank you twitter algorithm um so russia's current account is at a record high meeting you know cash that they're getting in from exports so from that one measure of russians uh the russian economy it's doing better than ever and that's just one measurement within a larger economy and then eurozone's plunged into a record deficit so that's not good do you believe anything that comes out of russia because only russia would know what the current account for russia is right or is that something that everybody has access to to me it sounds like this is a whole bunch of lies let's talk about putin dying i saw a tweet which i tweeted from somebody who i'll give you this name jack hopkins i don't know who he is he's he's a user on twitter but he didn't look crazy and that and he said that he used to manage an oncology floor so apparently he spent years around people who were known to be dying of cancer and he he shows a picture of putin's face now all puffy looking next to a picture of him from just two years ago and he says i've seen this look a million times he's dying at some rate basically has terminal something probably cancer do you buy that because somebody who managed an oncology floor says i've seen this look a million times this is it what do you think do you believe somebody says altered photos well no all of putin's photos have that same puffy look lately uh you believe he believes that he does somebody says heart failure does heart failure make you look puffy um it does okay and how about uh how about cancer and steroids right make you look puffy or something so my take on putin from quite a while ago was he looked like he was dying do you remember when i was saying how long ago was i saying that putin was dying six months ago can somebody give me uh when's the first time you heard me say it five months ago six months ago or ish right now when i said putin was dying six months ago and you could tell because he just looks it where i said he was sick one or the other um how many people agreed with me if you wait longer he's done and and i got mocked didn't i didn't most people mock me and my argument was that people can identify illness fairly well and that just looking at them actually is better than you think as as a way of predicting heavy skills the humans actually are pretty pretty good at determining illness just looking you don't have to be a doctor in it um yeah norm norma golf yeah nor mcdonald puffed up that's a actually i hate to say that was a good example wasn't it um at first he said he thought he was on a testosterone well it looked like he was on something looked like he was on something so um yeah so anyway there's i think there's a big health problem and the rumors about a coup already starting would make a little bit of sense with the military situation here's a way to understand why russia's military is not succeeding so well on the battlefield you ready for this because they know that putin's a short timer that could be why russia is not performing on the battlefield because imagine that you are one of the leaders and you know that at the end of this there's a really good chance you're going to be brought up on war or crime charges pretty good chance how would you play it if you thought putin would only have a week or two left in office would you go balls to the wall and do every you know military war crime that you possibly could or would you slow walk it exactly if you were a military leader and you saw that putin was not going to last you would slow walking and it's hard to explain why the russian military is doing so poorly you know we we do know that the opinions of american training nato training and that and great weapons maybe that's enough maybe they're just a really really good military the ukrainians that's entirely possible that could be the entire explanation the other explanation is that russia's military isn't exactly taking orders from putin the way they used to the way they used to is if i don't do this he's going to kill me right if i don't uh sacrifice a third of my troops to take this town i will personally be killed i'll be jailed so then you you sacrifice a third of your troops because you got to do it otherwise you die but what happens if you think putin's not going to last do you sacrifice a third of your troops or do you tell putin um there's some something stopping you from attacking uh yeah we're gonna attack as soon as we get those new supplies you're sending oh the new splice of the wrong kind well as soon as we get those new new supplies we're totally going to attack that down and take it even though a third of us will die it feels like russia started slow walking the war now remember that i told you this and wait to see how long it takes for it to be in the mainstream media how long do you think it will take because nobody said this yet right i don't believe anybody has said that the russian military is slowing down because they also expect putin not to last well i i think you'll see it by the end of today by the end of the day all right um would you like a movie recommendation since i've told you that all movies suck and they don't make good ones anymore i actually watched a movie last night on my ipad there was a good movie it's called uncharted have you seen it and you know i'll give away the thing or anything so who's who's the uh the young actor who played spider-man recently um oh is that a cohen brothers yeah holland right tom holland so tom holland uh is really fit i didn't realize he was he was cut pretty well and he plays a guy a normal guy who is just really coordinated just really really coordinated and i love what they did with the action scenes because just making an ordinary guy just really coordinated he just does lots of things that really coordinated people can do and it's really fun to watch and i you know i'm tired of movies i'm tired of movies because it's all the same movie there's somebody tied to a chair and torture there's a car chasing blah blah blah blah it's you know there's one person fights against 25 and beats them it's all the same but this movie actually found a way to create to create completely new action scenes in the air that they were pretty impressive for uh it was very creative creative movie i like um but you have to you have to still have to fast forward through all the scene-setting scenes you know when i when i come to a movie if i'm watching it on my ipad and i'm alone and you get to the part where two people are showing how much they love each other like it might be you know same sex and they're just best friends or something but you get to see that you know that really tender moments when they show each other's love to each other fast forward i i don't really need to see half a minute of these two characters loving each other i'm like i got it uh yeah two those love each other got it got it moved to the plot i got it i got it and they love each other i got it i got that in five seconds got it move on that's how i watch a movie now every every time the scene is one that's gonna be five minutes of really five seconds fast forward well here's another thing that i'm going to claim some rightness on even though i was totally wrong about ukraine being invaded by russia in the first place so that one doesn't go away from my permanent record however uh nato secretary general jens stoltenberg i guess yesterday today expressed hope that ukraine will prevail against russia as moscow's military events appears to be stalling so so now important people are saying out loud that ukraine looks like they have a good chance of just winning the war just already winning the law now am i the rightest person in the world about this can anybody give me the name of anybody let's say who does this for a living you know people who talk in the public domain is there anybody you saw anybody besides me who said that ukraine would give them a fair fight anybody but i'm sure there were a lot of individuals but was there anybody willing to say it i think i'm the only person who was dumb enough to say in public malcolm nance but when did he say bill barr on ben shapiro or are you saying you like that show yeah i care i i think i i think i own that one i believe so we still don't know if ukraine will well at this point let me ask you at this point would you say as of today just rev forget any opinion you've ever had before forget all of your prior opinions if you could start today is ukraine going to prevail in maintaining themselves as a essentially the same country yes or no will ukraine prevail as of today looking at your comments i'm seeing uh more yeses than those but less knows and i think a no is a reasonable you're still reasonable if you're saying no i i disagree with no but you are not unreasonable with that opinion yes without the east maybe uh define prevail prevail means that they're effectively still ukraine but they may have lost some border territory or not so whether or not they move loose in border territory that's not the question the question is is it still ukraine essentially it looks i think yes i think they're going to stay a country it looks like so that's what's going on let me see if there's any headline that i would talk about i'm not going to talk about this shooter you know my idea is there anything to say about yet another match here like i just don't i don't feel that i should talk about it so with your permission that's just not a story for me i mean it's obviously the story but we're not going to give any more attention all right um oh and everybody's gonna be talking about free speech now johnny depp is back it was a video of johnny depp acting really bad and slamming cabinets and stuff uh amber heard is testifying on the infamous defecation allegation well i've got a feeling that we're gonna see some bad stuff about johnny depp come out wouldn't you say yes amber turd uh it's gonna have some bad stuff so i don't think that either of them are angels but um the video that she showed the one i saw this morning so amber turd took some you know secret video of johnny depp being all mad at something and so the point of the video was to say that he's like this angry guy who punches cabinets and if he punches cabinets well maybe he punches people now let me ask you do you nobody who violently destroys inanimate objects but would never hurt a person or an animal do you know anybody like that anybody anybody who has a track record of destroying inanimate objects yet interestingly has no history of hitting people for any reason except self-defense right that's not that unusual it's not that unusual but the video in which johnny depp was in their kitchen apparently and slamming cabinets and i think he might have broken one did you hear what he was saying while he was doing that breaking of the cabinets he was saying that something happened to him that morning that did not happen to her in other words she did something that morning pretty terrible i think or something terrible happened to him that had nothing to do with her that's possible too but it looked like she had done something so horrible he was in that mood and there was something she caused we didn't hear what the horrible thing was but i think we will we might all right um so this baby formula thing uh is it true that we can't ship in baby formula from other countries because of some uh regulation is that actually happening because correct me if i'm wrong if we were to ship in formula from other countries we'd have enough because it's not like every other country has a shortage sort of an american shortage because of our companies that make it so uh fda regulations yeah it's a labeling law boy you know how long would it take trump to sign an executive order to make that go away ten seconds now the trouble is well actually if you made that go away you'd probably end up killing a bunch of babies yeah this is a tough one actually because it's it's not that the fda does nothing but i feel like you'd be safe if they just tested it you know tested a couple of the bigger brands and said okay don't send everything but it's okay these specific brands we we took a weekend to look at them i feel like they could do that right they can't do a study in the weekend but they could look to see if there's anything in it that looks like a contaminant i think they could do that preferably shipped from the eu and not china yeah except the eu probably got it from china all right uh reporter finds that critical race theory ideas in 39 of the top 50 medical schools okay um there's a fentanyl awareness group i'm looking at the fox news website in case you're wondering where this has come from there's a fentanyl awareness group is asking biden to track uh overdose deaths which is weird because i thought we already do that because i always talk about that number do we make that up we don't track it um oh so they won't count in the same way all right i'm totally in favor of this let me give my full throated support uh literally yesterday i was writing my book that i'm here trying to write and one of the things i was writing is that if you and i've said this many times if you're not tracking it you're not managing it is that right if you're if you're not measuring it you're not managing it because you wouldn't know if you did x or if you did y if you change the thing you're trying to change because you're not measuring it if you didn't know why anything was changing you wouldn't know if the thing you're doing is making a difference so a good general rule is if you can't measure it or you're not measuring it you're not managing it so if if this group is asking for fentanyl to be reported and measured the same way that's a smart idea because what is it that is so frustrating about the fentanyl question other than you know the obvious what's frustrating is it doesn't look like the government's doing something does it i i didn't by the way i said the same thing about trump trump talked about it and he asked china to do something but nothing happened literally nothing so you know we're not securing the border we're not making china do anything differently nothing there's literally nothing being done so that's an unmanaged problem are you surprised that something is not being managed when it's not being measured and reported in the way that important things are now was the was the pandemic unmanaged no it was not because we reported the piss out of it didn't we and the more you reported it the more the more the government had to only work on that because that's what was getting reported so in many ways the media has to take some responsibility here because if the media had treated fentanyl the way it treats cobalt we'd probably be measuring it and managing it by now but you know the the press treats it as a you know another thing that's like all the other things it's like well more people died from this defensive opening it's no real story it's just more people dying and more isn't the story the story is usually something different happening not just more of the same it feels like i'm on a boat yeah i'm right by the ocean so yes um let me say without knowing anything about this story that if we're not reporting fentanyl deaths on the front page of fox news and cnn we're probably not we're probably not managing it oh this is the coolest thing somebody asked me what's on my wrist so it's been a while since i vacationed at least in america and this is the greatest innovation for being at a hotel so this opens my door and it's waterproof so i can swim with it now do you know how much pain in the ass i've had trying to keep my little uh door opening card it's the worst thing i'm always losing it i probably de-magnetize one of those door opening hotel cars one out of three times that i travel i probably put it in the wrong pocket with my phone and demagnetize it probably one out of three times and then you get to your room you can't it's just it's just the most annoying thing about a hotel is the stupid room card done and in fact it's so uh it's so unobtrusive that i didn't realize i still had it on and i slept with it apparently evidently it's great um let's see what cnn say in case there's anything interesting i doubt it so uh yeah the shooter plans to shoot more people blah blah blah sweden and nato getting in obviously sweden and finland getting into nato but it doesn't look like you know that alone is going to bother russia all right um let me tell you the funniest exchange i had on twitter today and it was regarding uh tucker carlson so there was a user called savin and he was saying that uh tucker carlson you know spits out conspiracy theories and so i i responded to him saying that tucker carlson spits out conspiracy theories i mentioned this you know i said is it more than cnn so i just wondered what his baseline was if he's complaining about um tucker carlson creating these um conspiracy theories does he think that cnn doesn't do it and so he responded what has cnn done that has encouraged bigotry and or mass shootings were they too careful regarding coven yes is that worse than bigotry so yes that's a good question what has cnn done that has encouraged bigotry and or mass shootings what have they done well there was the find people hopes there was the drinking bleachers there was a russia collusion hopes there was a covington kid hoax there was the russians paying bounties on american soldiers hoaxes there was a car in the house that we should go on should i go on covington kids yes yes um and so now not all those would of course encourage uh a mass shooting but likewise not everything that uh cn that fox news says would encourage any mass shootings now what exactly did tucker carlson say allegedly that encourage and mass is shooting can anybody give me say a quote some kind of indication that tucker carlson would be in favor of mass shootings or even accidentally said something that would encourage it can somebody give me an example of that because there's no example of that there's no example of that no he has a strong opinion about you know america first and you can hate that or you could love it but it's completely transparent he's not hiding anything there's no go shoot anybody of that that's just a perfectly you know i'd say typical i'm not going to say i agree with it or disagree with it it's just a typical opinion and none of that should cause anybody to shoot anybody so um and i thought it was fascinating that somebody could at this point would not know that cnn is primarily a hoax generating entity how do you not know that oh no jetblue is launching a hostile takeover for spirit air uh so that's interesting i always thought the spirit was a bad name for an airline because the thing that people are afraid of with airlines is crashes and you know and basically you turn from a corporeal being into a spirit and i'm not sure that was the best brandon um let's say there have been 201 mass shootings in 2022.

so do you call it a mass shooting if it's a like a drive-by spraying of a crowd that's a mass shooting right how many of the 200 how many of the 200 were of the mass shootings were caused by white supremacists what do you think um it took cnn anchors over three minutes to list all the u.s cities that had mass shootings this year and uh but since all the news is about this white supremacist guy allegedly um shouldn't we know of the 200 mass shootings how many of them were white supremacists they don't count gang shootings um scott ritter on youtube yeah i've checked out scott reader on youtube i don't think anybody knows what's happening there they count gangs down yeah inflation's fixed uh there's not much to talk about with inflation because there's just more of it um the thing here's the thing that makes me crazy about what's happening right now you so we've had this long debate about socialism versus capitalism in this country right is it my uh imagination or is the effect of everything that's happening more socialism that's that's the net effect right um inflation should is basically taken by my wealth down by a third maybe what would you say so i'd say that poor people are still poor right so if you don't have much income there's not not much lower you can go you know you're scraping by but if you're rich your your wealth may have gone down by a third or a half depending on what business you're in and that should vastly you know close the gap so if you raise taxes on the reg you close the gap it gets you closer to socialism a little bit if you increase inflation who who gets inflation hit the most it's two different answers who it hurts the most is the poor right no doubt about that but the pain is at the poor but in terms of where the money disappears more money disappears where there's more money so the the wealthy would you know shrink by a third the the poor would have more pain but there's not there's nothing there to shrink it's hardly any money so in a weird way it seems like everything we're doing has this similar follow-the-money effect that it's a way to keep the poor fed and make them more dependent on the government giving them direct direct money so basically the pandemic was a bunch of money taken from rich people and given to poor people which i favor because you know you have to keep everybody alive you know um maybe the way we did it could have been a lot better i'm sure that's true but i don't object to the fact that rich people were tapped to give a little extra money to keep people alive in this country you know nobody's going to complain about that um now when i say rich people were tapped that's not exactly what happened because we just you know created money out of nothing and spent but who pays for the who pays for the inflation who pays for the higher taxes who pays the deficit down it's people who have money right poor people don't pay anything i mean relatively speaking so rich people are going to shoulder the burden of all the inflation well let's say 95 and uh all the higher taxes 95 etc now i'm not complaining uh i you know i'm i'm explaining i'm explaining that it appears that the biden administration has found a stealthy way to turn us into a socialist country that's what it looks like uh scott more poor are being created by inflation yes yes so i'm not saying that more poor people aren't created i'm saying just again this is just a math question it's not even an opinion this is math that the rich people have the money so if somebody's going to pay taxes that it's got to be from them right that's where the money comes from so again i'm not saying it's good or bad or anything that's just what's happening and it's funny that we don't talk about it that way you you would expect that at least fox news would be saying that we turned into a socialist country because or at least more of what we've always had a lot of socialism um over where we want to be somebody says i have my car my stocks my golf membership none of this affected me what do you mean you have stocks and you were affected by the market downturn i think you mean you're holding your stocks which would be actually that would be a good a good opinion so um i haven't looked at my stocks normally i would look at my portfolio every day but i i've literally not opened the app i have no idea what my net worth is i don't know what i don't know and i'm not gonna look i'm not gonna look until the headlines say something like the stocks are starting to reach their old their old highs then i'll start looking again because if the the the practice of investing here's a little tip for you i don't think you've ever heard it in quite these terms mostly if you studied economics maybe you did but the act of investing is primarily about managing your own psychology you got that it's a little bit about knowing what to invest in but that's not hard because you could just put it in a index fund and and be done just walk away so it's not hard to know what to invest in just diversify you get a low cost you know fund that tracks you know big basket stocks and that's it so knowing what to buy is easy knowing when to buy it is hard knowing when to sell it or if to sell it is hard because those are questions of psychology so investment is not about knowing what to invest in that's easy unless you're dominant you're trying to you know guess on certain companies that's gambling so gambling is hard if you're trying to pick individual companies that will win that's gambling so that's hard but it's easy to invest just put it in an index fund and walk away so how do you manage your psychology the number one way you do it is by not looking at it it took me 50 years to be able to do this for 40 years or something i i probably couldn't do that for about 40 years but now again like i finally finally learned to not look at it because if you look at it you know what you're gonna think oh uh i'd better i'd better be selling this thing right away before it all disappears now if you imagine if you made terrible investments maybe that's true i don't know but if you if you have an index fund or a broad basket of stocks i don't you're you the only way to measure your own animal instincts is to not look at it and you should also be thinking in terms of the five year um a five-year horizon i i saw a tweet by nivall recently he said something like dear god let me let me have one more bubble if you get one more good bubble you know sort of ride it to what you think is the top and then sell everything you know maybe that's your best exit strategy for retiring give me one more bubble i just want one more bubble and then i'll put it all in cash or put it in my mattress or something yeah to state the obvious somebody somebody very rude in the comments said i could be dead in five years that's yeah so in five years i will be almost 70.

so yeah i could easily be dead in five years um oh oh all right i just remembered something so i'm going to take a a point of point of privilege something called point of personal presence i'm gonna i'm gonna tell you something that's not for your benefit and it won't hurt you but like usually i'm presenting for you know what i imagine you would like to hear i'm going to give you one thing that's purely selfish the the man who came up with the name dilbert for my comic strip which wasn't me by the way it was suggested by my ex-boss and co-worker uh he passed away in february his name is michael goodwin i'd like to hear his name and he was the person who came into my cubicle that day and saw my drawing of this character who became dilbert on my whiteboard and i'd asked people to suggest names and he picked up my whiteboard marker took the cover off they wrote dilbert on the board and i've told this story the story before that when he wrote that word on the board next to the character i felt myself go down and tunnel to the future and i could see that that was his actual name in the future it wasn't like coming up with a name it didn't feel like assigning a name it didn't feel like picking a name it felt like it's not just buffalo just hours after that horror americans experienced at least two more mass shootings in two other cities so far this what it felt like was i literally went to the future and saw dilbert as a huge success now i can tell you this a thousand times and you're not going to believe that i actually had that experience i swear to i swear on everything holy my dog anything you want i actually saw the future now not literally i don't mean i actually time travel i mean that i saw clearly that this character would succeed in the future the name was dilbert it would always be dilbert and i was done from that moment on i never once imagined it wouldn't work and the odds were something like ten thousand one so the odds were ten thousand to one roughly that's actually a real real number of succeeding you know in this business and that's right well i'm not sure i'm not sure that wanting and deciding works in the case of cartooning because other people have to make decisions so other people have to say we like it and we'll put it somewhere so i don't have full control of that so that the wanting versus deciding thing uh works when you do have the full control right so you could decide for example to build yourself up to enter a weightlifting contest and you know you just push hard enough you could probably make that happen but with cartooning you really have to depend on luck and that there was somebody out there who would support you who liked what you're doing and that part you can't control uh i wonder if there are any other dilberts there are there are people named gilbert yeah and um uh dilbert ground loop was an aviator cartoon it wasn't called dilbert ground loop was it i think it was just called dilbert and there in the navy there's a thing called the dilbert dunker has anybody heard of that the dilbert dunker uh it's been around since at least world war ii and the idea was that uh navy aviators uh would have a risk of you know crashing and being underwater in their plane and the pilots would have to figure out how to get out of their cockpit while they're submerged in the water and they created a something to test it it was called the dilbert dunker and the reason it was a dilbert dunker is that dilbert was a cartoon that was done by the military somebody in the military osborne i think was his name the author and he had a little character named dilbert and dilbert did all the wrong things that an aviator should not do right so he made all the mistakes and that's how they taught people not to make those mistakes now when my boss suggested the name he did not remember at the time that he had seen it before as a comic the worst possible situation i could be it because i had already submitted it you know it had been accepted as a syndicated comic and then only then did he sheepishly come in and tell me he knows where the name came from in his own mind because years ago he'd seen in his father's uh old trunk of things from you know his father died in world war ii uh a trunk of materials from he saw like the actual dilbert comic and he realized he must have seen it before that moment on i said to myself oh no oh no uh i'm gonna get a suit because i'm using the same name and it's a comic if it had been the name of a diner like a dilbert diner that would have been okay a different business but it was also a comic so for years i would worry that somebody was going to come after me because it was too late to change it but it didn't happen and it never did and i finally figured out after 30 years i figured out why do you know why the original cartoonist who created dilbert or his family do you know why they never even never even contacted me ever somebody says copyright expired somebody said trademark was dead uh yeah so you got it it was a it was a government cartoon i already owned it so did you if you're an american you owned that cartoon nobody owned it because it was you know it was government property basically so there was nobody he made it under contract to the military i already owned it so did you so apparently there was no risk at all and i never came back to the market but i would like to tell you one more story maybe more uh from the life of michael j goodwin two i'm gonna give you two stories number one michael j goodwin taught me politics he taught me the only coherent political opinion i've ever heard because he used to vote even in all the local elections he voted in all the elections he was very republican and i used to ask him why do you bother doing that like do you even know what the issues are and he said no you know do you read all the the ballot initiatives and do you really know the ins and outs of why it's a good idea he said no and i said but you vote he goes yes they go how the hell do you vote in any rational way without knowing what all of these things do and then he told me the smartest thing i've ever heard in politics he said i vote against everything that raises my taxes or costs money because they already have enough money and i heard that and said well that's real ridiculous that's so crazy god damn it that's the best political opinion i've ever heard i've never heard a better political opinion and he implemented it like like he would actually go vote and he would just say all right raises taxes no doesn't raise taxes just a statement man okay yes what's that actually i don't know if he voted for anything i think he just voted against anything that cost money and now you could argue that hey there's exceptions there are things you really need money for to which he would say sure just use the money you have i'll bet you got something you could save some money on because he thought the government should operate just like you do if you don't have enough money for the new thing you have to spend less money on the old thing that's it just like every company every every household everybody else in the world makes do with what they have they don't just say give me some more interest and money they just make do so that was his philosophy i don't know if it was a good one or a bad one but it's the cleanest one i've ever heard of now let me i'm going to close on my favorite michael j goodwin um story he was working with me when i worked in a laboratory and part we were always connecting different equipment with cables and to see if this equipment works with this equipment you know do the protocols work etc and so mostly we're just testing different configurations of equipment and that required tools so we had a little tool drawer that would be the screwdrivers and stuff that we'd use for connecting equipment but there was a discussion in the lab there were just a handful of us who worked there about whether that drawer should be used for the tools or the screwdrivers mostly the screwdrivers uh or the snacks because we also kept some snacks in there and so we're laying that drawer should be the tool door or the snacks and so i thought i was pretty funny and i said well this question boils down to this would you rather screw or eat and i thought okay that's pretty fun right screwdrivers versus stacks would you rather screw or read and i thought i nailed it i i thought i'd i like to drop the mic it's like would you rather screw it drop the mic walk away and then michael goodwin said the funniest thing i've ever heard after i said would you rather screw the need he sat there and he said depends how hungry i am and with that one sentence michael goodwin described all of human nature there was nothing left there was no corner left unexplored there was no phenomenon left to be understood michael j goodwin magnificent bastard had described all of human nature with one sentence depends how hungry i am and so this man not only gave us the name for denver which i believe changed the world i do because if gilbert didn't have that name i'm not even sure if it would have worked honestly there's something about the name that gave it wait am i right could you imagine the deliberate comic with any other name it's hard to do isn't it there's something about that name that makes it work it is now because of that that allowed me to have some um exposure it allowed me to talk about politics you saw with your own eyes if you've been watching that i got some things done for example during the pandemic i recommended an executive order to drop the doctors couldn't make a phone call to help you across the state border which was done and so i recommended that during the pandemic and the president at the time signed an executive order and now tell them telehealth is a way bigger market should make a huge difference in people's lives eventually now that's just one thing there's there are other things that i managed to accomplish that i can't tell you about this is the good ones but trust me well that could be another example my book uh how to fill in almost everything is still win big it introduced the ideas of you know systems are better than goals and talent stacks now i don't think it's bragging to say that those two things made a huge difference in the world because i hear about it all the time you know talent stacks is the way smart people recommend anybody prepare their career now and the systems are better than goals pretty much has been adopted as the standard way of thinking of stuff none of that would have happened without michael goodwin so not only did he have the cleanest political opinion i've ever heard i vote against everything that raises my taxes he summed up all of human nature with one sentence depends how hungry i am he named dilbert which basically caused a chain of chain of action that brings us to this moment so i just had to honor him for that so you took his ideas he he gave me his ideas and all right so yes let's have a step to michael jane goodwin go and that is my show for the day youtube i'll see you tomorrow

everybody

so we've got a laggy bad wi-fi

connection here on locals and who knows

if

youtube is going to work but what i do

know is it's time for the simultaneous

except all you need is a copper glass or

mug a canteen jug or

flask a

something something something a vessel

of any kind

fill it with your favorite liquid

i like coffee

and

join me now for the unparalleled

pleasure the dope beauty of the day

thing makes everything better are you

ready

go

paper cup coffee

not as

good protein bar not my regular kind

everything's wrong

well yeah we'll talk about the great

replays man

so that seems to be the big story of the

day we've all been waiting for the hoax

of the day

this one seems to be based on

uh the shooting

of yet another little turd who's killing

people for no good reason

um

and this has caused cnn everybody to

blame it on tucker carlson

now is it my

imagination

or does the left think that tucker

carlson runs everything

because it seems to be that they believe

if they can take tucker carlson out

they can end the democrats you know

communication channel

and it's it's almost true isn't it

i feel like tucker carlson has become

the primary

republican voice for people who are

really

sort of watching things

but let's talk about that

so tucker carlson has spoken of this

so-called great replacement theory

would it be possible for me to speak

about it

without being accused of embracing it

what do you think

if i saw if i simply broached the topic

would i be accused of embracing it and

therefore

a white supremacist

it seems unlikely

i don't know if you've watched

there's there's a

a minor drama going on in my public life

uh there's a specific individual who i

won't name

who's who runs a little cult so he's a

cult leader of some sort he has a man

cult

and he's decided that he's really really

mad at me

for my uh support of masks during the

pandemic

which never happened

so there's an entire organization who

you know his members and his leader

attacked me on a regular basis they

created accounts on social media to come

after me and their biggest complaint

is how pro mask i was which actually

never happened

literally never happened

so i never recommended them never was in

favor of them i talked about it

i showed you some studies

but uh so so my life is uh

influenced by somebody who has a

completely wrong opinion and obviously

never really watched anything i said

but he's decided to wrap his life around

it

okay

all right

so there's somebody out there who's got

a like a whole mission to destroy me

based on

something imaginary

now that's my normal life

my normal life is people coming after me

for imaginary things it happens every

single day it's the hardest thing

so let's talk about replacement theory

so i saw uh tucker carlson talk about it

the following way

he described it as math

that if you're in the united states and

you have a vote

it wouldn't matter if you were democrat

or republican

and you add more people from other

countries

it will dilute your vote

because of math

now is there anybody who doubts the math

that there's an existing group of people

who could vote

and then you were to add new people to

that group wouldn't matter where they

came from

it wouldn't matter

would that group the original group have

less influence per person

is there anybody doubting the math

now my understanding is that

tucker just showed the math

and said well yes literally

literally and mathematically

no the math is that if you add something

to an existing group you dilute the

group

right

so that's not really a

that's not an opinion

so

so cnn has treated math like an opinion

no seriously

cnn's actual editorial opinion

is that math

and the result of it is racist

and that actually is the biggest story

today the cnn thinks bath is racist

because when

when tucker carlson

gives them a math lesson it's coming

from tucker carlson

so

i guess logically qed

therefore must be racist

now the part they don't say

is they're assuming that tucker

carlson's entire uh motivation

is to have fewer brown people and more

white people

has like him

said anything like that

that would be a different conversation

right because he does talk about culture

now

is it true that if you have an existing

culture

and you were to add people from a

different culture to it

would the existing culture stay exactly

the same

or would it change exactly the way we

like things to change which is we like

to be influenced by each other and

develop our own civilization

so if he says that the way things are

the culture would change

if you added people from a different

culture it wouldn't matter which one it

was

would it be different

yes and if you liked it the way it was

would you be happy that something

changed well people don't like change

if they're already happy they don't like

change

now which of those statements from

tucker are the big racist ones

the one that's math

if you add people to an existing group

it dilutes it

or the other one that's also basically

math which is you add different cultures

to an existing culture

probably the the average is going to

change a little bit

those literally are both math

and the plumes

yeah whatever happened to plume theory

all right you now you're going to make

me talk about it

did

did that uh the plume theory was that

how much coveted you got initially would

have a big impact on whether you got

sick

did that get debunked

because i thought that was basic

understanding i didn't think that was

even a question was it a basic

understanding that if your initial

contact was a little bit of virus

you could still get it

but if you got a little bit of virus

maybe your body could you know mount a

response a little better

than if you just slammed it with a ton

of virus

is that not true

it is getting infected with a tiny bit

of virus

exactly the same as taking a big swing

if you've been drinking on the cup

what do you think

now i think that it's probably different

because i haven't heard

i haven't heard anybody revise that to

me

now

i've seen david g do the lol putin

theory

if that's the best you have as your as

your counter lol

you don't have anything

because

do you know what argument i'm making

about masks

math it's math more viruses worse

less virus will give you a better

situation

does anybody argue with with the

let me see in the comments in the

comments

is it would you accept the assumption

that more exposure to virus initially is

worse yes or no

is more exposure initially worse for

your outcomes

give me your answers more exposure

better or

worse i'm saying people are saying yes

on locals

somebody says unknown well you know the

experts said it's worse

all right you two were seeing some no's

oh interesting

on youtube you're saying it that the

amount of initial virus doesn't matter

some people are saying that a lot of

people say yes

yeah the concentration and the amount

yes

all right

so

uh

more is worse yeah so i think you would

find more is worse there's no question

about that

now if you have a barrier which is

sending your plumes sideways and up and

down

instead of directly like a fire hose

into somebody's mouth when you're

talking to them which is likely to give

you more virus

when we measure masks

what do they measure

they measure infections don't they

do they measure outcomes

has anybody done a study that said that

the people who got it from somebody who

had a mask on

had as bad outcomes as somebody who got

it from somebody who had no mask

what do you think am i balls too yes i

balls in them

so

to me my argument is only math and

people have sent us an opinion

is math an opinion no math isn't a

opinion

it's math

tucker's opinions are math

my mask opinion is that i don't want one

and it didn't make enough difference

that i think it was useful

right so i've always been against them

but not because they make no difference

there are lots of things i'm against

they help a little

right they just don't help enough

somebody says this is not math

yes it is

i use math plus engineering

the engineering part's obvious

that the mask sends the plume

sideways it up

that part's obvious

because you can't blow out a candle with

a mask on

why does it not work the same with

omicron omicron is just catchier that's

all

right

now

statistics are an opinion

well

maybe it's an opinion about who did the

math right i suppose

all right only with a crappy mask i

suppose that's right too what else is

going on

all right so

um

it looks like this great replacement

thing will be the new cnn hoax or at

least they'll ride this for a while

and the republicans are trying to

respond by saying well you guys did some

bad stuff too that's not very strong

so wow

is that the best they have the great

replacement theory

um

scott krog says let's see how many

people agree with scott crock he says

scott let's be honest

you were pushing the vax pretty hard for

about two months all right those of you

who've watched me the entire time

how many of you uh agree with uh stupid

scott crock

how many say i was pushing the vaccine

pretty hard for two months

100 people who watch me every single day

on locals are saying no 100

100 scott

scott grog

so what the were you looking at

scott because it wasn't me

you must have you must have confused me

with because are the

people who won't say anything positive

about the thing they're against

right so scott you may be projecting

you may be projecting yes you're

projecting because you saw somebody

reasonably say huh you got this on this

side you got this on this side and you

saw that and you said well he must be a

idiot because he's looking at

both sides that's what you did that's

what you did scott

you look you saw somebody looking at

both sides

and you couldn't handle it because

you're a idiot

so don't come here

and tell me what i'm thinking when you

don't know and you don't understand

anything about the topic or how to talk

about topics so you don't not only do

you not understand about vaccines

probably probably

but you don't understand how people talk

you don't understand this thing a little

bit of something doesn't tell you

anything you don't understand a

thing about the world scott

so go away

please leave the broadcast

all right

um

yes i didn't give any medical advice

that i'm aware of

um

i saw the adam scrabble tweet today

and this is a two-part story

the first part is i saw an adam scrabble

tweet

do you know the last time i saw him

tweet

was

months ago

and then elon musk uh informed us that

if you tap that little star icon in the

top of your app for twitter

you can get it to give you your

your tweets chronologically just as they

come in instead of having the algorithm

decide what you see

and as soon as i turned off the

algorithm what do you know what happened

well there was an adam scrabble tweet

so for the first time

he wasn't blocked in months and months

so let me tell you what he said since i

got to see him for the first time in

months thank you twitter algorithm

um

so russia's current account

is at a record high

meeting you know cash that they're

getting in from exports

so from that one measure of russians uh

the russian economy it's doing better

than ever and that's just one

measurement within a larger economy

and then eurozone's plunged into a

record deficit

so that's not good

do you believe anything that comes out

of russia

because only russia would know what the

current account for russia is right or

is that something that everybody has

access to

to me it sounds like this is a whole

bunch of lies

let's talk about putin

dying

i saw a tweet which i tweeted

from somebody who i'll give you this

name jack hopkins

i don't know who he is he's he's a user

on twitter

but he didn't look crazy

and that and he said that he used to

manage an oncology floor

so apparently he spent years around

people who were known to be dying of

cancer

and he he shows a picture of putin's

face now all puffy looking

next to a picture of him from just two

years ago

and he says i've seen this look a

million times he's dying at some rate

basically has terminal something

probably cancer

do you buy that because somebody who

managed an oncology floor

says i've seen this look a million times

this is it what do you think

do you believe

somebody says altered photos well no all

of putin's photos have that same puffy

look lately

uh you believe he believes that he does

somebody says heart failure

does heart failure make you look puffy

um

it does okay and how about uh

how about cancer and steroids right make

you look puffy or something

so

my take on

putin from quite a while ago

was he looked like he was dying

do you remember when i was saying how

long ago was i saying that putin was

dying

six months ago

can somebody give me uh

when's the first time you heard me say

it

five months ago

six months ago or ish right

now when i said putin was dying six

months ago and you could tell because he

just looks it

where i said he was sick one or the

other

um

how many people agreed with me

if you wait longer he's done

and and i got mocked didn't i didn't

most people mock me

and my argument was that people can

identify illness

fairly well

and that just looking at them actually

is better than you think as as a way of

predicting heavy skills the humans

actually are pretty pretty good at

determining illness

just looking you don't have to be a

doctor in it

um yeah norm norma golf

yeah nor mcdonald puffed up

that's a actually i hate to say that was

a good example wasn't it

um

at first he said he thought he was on a

testosterone

well it looked like he was on

something looked like he was on

something

so

um

yeah so anyway there's i think there's a

big health problem

and the rumors about a

coup already starting

would make a little bit of sense

with the military

situation

here's a way to understand why russia's

military is not succeeding so well on

the battlefield

you ready for this

because they know that putin's a short

timer

that could be why russia is not

performing on the battlefield

because imagine that you are one of the

leaders

and you know that at the end of this

there's a really good chance you're

going to be brought up on war or crime

charges

pretty good chance

how would you play it if you thought

putin would only have a week or two left

in office

would you go balls to the wall

and do every

you know

military

war crime that you possibly could

or would you slow walk it

exactly

if you were a military leader and you

saw that putin was not going to last you

would slow walking

and it's hard to explain why the russian

military is doing so poorly

you know we we do know that the opinions

of american training nato training and

that and great weapons

maybe that's enough maybe they're just a

really really good

military the ukrainians that's entirely

possible that could be the entire

explanation

the other explanation

is that russia's military isn't exactly

taking orders from putin the way they

used to

the way they used to is if i don't do

this he's going to kill me

right

if i don't uh sacrifice a third of my

troops to take this

town i will personally be killed i'll be

jailed

so then you you sacrifice a third of

your troops because you got to do it

otherwise you die

but what happens if you think putin's

not going to last

do you sacrifice a third of your troops

or do you tell putin um there's some

something stopping you from attacking

uh yeah we're gonna attack as soon as

we get those new supplies you're sending

oh the new splice of the wrong kind

well as soon as

we get those new new supplies we're

totally going to attack that down and

take it even though a third of us will

die

it feels like russia started slow

walking the war

now remember that i told you this

and wait to see how long it takes for it

to be in the mainstream media

how long do you think it will take

because nobody said this yet right

i don't believe anybody has said that

the russian military is slowing down

because they also expect putin not to

last

well

i i think you'll see it by the end of

today

by the end of the day

all right

um would you like a movie recommendation

since i've told you that all movies suck

and they don't make good ones anymore

i actually watched a movie

last night on my ipad

there was a good movie

it's called uncharted

have you seen it

and you know i'll give away the

thing or anything so who's who's the uh

the young actor who played spider-man

recently

um

oh is that a cohen brothers yeah holland

right

tom holland

so tom holland uh is really fit i didn't

realize he was he was cut pretty well

and he plays a guy a normal guy

who is just really coordinated

just really really coordinated

and i love what they did with the action

scenes

because just making an ordinary guy just

really coordinated he just does lots of

things that really coordinated people

can do

and it's really fun to watch and i

you know i'm tired of movies

i'm tired of movies because

it's all the same movie there's somebody

tied to a chair

and torture

there's a car chasing

blah blah blah blah it's you know

there's one person fights against 25 and

beats them it's all the same

but this movie actually found a way

to create to create completely new

action scenes in the air

that they were pretty impressive

for uh it was very creative creative

movie i like

um but you have to you have to still

have to fast forward through all the

scene-setting scenes

you know when i when i come to a movie

if i'm watching it on my ipad and i'm

alone and you get to the part where

two people are showing how much they

love each other

like it might be you know same sex and

they're just best friends or something

but you get to see that you know that

really tender moments when they show

each other's love to each other

fast forward

i i don't really need to see

half a minute

of these two characters loving each

other i'm like i got it uh yeah two

those love each other got it got it

moved to the plot

i got it i got it and they love each

other i got it i got that in five

seconds

got it

move on

that's how i watch a movie now every

every time the scene is one that's gonna

be five minutes of really five seconds

fast forward

well here's another thing that i'm going

to claim some rightness on even though i

was totally wrong about ukraine

being invaded by russia in the first

place so that one doesn't go away from

my permanent record however

uh nato secretary general jens

stoltenberg

i guess yesterday today expressed hope

that ukraine will prevail against russia

as moscow's military events appears to

be stalling

so

so now important people are saying out

loud

that ukraine

looks like they have a good chance of

just winning the war

just already winning the law

[Music]

now

am i the rightest person in the world

about this

can anybody give me the name of anybody

let's say who does this for a living you

know people who talk in the public

domain

is there anybody you saw

anybody besides me

who said that ukraine would give them a

fair fight

anybody

but i'm sure there were a lot of

individuals but was there anybody

willing to say it

i think i'm the only person who was dumb

enough to say in public

malcolm nance but when did he say

bill barr on ben shapiro or are you

saying you like that show

yeah i care

i i think i i think i own that one i

believe so we still don't know if

ukraine will

well at this point let me ask you

at this point

would you say as of today

just rev forget any opinion you've ever

had before

forget all of your prior opinions if you

could

start today

is ukraine going to prevail in

maintaining themselves as a

essentially the same country

yes or no will ukraine prevail

as of today

looking at your comments i'm seeing uh

more yeses than those but less knows

and i think a no is a reasonable

you're still reasonable if you're saying

no

i i disagree with no but you are not

unreasonable with that opinion

yes without the east maybe

uh define prevail prevail means that

they're effectively still ukraine but

they may have lost some border territory

or not so whether or not they move loose

in border territory

that's not the question the question is

is it still ukraine

essentially

it looks i think yes i think they're

going to stay a country it looks like

so

that's what's going on let me see if

there's any headline that i would talk

about i'm not going to talk about this

shooter

[Music]

you know my idea

is there anything to say about yet

another match here

like i just don't i don't feel that i

should talk about it so

with your permission that's just not a

story for me

i mean it's obviously the story but

we're not going to give any more

attention

all right um

oh and everybody's gonna be talking

about free speech now johnny depp is

back

it was a video of johnny depp acting

really bad and slamming cabinets and

stuff uh

amber heard is testifying on the

infamous defecation allegation

well i've got a feeling that we're gonna

see some bad stuff about

johnny depp come out

wouldn't you say

yes amber turd uh it's gonna have some

bad stuff

so i don't think that either of them are

angels

but

um the video that she showed the one i

saw this morning so amber turd took some

you know secret video

of johnny depp being all mad at

something

and so the point of the video was to say

that he's like this angry guy who

punches cabinets and if he punches

cabinets well maybe he punches people

now

let me ask you

do you nobody who violently destroys

inanimate objects but would never hurt a

person

or an animal do you know anybody like

that

anybody

anybody who has a track record of

destroying inanimate objects

yet interestingly has no history of

hitting people

for any reason except self-defense

right

that's not that unusual

it's not that unusual but the video in

which johnny depp was in their kitchen

apparently and slamming cabinets and i

think he might have broken one

did you hear what he was saying

while he was doing that breaking of the

cabinets

he was saying that something happened to

him that morning that did not happen to

her in other words she did something

that morning pretty terrible

i think or something terrible happened

to him that had nothing to do with her

that's possible too

but it looked like she had done

something so horrible

he was in that mood and there was

something she caused

we didn't hear what the horrible thing

was but i think we will

we might

all right

um

so this baby formula thing

uh is it true that we can't ship in baby

formula from other countries because of

some

uh regulation

is that actually happening because

correct me if i'm wrong if we were to

ship in formula from other countries

we'd have enough

because it's not like

every other country has a shortage

sort of an american shortage because of

our companies that make it

so

uh

fda regulations yeah it's a labeling law

boy you know how long would it take

trump to sign an executive order to make

that go away

ten seconds

now the trouble is

well actually if you made that go away

you'd probably end up killing a bunch of

babies

yeah this is a tough one actually

because it's it's not that the fda does

nothing

but i feel like you'd be safe if they

just tested it

you know tested a couple of the bigger

brands and said okay don't send

everything

but it's okay these specific brands we

we took a weekend to look at them

i feel like they could do that

right they can't do a study in the

weekend but they could look to see if

there's anything in it that looks like a

contaminant i think they could do that

preferably shipped from the eu and not

china yeah except the eu probably got it

from china

all right uh reporter finds that

critical race theory ideas in 39 of the

top 50 medical schools

okay

um

there's a fentanyl awareness group i'm

looking at the fox news website in case

you're wondering where this has come

from there's a fentanyl awareness group

is asking biden to track uh overdose

deaths

which is weird because i thought we

already do that

because i always talk about that number

do we make that up

we don't track it

um

oh

so they won't count in the same way

all right i'm totally in favor of this

let me give my full throated support

uh literally yesterday

i was writing my book that i'm here

trying to write

and one of the things i was writing is

that if you and i've said this many

times

if you're not tracking it you're not

managing it

is that right if you're if you're not

measuring it you're not managing it

because you wouldn't know if you did x

or if you did y

if you change the thing you're trying to

change because you're not measuring it

if you didn't know why anything was

changing you wouldn't know if the thing

you're doing is making a difference

so

a good general rule is if you can't

measure it or you're not measuring it

you're not managing it

so if if this group is asking for

fentanyl to be reported and measured the

same way

that's a smart idea

because what is it that is so

frustrating about the fentanyl question

other than you know the obvious

what's frustrating is it doesn't look

like the government's doing something

does it

i i didn't by the way i said the same

thing about trump

trump talked about it and he asked china

to do something but nothing happened

literally nothing

so

you know we're not securing the border

we're not making china do anything

differently

nothing there's literally nothing being

done

so that's an unmanaged problem are you

surprised that something is not being

managed when it's not being measured and

reported in the way that important

things are

now was the was the pandemic unmanaged

no it was not

because we reported the piss out of it

didn't we

and the more you reported it the more

the

more the government had to only work on

that because that's what was getting

reported

so in many ways the media

has to

take some responsibility here because if

the media had treated fentanyl the way

it treats

cobalt

we'd probably be measuring it and

managing it by now

but you know the the press treats it as

a

you know another thing that's like all

the other things

it's like well more people died from

this defensive opening

it's no real story it's just more people

dying

and more isn't the story

the story is usually something different

happening not just more of the same

it feels like i'm on a boat yeah i'm

right by the ocean

so yes um let me say without knowing

anything about this story

that if we're not reporting fentanyl

deaths on the front page of

fox news and cnn

we're probably not we're probably not

managing it

oh this is the coolest thing somebody

asked me what's on my wrist

so it's been a while since i vacationed

at least in america

and

this is the greatest innovation for

being at a hotel

so this opens my door

and it's waterproof

so i can swim with it

now do you know how much pain in the ass

i've had trying to keep my little

uh door opening card

it's the worst thing i'm always losing

it

i probably de-magnetize one of those

door opening hotel cars

one out of three times that i travel

i probably put it in the wrong pocket

with my phone and demagnetize it

probably one out of three times

and then you get to your room you can't

it's just it's just the most annoying

thing about a hotel

is the stupid room card

done

and in fact it's so uh

it's so unobtrusive that i didn't

realize i still had it on and i slept

with it apparently

evidently

it's great

um let's see what cnn say in case

there's anything interesting

i doubt it

so

uh

yeah the shooter plans to shoot more

people blah blah blah sweden and nato

getting in obviously sweden and finland

getting into nato

but it doesn't look like

you know that alone is going to bother

russia

all right um

let me tell you the funniest exchange i

had on

twitter today

and it was regarding uh tucker carlson

so there was a user called savin

and

he was saying that uh tucker carlson you

know spits out conspiracy theories

and so i i responded to him

saying that tucker carlson spits out

conspiracy theories

i mentioned this you know i said is it

more than cnn

so i just wondered what his baseline was

if he's complaining about um tucker

carlson

creating

these um

conspiracy theories

does he think that cnn doesn't do it and

so

he responded

what has cnn done that has encouraged

bigotry and or mass shootings

were they too careful regarding coven

yes is that worse than bigotry

so yes that's a good question

what has cnn done that has encouraged

bigotry and or mass shootings

what have they done

well

there was the find people hopes there

was the drinking bleachers

there was a russia collusion hopes there

was a covington kid hoax there was the

russians paying bounties on american

soldiers

hoaxes

there was a car in the house that we

should go on

should i go on covington kids yes yes

um

and so

now not all those would of course

encourage uh a mass shooting but

likewise not everything that uh cn that

fox news says would encourage any mass

shootings

now

what exactly did tucker carlson say

allegedly that encourage and mass is

shooting

can anybody give me say

a quote

some kind of indication

that tucker carlson would be in favor of

mass shootings or even accidentally said

something that would encourage it can

somebody give me an example of that

because there's no example of

that

there's no example of that

no he has a strong opinion about

you know america first

and you can hate that or you could love

it

but it's completely transparent he's not

hiding anything

there's no go shoot anybody of that

that's just a perfectly

you know i'd say typical i'm not going

to say i agree with it or disagree with

it

it's just a typical opinion

and

none of that should cause anybody to

shoot anybody

so

um and i thought it was fascinating that

somebody could at this point

would not know that cnn is primarily a

hoax generating entity

how do you not know that

oh no jetblue is launching a hostile

takeover for spirit air

uh

so that's interesting

i always thought the spirit was a bad

name for an airline

because the thing that people are afraid

of with airlines is crashes

and you know and basically you turn from

a corporeal being into a spirit

and i'm not sure that was the best

brandon

um

let's say

there have been 201 mass shootings in

2022.

so

do you call it a mass shooting if it's a

like a drive-by

spraying of a crowd that's a mass

shooting right

how many of the 200

how many of the 200 were

of the mass shootings were caused by

white supremacists

what do you think

um it took cnn anchors over three

minutes to list all the u.s cities that

had mass shootings this year

and

uh but since all the news is about this

white supremacist guy allegedly

[Music]

um shouldn't we know of the 200 mass

shootings

how many of them were white supremacists

they don't count gang shootings

um

scott ritter on youtube yeah i've

checked out scott reader on youtube

i don't think anybody knows what's

happening there

they count gangs down

yeah

inflation's fixed

uh there's not much to talk about with

inflation because there's just more of

it

um

the thing here's the thing that

makes me crazy about

what's happening right now

you so we've had this long

debate about socialism versus capitalism

in this country right

is it my

uh imagination

or is the effect of everything that's

happening more socialism

that's that's the net effect right

um

inflation

should

is basically

taken by

my wealth down by a third maybe

what would you say so i'd say that

poor people are still poor

right so if you don't have much income

there's not not much lower you can go

you know you're scraping by

but if you're rich your

your wealth may have gone down by a

third or a half depending on what

business you're in

and that should vastly

you know close the gap so if you raise

taxes

on the reg you close the gap it gets you

closer to socialism a little bit

if you increase inflation

who who gets inflation hit the most it's

two different answers

who it hurts the most is the poor

right no doubt about that but the pain

is at the poor but in terms of

where the money disappears

more money disappears where there's more

money

so the the wealthy would you know shrink

by a third

the the poor would have more pain but

there's not there's nothing there to

shrink it's hardly any money

so

in a weird way it seems like everything

we're doing has this

similar follow-the-money effect

that it's a way to

keep the poor fed

and make them more dependent on the

government giving them direct direct

money

so basically the pandemic was a bunch of

money taken from rich people and given

to poor people

which i favor because you know you have

to keep everybody alive

you know

um maybe the way we did it could have

been a lot better i'm sure that's true

but

i don't object to the fact that rich

people were tapped

to give a little extra money

to keep people alive in this country you

know nobody's going to complain about

that

um

now when i say rich people were tapped

that's not exactly what happened because

we just you know created money out of

nothing and spent

but who pays for the who pays for the

inflation who pays for the higher taxes

who pays the deficit down

it's people who have money

right

poor people don't pay anything i mean

relatively speaking

so rich people are going to shoulder the

burden of all the inflation

well let's say 95

and

uh all the higher taxes 95

etc now i'm not complaining

uh i you know i'm i'm explaining

i'm explaining

that it appears that the biden

administration has found a stealthy way

to turn us into a socialist country

that's what it looks like

uh scott more poor are being created by

inflation

yes

yes so i'm not saying that more poor

people aren't created

i'm saying just again this is just a

math question it's not even an opinion

this is math

that the rich people have the money so

if somebody's going to pay taxes that

it's got to be from them

right that's where the money comes from

so again i'm not saying it's good or bad

or anything that's just what's happening

and

it's funny that we don't talk about it

that way

you you would expect that at least fox

news would be saying

that we turned into a socialist country

because or at least more of what we've

always had a lot of socialism

um

over where we want to be somebody says i

have my car my stocks my golf membership

none of this affected me what do you

mean you have stocks and you were

affected by the market downturn

i think you mean you're holding your

stocks

which would be actually

that would be a good a good opinion

so

um

i haven't looked at my stocks

normally i would look at my portfolio

every day

but i i've literally not opened the app

i have no idea what my

net worth is i don't know what i don't

know

and i'm not gonna look

i'm not gonna look until the headlines

say something like

the stocks are starting to reach their

old their old highs

then i'll start looking again

because if the the

the practice of investing

here's a little tip for you

i don't think you've ever heard it in

quite these terms mostly if you studied

economics maybe you did

but

the act of investing

is primarily about

managing your own psychology

you got that it's a little bit about

knowing what to invest in

but that's not hard because you could

just put it in a index fund and and be

done just walk away so it's not hard to

know what to invest in just diversify

you get a low cost

you know fund that tracks you know big

basket stocks and that's it

so knowing what to buy is easy

knowing when to buy it

is hard

knowing when to sell it or if to sell it

is hard because those are questions of

psychology

so investment

is not about knowing what to invest in

that's easy

unless you're dominant you're trying to

you know guess on certain companies

that's gambling

so gambling is hard if you're trying to

pick individual companies that will win

that's gambling

so that's hard

but it's easy to invest

just put it in an index fund and walk

away

so how do you manage your psychology

the number one way you do it is by not

looking at it

it took me

50 years to be able to do this for 40

years or something

i i probably couldn't do that

for about 40 years but now again

like i finally finally learned to not

look at it because if you look at it you

know what you're gonna think

oh

uh i'd better i'd better be selling

this thing right away before it all

disappears

now if you imagine if you made terrible

investments maybe that's true i don't

know but if you if you have an index

fund or a broad basket of stocks

i don't you're you the only way to

measure your own animal instincts is to

not look at it

and you should also be thinking in terms

of the five year

um

a five-year horizon

i i saw a tweet by nivall

recently he said

something like

dear god let me let me have one more

bubble

if you get one more good bubble you know

sort of ride it to what you think is the

top and then sell everything

you know maybe that's your best exit

strategy for retiring give me one more

bubble i just want one more bubble and

then i'll put it all in cash or put it

in my mattress or something

yeah

to state the obvious somebody

somebody very rude

in the comments said i could be dead in

five years

that's

yeah

so in five years i will be almost 70.

so yeah i could easily be dead in five

years

um oh oh

all right i just remembered something

so i'm going to take a a point of

point of privilege something called

point of personal presence i'm gonna i'm

gonna tell you something

that's not for your benefit

and it won't hurt you but

like usually i'm

presenting for you know what i imagine

you would like to hear

i'm going to give you one thing that's

purely selfish

the the man who came up with the name

dilbert for my comic strip which wasn't

me by the way it was suggested by my

ex-boss and co-worker

uh he passed away in february

his name is michael goodwin

i'd like to hear his name

and he was the person who came into my

cubicle that day and saw my drawing of

this character who became dilbert on my

whiteboard and i'd asked people to

suggest names

and he picked up my whiteboard

marker took the cover off they wrote

dilbert

on the board

and i've told this story the story

before

that when he wrote that word on the

board next to the character

i felt myself go down and tunnel

to the future

[Music]

and i could see that that was his actual

name in the future

it wasn't like coming up with a name it

didn't feel like assigning a name it

didn't feel like picking a name

it felt like

it's not just buffalo just hours after

that horror americans experienced at

least two more mass shootings in two

other cities

so far this

what it felt like was i literally went

to the future and saw dilbert as a huge

success

now i can tell you this a thousand times

and you're not going to believe that i

actually had that experience

i swear to i swear on everything holy my

dog

anything you want i actually saw the

future

now not literally i don't mean i

actually time travel

i mean that i saw clearly

that this character would succeed in the

future the name was dilbert it would

always be dilbert

and i was done

from that moment on

i never once imagined it wouldn't work

and the odds were

something like ten thousand one

so the odds were ten thousand to one

roughly that's actually a real real

number of succeeding you know in this

business

and

that's right

well

i'm not sure i'm not sure that wanting

and deciding

works in the case of cartooning because

other people have to make decisions

so other people have to say we like it

and we'll put it somewhere so i don't

have full control of that so that the

wanting versus deciding thing

uh works when you do have the full

control right so you could decide for

example

to build yourself up to enter a

weightlifting contest

and you know you just push hard enough

you could probably make that happen

but with cartooning you really have to

depend on luck and that there was

somebody out there who would support you

who liked what you're doing and that

part you can't control

uh i wonder if there are any other

dilberts there are there are people

named gilbert yeah and um uh

dilbert ground loop was an aviator

cartoon

it wasn't called dilbert ground loop was

it i think it was just called dilbert

and there in the navy there's a thing

called the dilbert dunker

has anybody heard of that the dilbert

dunker

uh it's been around since at least world

war ii

and the idea was that uh navy aviators

uh would have a risk of you know

crashing and being underwater in their

plane

and the pilots would have to figure out

how to get out of their cockpit while

they're submerged in the water and they

created a

something to test it it was called the

dilbert dunker

and the reason it was a dilbert dunker

is that dilbert was a cartoon that was

done by the military somebody in the

military osborne i think was his name

the author

and he had a little character named

dilbert and dilbert did all the wrong

things that an aviator should not do

right so he made all the mistakes and

that's how they taught people not to

make those mistakes

now when my boss suggested the name

he did not remember at the time that he

had seen it before

as a comic

the worst possible situation i could be

it because i had already submitted it

you know it had been accepted as a

syndicated comic and then only then

did he sheepishly come in and tell me he

knows where the name came from in his

own mind

because years ago he'd seen in his

father's uh old trunk of

things from you know his father died in

world war ii

uh a trunk of materials from he saw like

the actual dilbert comic and he realized

he must have seen it before

that moment on i said to myself oh no

oh no

uh i'm gonna get a suit

because i'm using the same name and it's

a comic if it had been the name of a

diner like a dilbert diner that would

have been okay

a different business

but it was also a comic

so

for years

i would worry that somebody was going to

come after me because it was too late to

change it

but it didn't happen

and it never did

and i finally figured out after 30 years

i figured out why

do you know why

the original cartoonist

who created dilbert or his family do you

know why they never even

never even contacted me ever

somebody says copyright expired somebody

said trademark was dead

uh yeah so you got it it was a it was a

government cartoon

i already owned it

so did you

if you're an american you owned that

cartoon

nobody owned it because it was you know

it was government property basically

so there was nobody

he made it under contract to the

military

i already owned it so did you

so apparently there was no risk at all

and i never came back to the market

but i would like to tell you one more

story maybe more

uh from the life of michael j goodwin

two i'm gonna give you two stories

number one

michael j goodwin taught me politics

he taught me the only coherent political

opinion i've ever heard

because he used to vote even in all the

local elections he voted in all the

elections he was very republican

and i used to ask him why do you bother

doing that like do you even know what

the issues are and he said no

[Music]

you know do you read all the the ballot

initiatives and do you really know the

ins and outs of why it's a good idea he

said no

and i said but you vote

he goes yes they go how the hell do you

vote

in any rational way without knowing what

all of these things do

and then he told me the smartest thing

i've ever heard in politics

he said i vote against everything that

raises my taxes or costs money

because they already have enough money

and i heard that and said well that's

real ridiculous

that's so crazy

god

damn it

that's the best political opinion i've

ever heard

i've never heard a better political

opinion

and he implemented it like like he would

actually go vote and he would just say

all right raises taxes no

doesn't raise taxes just a statement man

okay yes

what's that

actually i don't know if he voted for

anything i think he just voted against

anything that cost money

and

now you could argue

that hey

there's exceptions there are things you

really need money for to which he would

say sure just use the money you have

i'll bet you got something you could

save some money on

because he thought the government should

operate just like you do

if you don't have enough money for the

new thing

you have to spend less money on the old

thing

that's it just like every company every

every household everybody else in the

world makes do with what they have they

don't just say give me some more

interest and money they just make do

so that was his philosophy

i don't know if it was a good one or a

bad one but it's the cleanest one i've

ever heard of

now let me i'm going to close on my

favorite michael j goodwin

um

story

he was working with me

when i worked in a laboratory

and part we were always connecting

different equipment with cables and to

see if this equipment works with this

equipment you know do the protocols work

etc

and so mostly we're just testing

different configurations of equipment

and that required tools

so we had a little tool drawer that

would be the screwdrivers and stuff that

we'd use for connecting equipment

but there was a discussion in the lab

there were just a handful of us who

worked there

about whether that drawer should be used

for the tools

or the screwdrivers mostly the

screwdrivers

uh or the snacks

because we also kept some snacks in

there

and so we're laying that drawer should

be the tool door or the snacks and so i

thought i was pretty funny

and i said well this question boils down

to this

would you rather screw or eat

and i thought okay that's pretty fun

right screwdrivers versus stacks would

you rather screw or read and i thought i

nailed it

i i thought i'd i like to drop the mic

it's like would you rather screw it drop

the mic walk away

and then michael goodwin

said the funniest thing i've ever heard

after i said would you rather screw the

need he sat there and he said

depends how hungry i am

and with that one sentence

michael goodwin

described all of human nature

there was nothing left

there was no

corner left unexplored

there was no phenomenon left

to be understood

michael j goodwin

magnificent bastard

had described all of human nature with

one sentence

depends how hungry i am

and so this man not only

gave us the name for denver

which i believe changed the world

i do

because if gilbert didn't have that name

i'm not even sure if it would have

worked

honestly there's something about the

name that gave it

wait

am i right

could you imagine the deliberate comic

with any other name

it's hard to do isn't it there's

something about that name that makes it

work

it is

now because of that

that allowed me to have some

um exposure

it allowed me to talk about politics

you saw with your own eyes if you've

been watching

that i got some things done

[Music]

for example during the pandemic i

recommended

an executive order to drop the

doctors couldn't make a phone call to

help you across the state border which

was done

and so i recommended that during the

pandemic and the president at the time

signed an executive order and now tell

them telehealth is a way bigger market

should make a huge difference in

people's lives eventually

now that's just one thing

there's there are other things that i

managed to accomplish that i can't tell

you about

this is the good ones

but trust me

well that could be another example my

book uh how to fill in almost everything

is still win big it introduced the ideas

of you know systems are better than

goals

and talent stacks

now i don't think it's bragging

to say that those two things made a huge

difference in the world because i hear

about it all the time

you know talent stacks is the way

smart people recommend anybody prepare

their career now

and the systems are better than goals

pretty much has been adopted as the

standard way of

thinking of stuff

none of that would have happened

without michael goodwin

so not only did he have the cleanest

political opinion i've ever heard i vote

against everything that raises my taxes

he summed up all of human nature

with one sentence depends how hungry i

am

he named dilbert

which basically caused a chain of

chain of action

that brings us to this moment

so

i just had to honor him for that

so you took his ideas

he he gave me his ideas

and

[Music]

all right so yes let's have a step to

michael jane goodwin

go

and that is my show for the day youtube

i'll see you tomorrow