Back to episode — Episode 846 Scott Adams - Which Presidential Candidate Might Survive to Election Day, Social Distance
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All right, did you see the video of the Biden rally? You know there were some protesters. I forget what they were protesting but they held a big sign up and Joe got a little flustered. Did you see how he handled it? If you want to see who is not going to be your next president you have to watch that video. Watch Joe Biden try to not be Trump. Because Trump would have said hey, get those bums out o…
← Previous segment →All right, see what else we got here. Well looks like Russia is trying to attack the United States with oil prices. So I'm learning a little bit more about this situation. So if you're not up on it it goes like this. Every country that produces oil produces it at a different cost, partly because of the technology they use and partly because of how they're getting the oil. So it's expensive to get it in shale. It's less expensive some other ways. Russia as it turns out, both through investment and luck about the type of oil they have, has maybe the lowest, possibly the lowest production costs, or it's right in that category somewhere. And they've decided to start a price war because the U.S. shale business in particular had been so good that it was taking market share from Russia and everybody else. And we replaced Russia as the biggest producer. So Russia wants to find out how to get its money back. When oil prices are low, we're already low. So Russia was already in trouble because prices were low-ish. But they decided to go right at OPEC and Saudi Arabia by lowering them and starting a price war, which Saudi Arabia immediately matched. So we're in a price war. And if the price war continues it will bankrupt the shale producing parts of our energy industry, which is pretty big. It's going to bankrupt them. And this is really aggressive because the intention of Putin, according to the people who know what they're talking about, his intention is to bankrupt them. It's actually a direct, obvious, you know nobody's hiding the plan. But it's all legal because it's business, right? In business you're allowed to do whatever you want if it's legal. It's legal. And lowering your prices is completely legal. If Russia can do it they can do it. So they're going to take out our shale business, which is a continuation of this theme which you've seen under Trump, which is that all wars that can... let me say that again. I would say that the Trump doctrine, which has never been named, that I'm just going to name it that myself. Let's call it the Trump doctrine of war or the Trump war doctrine. Now of course I'm putting, I would be putting words into his mouth so this is not coming from the president or anything like it. But by observation I would say that Trump believes that all wars are economic wars. And that if you simply treat the economics as the war, well it's the war. So Russia basically just declared war on the United States. But I think we declared war on them first by taking over their primary business. Now here's the problem. A lot of smart people think the price of oil may never go up high again because there's just so much of it and we're so good at getting it and you know the economy is slowing down this year anyway and you know then there's green energy. We've got new developments in nuclear power etc. coming online all the time. But the problem is that Russia's income is selling weapons and oil pretty much. You know Russia is sort of like a criminal enterprise that sells oil and weapons. And if they can't sell oil and weapons and make money the whole country's in trouble. And guess what they can't do right now? Sell weapons and oil and make money. So the only two things that they can do that, because there's not a major war. Most of the big wars seem to be winding down now. I don't know this for sure but it seems like that would be bad for the arms business, the Russian arms business. Now it could be that they have a robust business even in peacetime as people are arming up. I don't know the details there. But I have to think that a peaceful world is bad for Russia because they sell arms. And obviously the oil situation would just put them out of business if it stayed low. So this is a really, really big change with COVID. And it gets it kind of speaks to this question which I've been asking for a long time, which is why are we enemies with Russia? You know I've been saying this forever. Why don't we just say hey Russia, you know if we get along we're both better off. It's obvious. So let's just get along. You can see we do it with our other allies. When we get along with them we all get rich. When we don't get along we don't. So let's just get along. Then I always wonder why wouldn't that work with Russia? And I think we just got the answer. The answer is they can't sell their oil if we're selling our oil to the same people. In other words Russia can't really coexist with the United States being a gigantic oil producer because they need all of that money to stay alive. So I'm not sure that they can be our economic partner because they have to compete with us so directly. It's way more directly than other countries compete with us and on that important industry, the energy. So maybe there's nothing we can do there where Russia will just always be enemies until one of us gets out of the oil business I guess. I think it comes down to that. So I think Russia, well let me say it directly, based on the current trajectory of things the Russian state is doomed, right? Because they can't survive low oil prices and it doesn't look like anything is going to change the low oil prices. So that doesn't mean that they won't actually do it because people are pretty good at scrambling and surviving and doing what they need to do. But the trajectory for Russia is doomed just if nothing big changes. And I don't see anything big that's going to change. So that's a big problem. Might make them more flexible but it might make them the opposite.
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Gavin Newsom did something that shocked and amazed me yesterday. The governor of California, much maligned, much criticized governor. And you know for context there are people like me who've been saying critical things about the homeless situation and nuclear energy and some other things. But with this coronavirus stuff he was giving a press conference, Gavin Newsom was, and he was asked whether P…
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