All right, let's talk about something else. Let's talk about that Turkey ceasefire that's not really a ceasefire. So according to the United States there's a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurds. According to the Kurds there's no ceasefire. There's just a... what's the difference between pausing firing at people and ceasing firing at people? Well I guess the ceasing maybe seems like it's less temporary than the pausing. Is there anything... you know, what's the difference? I have no idea what the difference is here.

Are some things you should know: when you have a ceasefire or a pause, what are the things you can guarantee the news will serve up? Are you ready? In that area of the world, the first thing you can guarantee is that one side will claim the other side bombed a hospital. Is there any chance that you're not going to hear that story? 100% chance that if there's a ceasefire in the Middle East, no matter who it is, somebody is going to say the other side bombed a hospital. Now of course that's exactly what is being claimed right now, that the Turks bombed a hospital during the ceasefire.

Now there's not a report that there's a ton of bombing going on. So the report is not that it's widespread bombing, you know they're bombing all over the place, but rather there's a report of a specific bombing. Now what are the odds that the Turks decided to do a ceasefire but also bomb just a hospital? We're not gonna bomb much, we'll just bomb a hospital. Does that seem likely? Seriously. Of all the things that they could bomb, they're not bombing everything there. They had apparently chose their targets very carefully because there wasn't much cheating. There was just a little bit of cheating and that little bit of cheating, they decided to bomb a hospital? No.

So you always expect the fake hospital bombing story every time. And sure enough, right on schedule. I'm looking for it. It's like, okay, where's the fake hospital bombing? Oh, there it is. Fake hospital bombing story right on schedule. What's the other fake story that you know is going to come? Oh it's already here. The fake story that Turkey is using chemical weapons. Now are they using chemical weapons? Could be. Could be. I think white phosphorus with the munitions. It's entirely possible that the Turks are using some illegal chemical weapons. But here's the context. What were the odds that whether or not anybody used any chemical weapons, what are the odds that you would hear a report within 24 hours of the ceasefire that somebody had used chemical weapons? A hundred percent. There was a hundred percent chance that somebody was going to claim the other side used chemical weapons.

And so I pick up my news source, my iPad, and they say, huh, it's been a few hours since the ceasefire. Where's the report of the... there it is. Chemical weapons. Hospital report. Chemical weapons. Right on schedule. Now I'm not saying those things didn't happen. I'm not going to say a hospital wasn't bombed and I'm not going to tell you that nobody used chemical weapons. I will tell you that there's a hundred percent chance both of those things would be reported in the past 24 hours whether they happen or not. So can you determine if a hospital had been bombed or if somebody had used chemical weapons? You cannot. You cannot. There is zero useful information coming out of the area. We can't rule... now you just don't have any information.

Do you think that we really have some kind of an agreement? Meaning do you think Mike Pence has something like an actual agreement with the Turks and the Kurds and whoever else? There's not a chance. There's not a chance that there's an agreement. There's no chance. And what you should expect is that everybody involved will start telling different stories about who agreed to what, who said what, who's gonna do what. And then everybody will wait a few days and go back to doing whatever they wanted to do anyway. So you know, maybe it gives the Kurds a little time to build some defenses or something. But I don't think Turkey's gonna have a ceasefire that lasts. Do you?