oing that, but I don't know if it's all Russia or just happens on its own.

I figured out with a little help why the polls that should all look the same, let's say presidential polls, if they're all done scientifically and appropriately they should all be pretty similar, but sometimes they're not. And here's one reason why not. So the pollsters can determine how to weight their results. So for example they can ask a bunch of people and they could find out that they had accidentally talked to too many people in one party, and they could either just report it, say well you know we had too many people in one party but here's what we got. Well that wouldn't really tell you anything because you expect the people in one party to vote one way predictably. So if you were to take that approach that would suggest you were not interested in a real answer but rather were interested in influencing what people thought about the situation. So that'd be the opposite of a poll. It would be persuasion.

Another way you could weight them is by the percentage of people who voted in the most recent election. So you could say well in 2020 the total votes were this percentage Democrat and that percentage Republican. So you could use that and that wouldn't be a bad assumption, would it? That there would be roughly the same mix as there was in the most recent election. Wouldn't change that much in a few years. So that's a reasonable way.

But here's another way you could do it. You could weight it by likely voters. So you could balance it by the correct number of Democrats to Republicans to Independents, but then you've got a problem because the Independents are not really Independents, are they? So couldn't you accidentally have gotten a whole bunch of Independents who really are just Democrats? They just don't like to say they're Democrats. So you wouldn't necessarily know that, would you? You wouldn't know if you accidentally talked to too many Democrats. They just happen to call themselves Independents because half the country is calling themselves Independents. So that's the problem.

So you can weight it by likely voters. You can do it by 2020 mix or you could not weight them at all. How different do you think those answers would be? Pretty different, yeah, quite different. So here's my question. Are these polls telling you what is, or is their selection of what assumptions they make really the whole poll? Was there any even reason to even talk to the public? Because once you made an assumption about what your weighting would be, you kind of already knew how it was going to come out by the assumption.

So as a person who used to collect information for corporate bosses for many years, that was my job, let me tell you it's always the assumptions that determine the result. The public believes it's the data. Nope. If it were the data everybody would get the same answer and if they didn't they would know why pretty quickly. It's like, oh you wrote that data down wrong. Look, here's the real data. You got that wrong. No, it's the assumptions. It's the same thing with climate change. Polling and climate change have the same problem. The person who makes the assumptions decides what the outcome will be. It's not the data.

Jordan Peterson is predicting that Biden is going to quit in a few weeks so that we can have, quote, Vice President Kacklin' Kamala as the first US DEI Barbie president. Well, Jordan Peterson, don't hold back. Tell us what you're really feeling here. I feel like you're just holding back too much.

I would add to that what others have added to it. I think by now that maybe the reason Hunter decided to wrap up his situation and plead guilty without saying he's actually guilty in that weird legal way, that maybe he just wants to wrap things up so he'll have time for his father to pardon him before he leaves from office. And I think that is a reasonably good prediction. I don't think it's 100%, but if I had to make a small bet on it I would bet that he will quit in time to give Kamala a boost for having already been the first black woman president. So we might get one of those kind of through the back door.

Biden was giving a little rally speech in favor of Harris and he said out loud that the Inflation Reduction Act was really just a fake and it was really the Green New Deal bill basically. And it wasn't really to reduce any inflation. So how long do we wait between the time that the Democrats make claims that the news supports to the point where the Democrats themselves can just say, well you know actually we made all that up. It wasn't even about inflation reduction. Now it's not that we didn't figure it out, but when I say we I mean the people who really paid attention to the news. But the average voter probably thought, hey look at that, them reducing inflation. Good job, Biden.

I saw Peter St. Onge. He's on X. He's got some videos on various topics, PhD, and he was noting that weak men and single women tend to vote left, and not just