y by the way. How did you like my take? I guess I'll just ask you how you liked it. What do you think of my take? That I was blinded to the persuasion for all the obvious reasons. I'm not the target of it and because I'm not the target that's not a good excuse because I do know enough about persuasion I should have seen it. I should have picked that up honestly. But I think maybe I was picking it up subconsciously because remember I was very unique in not having a prediction about a red wave. Is there anybody else who is notable in the prediction world who also did not predict a red wave? Nate Silver but his was based on data. Michael Moore yep. Interesting.

All right let me ask you this. Did Michael Moore do it again? I don't know if he was right on his reason because I think he thought abortion was going to be the driving thing but he might have been right about that. He might have been right that that two or three percent was all it took.

Are you admitting you are lacking in persuasion analysis in this case? I missed the signals yes but I don't think I missed them enough that I made the wrong prediction. I knew to not predict because there was just something about this situation that wasn't, I couldn't put my finger on it. Just wasn't something working. But now after the fact it's a little clearer. After the fact you know your analysis could be a little bit better. But I would ask you this. Every time somebody is this wrong can you adjust to you believe in the future, right? If I had told you there was a red wave I would be pretty embarrassed today and I would probably have to tell you honestly that you should discount what I predict in the future. But the fact that I was one of the few people who did not predict a red wave I feel like you should take that into consideration too. Oh you're right I wouldn't be embarrassed. Yeah yeah I guess that was hyperbole. Yeah I don't really get embarrassed by anything but you get the point. I would have been wrong.

Even Jim Cramer is right once in a while somebody says.

Now let me ask you this. What happens if Kari Lake loses? So that's still possible, right? Or actually probable I think given her current situation. If she loses what are the odds she wouldn't be the vice president pick for Trump? Now he'd still have to get through the primaries before that matters but what are the odds that that wouldn't happen? Now let me tell you a play that Trump could do that he won't but if Trump wanted to change his reputation from half of the country thinking he's the worst thing that ever happened to Earth here's how he could do it. Run for election with Kari Lake as his vice president, win the election and resign. Win the election and resign. And then Trump would give you the first female president and he would be George Washington. He would be George Washington. He would walk away from power after putting a woman in power. Just think about it. Imagine him being the person who put a woman in the presidency. His own decision. Nobody else's. His own personal. Nobody else in the world decided. He personally could make her president and then he does it. It'll never happen. I agree it'll never happen but it's there. It's free money. He could retire as George Washington. People would go nuts. The heads would explode. Now I agree with you the people who like Trump like him because he's not like that. He's just always Trump. He's Trump today. He's Trump tomorrow. He'll be Trump next week and that's part of his appeal honestly. So I don't think he can do that.

All right here's another way Trump could easily win the election but it also requires him to do something Trump isn't going to do. All right but here's how easy it would be. You know I have to be honest I may have pushed those vaccinations too hard and I apologize for that. Now you can still say it's up to you. I got them. I did what I thought was the best thing to do but I have to admit that this didn't work out as well as I thought. He could actually just claim that that didn't work out. The second thing he could do is admit that he's getting people all worked up about racism and he wishes he had. All he'd have to do to talk about border and immigration is just stop saying they're sending their worst people. Will you just stop saying that? Like the first time you said it I feel like it was good provocation like it really brought all the energy to him and they'd fight over whether that was true or hyperbole and blah blah blah. Maybe it kind of worked for him but at this point it just looks racist. I don't think that's why he says it but he has to know by now how it sounds to the other team. All he'd have to do is say you know what the people coming across the border are like a gift to this country. We should have more but we should do it the right way. It's just so easy. I mean he could win everything just by being uncharacteristically humble which isn't going to happen, right? But is it? I find it fascinating to know how easily he could win everything. All he'd have to do is just act normal for a while and even if it's acting he knows how to act so he could do it. Yeah. And all the people who say I'll never vote for him because of the thing he did or the thing he didn't do it all depends who he's running against. If he runs against a Democrat you're going to be like ah damn it it's not my first choice but I don't want that Democrat over there. So if he gets in the race he could definitely win the race. I think getting in the nomination would be the hard part. Winning the race might be the easy part in the end. But yes I would say this. If Trump acts exactly like he's always acted he probably would lose to any Democrat. What do you say? If Trump acts the way he's always acted he would lose to any Democrat because he lost to Biden by acting that way. If you lose to Biden whatever you did was the wrong thing to do. But again what makes Trump Trump is he doesn't change and there is value in that. There's