Back to episode — Episode 1922 Scott Adams - Red Wave Blues And Signals Everyone Missed. Persuasion Filter - ON
Context —
candidate matter? Nope. Didn't matter at all. So everybody who says the quality of the candidate matters, they're right unless there's some other thing that matters more. Now, which makes it almost worthless, right? Isn't the Yogi Berra famous saying good pitching beats good hitting and vice versa? Is that Yogi Berra or somebody else? But the thinking is that, and let me say that again, a good ca…
← Previous segment →rashed every day by his critics. Most people couldn't handle that. But he can. So apparently he's got some kind of control over his ego where he can mock himself and he can still make the joke after the fact. You know if his people had won he would have taken full credit and he would have done it with a smile and those who knew him would have known oh he doesn't mean it or maybe he does a little bit but he knows he's having fun with it, right? You would know he was having fun with it.
Somebody says but your record not good. Well your record's not good. You talking about me? Anybody who tells me my prediction record is not good means that they only know about some of my predictions generally. That's all it means. I don't even know if my record is good but I know that the people who say it's bad are never aware of my actual record.
Mike Cernovich said this on Twitter today after the results are mostly in. He said Trump has zero shot at 2024 general after tonight. This is enough for debate. I was around in 2015 when he had quote no chance and accurately said he'd win. True statement. And he threw the biggest inauguration event in 2017 but he says times change or he changed or whatever but it's time to move on.
What do you think? Let me poll you before I give you my opinion. Does Trump now have zero chance of winning because he's going to get blamed for the midterms because he promoted some candidates that lost and maybe it was their loyalty to him that was his main consideration and that's how it's going to be interpreted? A lot of people saying zero. Okay now everybody who's at zero hold on for a second. Hold your answers for a second. So everybody who says zero, who would you vote for if he's running against a Democrat? Would you not vote for him because you'd vote for the Democrat? How many of you will now vote for the Democrat no matter who it is if Trump is the other one? Nobody. Nobody. Yeah. Everybody who says Trump has zero chance, totally wrong. You're totally wrong.
Now I don't normally disagree with Mike Cernovich. You've probably noticed that, right? I'm going to agree with him most of the time. But one thing you need to know about him is he's one of the strongest persuaders in the country, right? His persuasion game, his actual technical knowledge of how to do it is one of the best in the country. So in the political context he's persuading as well as giving you his opinion and sometimes it's more persuasion and sometimes it's more opinion. It's a little hard to know with people who are good at it. It's a little hard to know exactly when they're doing what. But I think this is more persuasion than prediction. Would you agree? Because two years is a long time. Do you know it's a long time? A week. Everything you know about everything could be wrong in a week, am I right? Everything we knew about the midterms was wrong today. In 24 hours everything you knew about politics changed, am I right? Everything you knew about politics just changed in one day. So if you say that Trump can't win based on what's happening today I think that ignores the function of time and what we've observed for quite a while now which is things can change radically and quickly and you don't predict it. So yes he could win.
All right. Now here's the second question. Can win doesn't mean will win, right? Can doesn't mean will. If DeSantis primaried him, which I'm not going to predict. I don't predict it. I don't rule it out but I don't predict it. So remember I said that. I don't rule it out but I don't predict it. That's a hard one because you could imagine DeSantis getting enough pressure that even if he had decided not to maybe he could change his mind. You know, good of the country, it's the right time, sort of thing. But do you think he could primary Trump successfully? Who would win in the primary, DeSantis or Trump? DeSantis or Trump in the primaries? Most of you are saying Trump. It looks like about two-thirds or more saying Trump. Now it's evening out. I'm just, it's hard to tell just by the answers. All right so it's mixed. It's mixed.
Here's the answer. They both could win. Yeah I think that was not as obvious as anybody thinks. They both could win. The way that DeSantis could win is to say I'm Trump without the bad parts and then it's just over. Now I'm not saying that's a true statement or that you should believe it because Trump does have some things which are unmatchable, right? Trump is a little unmatchable in some categories of things. But if that was the pitch, if DeSantis says look I'll give you all the good of Trump but without the downside, I think he just walks to the nomination. I think if he played it that way he just walks into the nomination honestly. I don't even think it would be close. But I don't think he would play it that way. I think he'd play it more traditionally and then it's anybody's guess.
He already is. And the fact that our elections are always close, this was really probably the greatest affirmation of democracy that I've ever seen. Would you agree? I feel like yeah that our system just totally showed itself as strong. And once again big applause for the founders who hundreds of years ago built a system to last the test of time and it did. So far so good. I think that our republic is the strongest it's been in a long time. Like right today this is actually a really really positive thing because not only did the Republicans find some humility but I think everybody did.
Context —
The one thing that everybody needed, both the Republicans and Democrats and Scott needs this too and all of the public, all the pundits, right? So I'm in this category. I'm going to criticize. You know what we all needed? There's one thing we all needed. A big old dose of humility. That's what we all needed, right? We all needed to be a little bit wrong and just have it slapped in our faces, right…
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