Back to episode — Episode 1922 Scott Adams - Red Wave Blues And Signals Everyone Missed. Persuasion Filter - ON
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the highest level of understanding, all you need is a cup or a glass or a tank or a chalice or a stein or a canteen, a trucker's flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit or the other thing that makes everything better except the midterms. It's called the simultaneous sip. It happens now. Ah ye…
← Previous segment →spirits and make everything better. Maybe. We'll see. I don't know if you heard there was an election last night. I think Ben Shapiro summed it up best in a tweet as he was watching the results come in. He said, from red wave to red wedding. Now if you don't watch Game of Thrones that meant nothing to you. If you do watch Game of Thrones, pretty darn clever. The red wedding was a bloody massacre in that.
Can somebody confirm something for me before I get ripped apart today? I need you to be my memory. I believe I never predicted a red wave. Is that true or do I have a false memory about my own performance? True, mostly. Jeez Louise, he says. Yeah, yeah. I couldn't remember if there was any time I did, but my memory was never being confident it was going to happen. I was never confident it was going to be a red wave and I'll tell you why. Because once again the persuasion filter just sees things different than the fact filter. So I was never feeling it. I never once felt a red wave like in my bones. I saw the same thing you saw. I saw the experts. I saw the polls. I never really felt it. Never really felt it. So I'm not surprised at all.
Let me ask you, how many of you are surprised at the result? I was completely open to this going either way. Yeah, yeah.
All right, well we'll talk about all of this. So let's see if we can learn from our mistakes, okay? Let's be the only people on the internet who can learn from our mistakes. And as I tweeted this morning, if you believe the experts, the non-red wave is a surprise, right? Anybody who believed the experts was surprised today. How have the experts done in the last few years? What would you say? Have the experts been nailing it, batting a thousand, doing real good? If you would bet against the experts on literally everything, how would you have done? Suppose you didn't even know what the issues were. You weren't paying attention to anything and you just cast a bet against the consensus of the experts just every time on COVID, on politics, on the economy, just every time. How would you do? You would have had a positive record. No, it wouldn't be a coin flip. It would not be a coin flip. You would have probably a, I don't know, two-thirds success rate, two in three, something like that. Yeah. Following the experts is a terrible idea lately. Maybe the worst it's
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ever been. I don't know. If you believe that facts are more important than feelings, how'd you do? How are the facts of how the country is doing? And if you believe the facts said, oh there's all this crime and inflation in the economy, if you thought the facts were going to tell you how the midterms would come out, how'd that go? Didn't work at all, did it? Completely non-predictive, right? So…
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