s. And the corollary to that is that the insurance industry is the only one who's going to tell you the truth. Which is weird because there are not many entities that I trust less than insurance companies. But there's one thing I do trust. They like to make money. They do. They like to make money. And so they are really, really serious about getting the risks and data correct. And they have something that you don't have. Their internal data.

So they can look at their internal data and match it to whatever the CDC or the government is saying and they can say huh something wrong with that CDC data. And then they can make a wiser decision because they're going to have two choices. You might have only one.

So if you see the insurance industry start to move in one direction as a whole, I wouldn't necessarily listen to one insurance company but if you see the entire industry say uh-huh we're going this way because that's where the risk was. Sorry, I'm sorry popular narrative but we're here to make money. We're not here to support the narrative. And unfortunately our data is moving the narrative over here. Sorry about that.

And we're seeing the beginning of what that might look like. I'm going to call on herd mentality for insurance companies. Herd mentality is very much a thing, right? So herd mentality very much affects things in my opinion. In my opinion insurance companies are as close to immune to that as you could be. Because if you're the actuary you need to get it right. You need to get it right. Your money depends on it. And I think that you would become very unwoke the moment your bonus directly depends on getting it right.

Now if one insurance company gets it wrong I might say there's somebody who's too woke. But if the entire group of them, if all of the insurance companies as a group start moving in the same direction, I'm going to listen to that. Because let's follow the money, business. And the question that they're working on is the excess deaths. And whether it's, you know, I suppose one part of the country thinks it's because people are unvaccinated. Another part of the country thinks the excess deaths are because they're vaccinated. I will not get into that debate today. I'll just say that the insurance companies are going to settle that question for you. They have not done that. They have not yet done it. But I guarantee you the insurance industry is going to settle this question. Maybe in a year, maybe in two years, but they will settle this question. I'm pretty sure. I'm confident they can do that as a whole.

All right now I'd like to totally screw up a narrative that you've been enjoying for a long time. Has to do with George Soros. And I finally figured out a narrative that explains all the observations. My problem with the Soros criticisms is that it didn't match all the data that I could see that was available to everybody. Did not match the narrative. And I was looking for some kind of explanation that would make sense for why Soros is in fact, so this is part that I'm now on board with it. It is in fact true that Soros is giving money to groups that let's say are getting your liberal prosecutors in office and creating more crime and all kinds of problems. And when Soros was asked about that he didn't have a coherent answer. And that was my first flag that said wait a minute he doesn't even have a coherent answer. Because the worst person in the world has a reason. Am I wrong?

If you talk to Adolf Hitler he had a reason. He could at least explain it. It was a terrible reason but he could explain it. Soros can't even explain it. What does that tell you? I'm going to eliminate evil genius from the options that I'm considering. I don't think evil genius is what's going on.

The other explanations of he wants power. Here's my personal take on that. People who are that rich, that rich and that old are not looking for power. That's a dumb narrative. I would let's say imagine yourself. I'll do this in terms of allowing you to imagine it. Imagine you have so many billions that you'll never lose them and you can do anything you want. Money is no longer any object to you. You have all the money you want. So much money that you're trying to give it away as fast as you can. You have only a few years to live. Few years to live and you know it.

Do you think that George Soros with a few years to live is looking for personal power? I would call that a really low likelihood. I think what he cares about is the world he leaves to his children. I think the most realistic assumption, remember we can't read his mind so everything I say about what he's thinking is speculation just like you, right? If you think you know what he's thinking or what his motives are that's speculation. Everything I say is also equal to that.

So would you agree with me first of all that anything I say about what his motives might be I can't know. I'm speculating. So I'm saying that all of our speculation should be treated as equal. Would you give me that? Would you give me that we can't know what he's thinking so that all of our speculations start out being equally sketchy? The only thing I'm going to offer you is that the explanation I'm going to fill out here when I'm done will fit all of the data and that all of the other narratives don't fit the data. That's all I'm going to say. I'm not saying that's what he's really thinking.

And this is an important point. If I told you I knew what he's thinking that would be crazy and that would be bad form. But if I tell you there's one explanation that fits what we observe and all the rest do not, I think that that moves the ball. So that's what I'm doing.

Here's my hypothesis. You ready for this? The only thing that fits all the data is that whoever it is who makes the detailed recommendations of where his money goes, it's not Soros himself. Soros is not investigating organizations and looking at grants. He's just sort of you know blessing them when they happen. The only explanation that makes sense is that whoever is doing the grants is getting a kickback from the organizations that they're funding.

Do you know why that fits all the data? Because it would give you a reason why Soros is funding so many disreputable groups. Because what kind of a group could give you a kickback? Now what I mean by kickback is this. If you imagine that Soros owns the money but he's authorized some group to decide how to distribute it, the group that decides how to distribute it could either do it honestly and just get their paycheck or they could look for groups that will give them money back personally like a bribe. And they'll say if you give us 10 million dollars of Soros's money we'll make sure that an entity that you're involved with will somehow coincidentally get a million dollar contract that they wouldn't have gotten otherwise.

You see how easy this is. If you're the group in charge of who gets the money you would go for the ones that are the most sketchy, the most corrupt. You would intentionally seek out the most corrupt people to give the money to. Not all of it, not all of it because you want to cover your tracks by giving money to some groups that are unambiguously good. So you'd have you know let's say 30 groups or whatever. You know 28 of them are unambiguously good but you find a few sketchy ones that'll give you a million dollars back in ways that can't be traced, right?

Would Soros himself be aware of that? No he would not. Because he's not on the ball. The one thing I can tell you for sure is he's not quite all there yet in the way he used to be. I don't know how smart he used to be. I imagine he was quite brilliant. I think that's what we all understand. But he doesn't look it at the moment. And to me it looks like anybody could tell him anything and he'd probably believe it because he's that old.

So if the people giving out the money would say to him hey people are saying that you know we're just creating more crime by getting all these prosecutors their jobs. What do you think? What do you think those people tell Soros? I think those people tell Soros it isn't so bad or it's temporary or mostly it works but yeah in this one case it didn't. Don't you think he's getting a completely different story about how bad it is?

And if he looked at the headlines, the headlines on the people he doesn't trust. If you're George Soros most of the news about you is fake in my opinion. In my opinion most of the news about Soros is fake. So he probably doesn't even look at the news to get any information because it's all fake. Who is he going to trust? Well the people he hired. The people he hired are gonna say everything's fine. Don't believe the news. You know we're giving it to really good organizations. We checked them really carefully. We audit them every day. Don't worry about it. We got this under control. That's just, it's just the fake news. It's just Fox News. It's just rumors on the internet.

So here is my proposition. My explanation which I can't confirm in any way is just an allegation. My explanation fits all the data because the part I did not understand is why Soros could not explain why he's doing something clearly bad. Let's say the prosecutors who are letting people out of jail and making crime spike. There's no way he's in favor of that. No way he's in favor of that. He either doesn't understand it, doesn't know what's happening, somebody's you know gaslighting him locally, something like that.

If you tell me he's in it for the power you have to explain to me why there are zero 90 plus year old billionaires fighting for power while giving away most of their fortune at the same time. That's the Bill Gates problem. If you think Bill Gates is fighting for power while giving away most of his fortune I just don't see it. It just doesn't look even logical to me.

And part of that is because my perspective is as someone who used to not have money and then was lucky enough to get relatively rich. Not as rich as those guys you know nowhere near it. But I know what it's like to get rich and I know that it doesn't make you evil. You know if you're evil when you started maybe. But it does make you want to do things for the rest of the world.

I actually think that both Soros and Bill Gates are completely interested in what's best for the world. But also would be good for them wouldn't it? But I don't think they're in it for the money and I don't think if they're in it for the power. I think they're in it for the credit that you get when you make the world a better place.

Has anybody figured out what I'm in it for? What do you think I'm in it for? Like I spend all this time preparing and doing work in public. It costs me a great deal of money. What do you think I'm in it for? Yeah I would love for people to say you did a good job Scott. Good job. You helped the public.

Yeah now somebody's saying it's for ego. Maybe. Here's how I internally understand it. I believe that once you've taken care of your own needs you naturally take care of your family, the people closest. Once you've taken care of yourself and your family and you still have stuff left over I believe there's an instinct to help the larger group, the tribe.

So what you say is ego I say is instinct. And I think that Gates and Soros are also working on instinct but it looks exactly like ego to you. Here's why I say that. Because I've experienced it. And if there's anybody here who's experienced getting rich when they didn't start that way ask yourself did you help other people? If you did because of ego or because of instinct. It feels like instinct because I could tell you I had a very like profound experience when I had more money than I needed. Like because it happened kind of instantly. It was like winning a lottery because for me it was a very big check from a publisher early in my career where I said this check is so big I might not have to work again if I don't want to.

And in that moment I lost all of my incentive that I had always had all my life. Because everything I'd done up to the point was to make myself successful. And then I succeeded. And then what the hell do you do? What do you do if your life mission is to become successful? What happens if it works? If it works suddenly I had this like transformation. My b