razy on coal as long as it takes to make Russia irrelevant I guess. Or fight the war on the climate and let Ukraine go to Russia which is what would happen.

Here's an interesting take on — again you can see this in my Twitter feed — that who wins a modern war is who has the most ammunition and that's about pretty much all there is to it. That a modern war between two modernish armies like Ukraine and Russia, that all that will matter is who has the most ammunition because they'll both just keep firing at each other until they're out. And I thought that might be the simplest explanation of how to predict how this ends.

But here's the bad news if you like Ukraine. Apparently Russia has really really good resources for creating ammunition as they need it. So they had a lot to begin with but they can also make it as they need it. The West apparently has enough for a few days and then no ability to make it. So the West doesn't even have the ability to fight a war. We would just run out of ammunition. Now that's not as big a deal if you're the United States because you have nuclear-powered submarines and so nobody's going to attack the homeland of a nuclear-powered country with the Second Amendment. But if we got into a traditional war with Russia we would run out of ammunition. So unless we somehow won right away we would just run out of artillery.

So if you have a war that lasts a long time all that matters is your manufacturing capacity. And we're in a war that lasts a long time. So that would tell you that Russia is just going to chew up Ukraine at its leisure and nothing would stop it. And I think that's the way it would look if you were to straight line it and nothing changed. That's what it looks like. But of course there are always surprises so you can't straight line anything.

Here's something interesting. My live stream from the other day was turned into a transcript on RealClear Politics and then it got tweeted around. Now when you change this form, the spoken form, into a transcript sometimes it makes it more powerful because people prefer consuming stuff that way. And so it took my relatively inert idea about having Trump not run for president but create a news platform that would have honest debate on topics but more interesting honest debates and basically control the world through controlling the news because somebody needs to do it. And that idea was strong enough that somebody turned it into a transcript and then people liked it more and they're tweeting it around now.

The moral of the story, there's a higher level than the story itself, is that the person who writes something down is the most influential. It's one of the most consiste