Back to episode — Episode 1658 Scott Adams - Freedom, Fuel, Fake News, Ukraine, The Squad Effect, Unwoke Immigrants
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ews and he would say, "And Spain's Francisco Franco is still dead." Which was hilarious back in those days. The point is that what we consider funny really changes over time. However, I think of that every time I see that Ukraine has not been attacked by Russia. And what is your current thinking in the comments? Will Russia do a major attack? Now we all think they're going to keep the pressure on…
← Previous segment →raine I have this to add. You know how important it is that the frame, or the way you look at a problem, will really constrain your options. In other words, if you look at a problem as we often do for these international things, as they only respond to power. Or the other side, whoever the other side is, in this case let's say it's Russia, they only respond to strength. Now on one level that's true enough. Would you agree with me? Would you agree with me that on the surface level that's pretty true? That other countries really do only respond to strength because if anybody sees an opportunity they take it. Am I wrong? There's no exception to that. Any country that sees a national opportunity, if it has a low cost, they're going to take it. Your countries are organized to optimize what's good for the country. So of course it's true that power is the primary variable that keeps things stable or keeps things unstable. So there's no question about the basic truth of that.
However, however, when you reframe things, here's a little secret for you. The reframe doesn't need to be true. It only needs to work. Right? So what might be true is that strength is the only thing that matters. That might be just completely 100 percent true. And if you were a physicist or a scientist and somehow you could measure who has the power and, importantly, who knows they have the power and who knows they don't, you'd probably be able to predict what will happen almost every time.
But if you were to reframe the problem this way, which might be less true but would it be more effective? And this way is: what do you want? Just what do you want? Here's a scenario. I imagine now I'm not hallucinating that this would really work. I'm just taking you through a thinking process. If I could spend an hour with Putin, and I don't know, let's say amazingly he learned to speak English in the last week so we could just have a conversation in the same language, no interpreter. It's just the two of us in the room. And if I could say to him, okay look, just tell me what you need. Like what do you need? What's in it for you really? Is it the pipelines? You know, and everything's going to be a little bit yes. It's somewhat about national defense. It might be about pride. It might be about momentum. It might be about consolidating leadership over his country. It might be righting past injustices. It might be about returning Russia to its former glory. Maybe. But over here we're just guessing, aren't we? Don't you feel like we're just guessing? Because everything depends on just what's happening literally in one person's skull area. That's all. Just one person. And what's happening in this little piece of brain, like the actual chemical reaction that's happening there. That will determine the life and deaths of I don't know, a million people. That little bit of chemical reaction in one person's brain. And it all depends on that.
So suppose you put me in the room with Putin. Now keep in mind Putin is a high-level player. We assume he's very persuasive to say the least. But so am I, you know, in my own different way. And if I asked him and I spent enough time with him, don't you think I could find out what the real problem is? He might not say it directly but it all would come out. You know, maybe not in the first five minutes, but if you could just hang with him for like an hour and just talk about all the things, he would reveal even unintentionally. Maybe by the one he talks about the most. Maybe by the one he shows the most animation when he's talking about it. You can see that that's the one. You look in his eyes, you see that's the one that matters. The other ones are all true but maybe one matters more, right? Just to the one person and the one brain and the one skull in the world.
Now do you think that you could not figure out a way to give him what he wants, whatever that is, the main thing he wants, without giving up something that you don't want to give up? I don't know. Maybe there is no way. Maybe it is just power. But as long as we think that the frame is just power you can't even ask the right question. Because maybe, just maybe, just pick one. What if the only thing he cared about was selling energy? What if that's the only thing? And otherwise he's not actually that worried about NATO attacking Russia. Because if you talk to Putin, would he really say I'm afraid of NATO attacking? Would he? I don't know. Maybe he's not. I mean NATO is a defensive force by nature, but of course everything defensive looks a little bit offensive.
So is it about his legacy? Suppose you found out that what Putin wanted more than anything is a legacy. Could you give him a legacy without giving up too much of what you want to give up? Maybe. I don't know. Maybe not. Of course. But if we're not asking exactly what he cares about and we can't figure it out, how in the world do you get a good outcome by luck? Or you just let the power go where the power goes and it doesn't matter who wanted what or why. It's just the water is going to find its own level and we're just waiting to find out what happens. Maybe that. But I would at least be open to the question of what the hell does he want.
And on top of that I had a wild idea that kind of connects to my earlier statements about maybe publicly interviewing people. Which is, can you imagine a better interview than me interviewing Putin? And is it even legal? Would that even be legal? And what would happen to me if he said yes? Like if I actually put it out there and he said yes. Because he might. I mean he is actually quite open to media. And by now he knows that podcasters have some little weight in the ecosystem. So what if he said yes? Would that even be legal? Because I would worry that I would break some kind of treason law if I accidentally gave him a platform where he looked good. That'd be a big problem, wouldn't it? So wouldn't I have to make him look bad to be an okay American? Could I continue being an American if I made Putin look good accidentally? It may be a pretty big risk, wouldn't it?
But if I came at it with the intention of not making him look good, first of all why would he do it? And second of all why would I do it? Why would I do it? I wouldn't have any interest in that, right? Other people can make him look bad. But I would actually legitimately want to know what the hell he's thinking. And I think I can get it out of him. I know you don't, but I actually think I can get it out of him because I think I can get it out of anyone. Of course it depends on this one thing which is speculation. That if you knew what he
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really wanted it wouldn't shock you or surprise you that much. That we just need to know what it is. And we don't know which of his several fairly good reasons for doing what he's doing, we don't know which one is the activating one. But if we did I'll bet we could figure out something pretty quickly. And he's also a practical person, right? The one we think would you say that's a fair characteri…
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