Episode 2777 CWSA 03/13/25
Tariffs, Tesla, Trump, terrorists, and lots more fun ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
Good morning everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and you've never had a better time. But if you'd like
View segment →to take this experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny human brains, all you need for that is a coffee mug or a glass or a tankard, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me n…
View segment →fter Rosie O'Donnell announced that she's moving to Ireland, the prime minister of Ireland was in the White House. And the president's talking to the prime minister, and Trump says, quote, Ireland is known for very happy, fun-loving people. Why in the world would you let Rosie O'Donnell move to Irel…
View segment →person. Do you know any regular person who complains about oligarchs? Have you ever heard that? I've never heard that once. I've never heard like just an ordinary voter say something like, you know, there are a few things I like about the world but man it's a scary time because of the oligarchs. I…
View segment →ould the Democrats back another older white guy? Do you think an older white guy can get elected now as president? You know it was impressive that he ever became mayor of Chicago but president? I don't know. I'm not sure if the Democrat coalition would allow that. You know they had some special feel…
View segment →retary, Trump's thinking about making everybody who earns under $150,000 a year pay no federal income tax. Now that's a stretch goal. I don't think that one's going to happen right away. But it would include, I guess it assumes that we'd be making more money from other countries as in tariffs etc. A…
View segment →the scientists would say hey I think more people should have access to this so we'll put together a little publication, nonprofit, and we'll just make sure everybody sees it. So that's the way it used to be apparently. Today the vast majority of scientific studies are in for-profit publications. For…
View segment →at you agree with cloture so that they can all go on vacation or whatever it is that they need to do. And I don't know if that's going to work. But once again it looks like the Democrats are in that performative mode where they're just going to pretend it's the end of the world and you know they're…
View segment →defense, which is sort of where we're at, then suddenly you've got to do a DOGE or you've got to do something drastic. So I don't know if the schools would ever reach that point because next year is going to sort of look like this year and the one after maybe it's a little worse but not that much w…
View segment →t amazing the level of incompetence from the Biden. The whole Biden situation is just incredible. Well according to Bloomberg the Trump administration is going to follow up on something that the Biden administration started, which means that it's a bipartisan thing, to go after Microsoft for antitr…
View segment →ladies and gentlemen is all I have today. I guess we'll watch the tariffs. Tariffs will be on. Tariffs will be off. But I'm quite convinced that what Trump is doing with tariffs is looking better and better. And I feel like I also understand it now. And by understanding it, I said this yesterday, I…
View segment →n and made everybody pay attention. So if you want to score it on persuasion, phase one, get their attention, 100 percent. A plus. A plus. Now that doesn't mean everything's going to work out but if you were just going to score phase one, 100 percent success. Everybody's paying attention. Everybody…
View segment →Good morning everybody, and welcome to the highlight of human civilization. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and you've never had a better time. But if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that nobody can even understand with their tiny shiny human brains, all you need for that is a coffee mug or a glass or a tankard, a chalice, a stein, a canteen, a jug, a flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens right now.
Go. So good. So good.
Well, there's nothing that makes me happier than watching President Trump mock Rosie O'Donnell. So yesterday, by coincidence, after Rosie O'Donnell announced that she's moving to Ireland, the prime minister of Ireland was in the White House. And the president's talking to the prime minister, and Trump says, quote, Ireland is known for very happy, fun-loving people. Why in the world would you let Rosie O'Donnell move to Ireland? Why would you let her move? She's going to ruin the whole country.
Oh well, I've got one data point that's not scientific, but according to someone I was talking to, I guess yesterday he was talking to a sales rep for Tesla, and the sales rep said it's one of the busiest days they've ever had for sales. So after Trump bought his Tesla, a lot of people apparently followed suit. So Tesla had one of his best days ever. I have a feeling that's going to continue for a little while, so we'll see.
You know, one of the biggest changes for Tesla is it did seem like it was a little bit of a climate change lever kind of a car. So I think Republicans were a little bit, you know, I'll take my gas-powered truck, thank you. I don't need your electric cars. But now that it's so clearly a political thing, a whole bunch of Trump lovers are saying, oh yeah, it's a great car. Are you kidding me? Everybody wants one.
So if you add the Democrats who just like a good car to the Republicans who might buy one partly for political reasons, it could actually end up being good for Tesla net. Maybe. We'll see. Could go either way.
Well, Mike Johnson, House Speaker Mike Johnson, he says that Congress is going to investigate, quote, the domestic terrorism against the Tesla dealerships and charging stations, because there's been vandalism, destruction, and set fires and all that stuff. And yeah, domestic terrorism, that's exactly right.
At what point does the domestic terrorism though become a RICO? Does there have to be, like, do you have to steal something to make it RICO? But if you have a large, organized, well-funded group whose job it is to destroy these Tesla places, even if they don't have directions to say set it on fire or vandalize it, they know what's happening. So if the organizers know that their actions will cause vandalism at various places, at what point does it become RICO? If we can, we have visibility to the entire funding apparatus and everything else anyway.
So Elon Musk is trying again to get the courts to agree to his $56 billion Tesla pay package that was disapproved by a lower court. And the thing that occurred to me today is if he gets a $56 billion payday, do you know how much taxes that means? So you know, I don't know his whole tax situation, but it could be 37 percent of that goes to federal taxes. It would be one of the greatest gains for the government in terms of paying down the debt. Almost nothing would be more immediately impactful than just paying Elon Musk the amount that he's owed, and he's going to pay billions of dollars in taxes, I think.
Speaking of Elon, I guess yesterday they tried to launch the rocket to go get the astronauts that are stranded on the International Space Station, but they had a little technical problem. It looks like they might try again on Friday morning. And I'm wondering, will Democrats come out in favor of leaving them stranded? Now that sounds like a joke, right? Oh, the Democrats disagree with everything no matter how logical it is. So maybe they'll be opposed to Elon Musk saving the lives and rescuing the astronauts. But Biden actually was opposed. That's a real thing. And one imagines that Biden wasn't the only one. He just didn't want Elon Musk to get a win, so he left the astronauts up there.
Do you think those astronauts are Democrats or Republicans when they come back? I've got a feeling that they left the Earth as Democrats but they're coming back as hardcore Republicans. Let me tell you my rule. If I ever get stranded in an International Space Station and the party that I belong to decides they don't want to come get me, and the other party says I'll do it and they send up a rocket and they save me, I'm switching parties right away. It's like, okay, okay, you got my vote. Got my vote.
Anyway, I'd like to give you a tariff update. You know, a lot of stuff's happening in tariffs, and the tariff update goes like this. There's some countries have some tariffs against us, so Trump put some tariffs on them, but then they put some tariffs on us. Then they negotiated some of it. Some of the tariffs went away, but then we tariffed them. Then they tariffed us. Then we went up 200 percent. Then they went up 50 percent. And then there was a tariff and then there was not a tariff and then there was a tariff. It's almost a waste of time to give you any update on tariffs because it's changing so quickly and, you know, sort of a negotiation.
So I guess we're not going to be able to cheaply get alcohol from Europe. How much does that affect you? If I said to you, damn it, no more French wine and champagne, you're going to have to drink that California stuff, do you think you could live with that? I don't know if you're aware of this, but California makes really good wine. I'm not in favor of alcohol, by the way, but you know, it's a free country.
So I'm kind of wondering at what point do the tariffs start costing me money in any category that I care about? Like how long does it take before that works its way through the economy? I don't know. It seems like they keep tariffing things that don't immediately affect me, because even if they do things that affect the price of cars, if I were to buy a car this month, it's already built. So I'd have to wait several months before the cost of a car went up. I don't know. So we'll see.
But according to The Hill, the CEO of Goldman Sachs said this about tariffs. This is David Solomon. He said that the business community understands what Trump is trying to do with the levies on various goods, meaning tariffs. He says that Trump is more engaged with the business community than his White House predecessor, Biden. Now that's a kind of a big deal to get the head of Goldman Sachs to not say anything negative about tariffs. That's a big deal, because it would be so easy to say, well, you know, it's causing some chaos or, you know, there's uncertainty in the markets. It'd be so easy to come up with something negative to say. But when Goldman Sachs decides to say, yeah, the business community understands why he's doing it, that's a really big statement. So I think this is telling us something.
Meanwhile, inflation was down, as you know, and you probably noticed if you're on X that once again the Democrats were doing the identical messages. Have you seen that? So they're doing identical messages about, well actually identical. They were copy-paste. I think there were 50 different Democrats who had the same message. I don't even know what it was. It was boring. But then somebody said, oh yeah, well Republicans do that too, and it showed a whole bunch of messages from people who noted that egg prices were down, gas prices were down, and inflation and mortgage rates were down. And so the Democrat who found all those was saying, yeah, see, you guys do the same thing. Except none of them were cut and paste. Every one of them was written individually, and it was a headline that day. All they were doing is talking about the good news that was in the headlines, which is what we all do. If there's good economic news and it favors your team, of course you're going to tweet about it or post about it.
But here's what I think about the inflation looking good, and I guess jobs are kind of pretty close to in line to what we expected. Jobless claims. It basically gives Trump a month of breathing room, because until and if things start turning the other way, people are going to say, oh well, it looks like that tariff stuff didn't really change anything. At least it didn't make anything more expensive. So the best news is not just that the interest rates are down and eggs and gas are less expensive. The good news is it gives Trump another 30 days of operating space. And if he gets two in a row, I wouldn't predict it but it's possible, if he gets two months in a row where things look down in terms of prices, he's going to have a lot of wiggle room.
You know, after two months of threatening every kind of tariff in the world, if prices go down, and they could because a lot of it is based on expectations for the future economy, so if the economy looks like it's a little soft, prices can go down. I don't know if that's directly what's affecting it. I suspect that with gas and with eggs it has more to do with just something specific to those domains.
So I was watching Bernie Sanders do some event. He's going around talking to big groups, gave an interview. And this is what Bernie Sanders says about the Trump administration. He says it's the scariest time in his life. And I thought, really? This is the scariest time in your life? Why? And he said blah blah blah oligarchs. So the Democrats are trying to find this way to bond with their base, you know, really talk like the regular person. Do you know any regular person who complains about oligarchs? Have you ever heard that? I've never heard that once. I've never heard like just an ordinary voter say something like, you know, there are a few things I like about the world but man it's a scary time because of the oligarchs.
I would go so far as to say 70 percent of the entire Democrat base thinks that oligarch is one of the chemicals that RFK Jr. is trying to remove from food. It's the weakest, dumbest, completely disconnected from any kind of reality thing. It's the scariest time in his life, blah blah blah oligarchs. Bernie's lost it. He's completely lost it.
Have you seen the compilation clips on X or other places where it shows the prominent Democrats literally saying we've got to get rid of the waste, fraud, and abuse in our big social programs? And they're very careful to say, no, no, we're not talking about cutting benefits. We're only talking about getting rid of the waste, fraud, and you know, corruption and abuse. And it's literally exactly what DOGE is saying, exactly what Trump is saying. And it couldn't be more obvious that the Democrats are a performative group.
And have you noticed that people starting to use those words, that they're kind of theater kids and they're performing? Because they showed the same amount of enthusiasm for cutting waste, fraud, and abuse as they do now for criticizing Musk for cutting the waste, fraud, and abuse. Now they have to throw in that, oh, you should use a scalpel and not a chainsaw. Like that's useful. So they can pretend they have some reason but not really.
I don't think the Democrats have any core beliefs at this point. I think they just do what they think they can perform best. Yeah, I think I can sell this trans everything. Let's try to sell that. And then they'll act really hurt and worried and concerned, and none of it's real. It's just completely not real. It's all performative. And that's what happens when the 50 Democrats all do the same message on X. It's performative. They're not even pretending it's their own opinions. It's literally just the script that they've been handed and they just print the script.
So there is such a big difference now between the parties, and it's not just on policy as far as I can tell. And I would love to know if somebody has a counterexample of this. There might be. But I swear it seems like Republicans just do what Republicans always would do. They want to cut your taxes. They want to get rid of the regulations. They want smaller government. They want to get rid of the Department of Education. They want to move things to the states and the federal government. And those things seem like the things they've always wanted, and they always made sense from their perspective, and they're still talking about it. To me that seems completely genuine. Now you could argue it's a good policy or a bad policy, but you can't argue that they really believe those things and they're trying to pursue them.
Whereas the Democrats, it's all like theater kids killing a president. It's John Wilkes Booth times 100, because if you think about it, a lot of the Democrat work was just trying to take Trump out. It's the same as John Wilkes Booth. It's a theater guy. He was literally an actor. So it's literally just theater people going after a president. It's the damnedest thing to imagine that these parties are somehow equivalent and that it's, oh, it's just a difference of which policies you like. Nothing like that is happening. There is one side that is purely acting, and the moment they need to act the other way they will turn on a dime. Republicans don't do that at all. Republicans are pretty dug in on what it means to be a Republican anyway.
So DOGE has cancelled a National Institutes of Health grant that was trying to prevent pregnancy in transgender boys. Let me say that again. DOGE cancelled a grant that was meant to prevent pregnancy in transgender boys. Now you know how they always say you got to cut with a scalpel not a chainsaw. There's going to be now a wave of pregnant boys that could have been prevented if they just used the scalpel instead of a chainsaw. Yes, I'm being sarcastic.
I also wonder, have you noticed the lack of complaining that even though tons of things are being cut, the complaining is just the professional actors? The people who literally are Democrat elected officials who are just acting, or the people on the news who are just acting. But I don't see any real people who are going to protest because boys are going to have more babies, trans boys. So I feel like there's a whole lot of giving up on the Democrat side, as in, yeah, you know, we don't really want to fight about that. Yeah, you can have that one. Yeah, okay, you can get rid of the fraud, waste, and abuse. Sure.
Anyway, it also seems to me that all the Democrat organizations and all the grants, they all seem criminal to me. Just everything seems criminal. We'll talk about ActBlue, and we've talked about USAID, we've talked about the tens of thousands of NGOs. They all seem criminal. And it's so consistent. And it makes me wonder, are there also equivalents like that on the Republican side of the world? And maybe I just don't hear about it. Is everything corrupt once it reaches a certain scale, or is just everything that Democrats do corrupt? And I'm trying not to say it like I'm just taking sides. I'm just observing. It seems to me that every single time anybody digs into anything Democrats are doing, it looks corrupt. Corrupt as hell. So maybe it's 100 percent.
So Steve Bannon went on Governor Newsom's podcast. And here's something that Newsom said. He said the grievance narrative that comes from Trump, this notion that he's a victim. And Steve Bannon chimes in with, they did try to put him in prison for 300 years, right? See, this is the downside of Gavin Newsom having a podcast, because that is the right answer. Why is Trump always acting like he's a victim? You tried to put him in jail for nothing for 300 years. You may have thrown the election in 2020, that's Steve Bannon says. And I love the fact that Steve Bannon can just go on a major podcast with a major Democrat and just say we believe the 2020 election was rigged.
Now I don't have proof of that, but what are the odds that every single thing that we've looked into is rigged and corrupt except the election? Everything else, just everything else but not the election. I know it's kind of hard to believe that it would be the one thing that's not corrupt anyway.
Former Chicago mayor, according to the Gateway Pundit, Rahm Emanuel is maybe allegedly angling to be a presidential candidate. Here's my take on that. Uh oh. Now I've been telling you that all the Democrats need is a charismatic good candidate. If they just had a good candidate then suddenly they would be competitive like right on the block. And the fact that they don't have, seemingly they don't have any skills whatsoever. But Rahm Emanuel, he's got the whole package. He's got experience. He's got connections. You know, he's deeply connected to the Obama world so he could probably raise money like crazy. And he's also funny. And that's a problem if you're a Republican. That's a problem. He's funny. He's common sense and he's smart as hell. So I wouldn't want to run against him honestly. Yeah, he's got the whole package.
Now I never really thought about him as a potential presidential candidate, but as soon as I saw that name I said uh oh. Uh oh. That's an actual serious candidate. Now if you compare him to let's say Gavin Newsom, Gavin Newsom also has some political skill but he also has tons of scandal because he presided over a city that went to hell, San Francisco, and then a state that went to hell. So I don't think Rahm Emanuel has quite those problems. So I'd worry about him.
The big question would be could the Democrats back another older white guy? Do you think an older white guy can get elected now as president? You know it was impressive that he ever became mayor of Chicago but president? I don't know. I'm not sure if the Democrat coalition would allow that. You know they had some special feeling for Biden that didn't always make sense to me. So I don't think Rahm Emanuel would have that Biden sort of affection, but that'd be a problem because you know they're all about the diversity and if they run another white guy it's going to be sort of a glaring non-diversity situation anyway.
The other problem with Rahm Emanuel, and I'm not sure about this, give me a fact check on this, but when I've seen him in public and he's criticizing Republicans, I don't think he makes stuff up, which would make him unique among Democrats. Democrats generally just lie. So they say oh DOGE is going to cut your social services but the truth is the only cuts they're looking for are the waste, fraud, and abuse which wouldn't cut anybody's services. In fact might protect them because there would be more money to actually pay people. So if he doesn't lie, could he win? Because mostly what Democrats have is those kind of lies. Oh Trump is a dictator. I know. Would Rahm Emanuel say that? It's so stupid. Trump's going to cut your Social Security. He's not. Well he wouldn't be running against Trump but this whoever he's running against, would he say that that person is going to be cutting all your social services when he knows that it's not going to happen? I don't know. So he'd be an interesting one but I'd worry about him a little bit.
Meanwhile, so here's a good example. In Axios there's a headline that says DOGE is taking its wrecking ball to the Social Security Administration, the agency responsible for overseeing retirement and disability benefits for 73 million Americans. Now if you saw that headline it would look like they're cutting benefits to people who get Social Security, right? That's not the story. The story is that they're cutting the staff and they have very old computer systems and so there are some issues about whether it can just function with fewer people. I imagine it can. I'm not too worried about it. But that's the sort of lie. It wasn't a lie technically because the article describes what they're talking about. But that's the sort of thing that the Democrats have to run on. They have to just make stuff up because they don't have real stuff. Because otherwise they're running against common sense. So they have to assign stupid opinions to Republicans just so they have something to complain about. Oh I think he wants to kill all the babies. What? Nobody said anything like that. Oh yeah I'm pretty sure he's indicated he wants to kill all the babies. No. All right.
There's a story about the former CEO of Barclays, the bank, that apparently he had sex with Epstein's assistant. We don't know how old that was. But the funny part about it was, so he's admitted in court, I don't know what the court case was about, but he admitted that he was involved in the Jeffrey Epstein world there. And they're looking to ban him from the industry, blah blah blah. But apparently they discovered a thousand emails, like really friendly emails to Jeffrey Epstein. And he says he doesn't remember them. He sent a thousand emails. I don't remember doing that. Really? Really? I sent some emails? Huh. I don't have any memory of that. There were a thousand of them. Yeah. So he doesn't remember just daily.
Now I'd be lying if I didn't tell you this. Barclays bank went after me once in the past and because it's a court situation I can't tell you the details but oh my god do I hate that bank. Let's just say that my point of view is quite supportable and Barclays can't tell you what that was about but I do not like that bank. So I don't want to be too happy because their ex-CEO, he's not the current CEO, got in trouble with Epstein. But on the other hand it was hard not to enjoy it.
Meanwhile, you know the law firm Perkins Coie, am I saying that right? Coie. I used to think it was Coy but Perkins Coie. So they're the ones who were behind Hillary Clinton's Russia collusion hoax and some other things that Republicans don't like. And so the Trump administration yanked their security clearances. But there is some kind of challenge. They found a judge, of course. You know one of the top law firms in Washington, of course they found a judge who was willing to try to block it, to block the actions that the Trump administration's taking against them. But I saw one article that says that Perkins Coie is not challenging the removal of their security clearances but then I saw another article that says they are. So I don't know. It could be that they might want to say well it can't be every single person who works here. Maybe it should only apply to the people who worked on that project. But other people say it looks like we've got Mr.
Fart is back in the house. So if we could find a way to block him again, why some people decide that that's the thing they're going to do. Unbelievable. It's a problem in the comments.
All right. So but one lawyer at Perkins Coie said that all of the trouble that the Trump administration is giving their law firm, especially the security clearance part I think, represents it's like a tsunami waiting to hit the firm. So they do think it could just ruin their business entirely. But as Julie Kelly points out, Beryl Howell I guess this is the judge who oversaw the special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into the phony Trump Russia collusion and now she's the same person who's presiding over the Perkins Coie lawsuit against the president. Now doesn't that seem like some kind of weird coincidence or you know some kind of conflict of interest? So she was on the Robert Mueller case and now she's on this Perkins Coie thing. And the Perkins Coie people were involved with the Russia collusion hoax. So that's a sort of an only-in-DC thing.
Julie mentions, well in other news the EPA is getting rid of a whole bunch of rules and one of them is the endangerment finding. So this is a finding. Alex Epstein is talking about this on X. It's a finding that allowed Obama and Biden to ban gas cars and shut down power plants and slow U.S. oil growth and lock up our limitless natural gas, says Alex. And they're doing a lot more but this one seems like a big one.
So how much do you think this is going to make a difference to our economy if the EPA is sort of reduced in its impact? Well we should all be worried that things go too far and you know something will get polluted. But as Lee Zeldin points out out of the EPA, they're very concerned to make sure that they're not making the air or the water dirtier. But they want to get rid of just the BS part of the regulations. Should make a huge difference.
At the same time according to The Verge the FCC chairman Brendan Carr is asking the public for suggestions about how the FCC should get rid of regulations. And I love that. I love getting the public involved because the public has a much better idea what stopped them from doing the thing they wanted to do. So you're going to find small companies and big companies saying oh I've got an idea. We tried to build this thing and we couldn't do it because of the I don't know one thing or another. So if you could just get rid of that rule that'd be good.
So I love this. I love the fact that he's involving the public because the public does know what things are the biggest problems. And it's true, transparent. So if the FCC and the EPA make massive changes to deregulate, the business community is just going to love that. So I would say that things are looking really good for the long run of our economy. Better than I've ever seen it actually. Let me double down on that. The current things that are being done under the Trump administration are in my opinion the most positive things I've ever seen happen in one compressed period of time. I've never seen anything this amazingly good. From reducing regulations to even the tariff stuff, I think it's going to work out. In the short run, lots of uncertainty. Stock markets say we don't like uncertainty so they plunge. That's all built in.
And if you can get one thing right about the economy it's to make sure that you got the long run right even if it has a little bit of pain in the short run. That's the hardest thing to do is something you'd have to do if you had a mandate and it was your second term and you were determined to get it right. So this situation is so unusual. If you add DOGE, you know the cost cutting and really just finding out what kind of total corruption was in our system, I'm almost as interested in the corruption and the money laundering and the shadow government that was caused by all the NGOs as I am about the cost cutting. These are amazingly, amazingly positive trends.
Now will the courts block everybody from doing everything they want? It looks like it. The courts are trying to block just everything. You know anything that Elon Musk wants to do, anything that Trump wants to do, somebody's going to find a friendly judge who will try to block it. But I've never seen anything this positive in my entire life. Nothing with this much impact that could make a big difference in the long run.
Trump's proposing an idea to, according to Howard Lutnick, U.S. Commerce Secretary, Trump's thinking about making everybody who earns under $150,000 a year pay no federal income tax. Now that's a stretch goal. I don't think that one's going to happen right away. But it would include, I guess it assumes that we'd be making more money from other countries as in tariffs etc. And here's the idea of forcing countries to pay a membership fee to sell in America. Now I don't think that that's going to happen but the fact that Trump would say you have to have a membership fee to even sell stuff in America, that's kind of awesome. It seems like such a big idea that my first impression is oh you're never going to get away with that. Then my second impression is but why not? If America is the best economy to sell into, you know we've got the biggest consumer base so people actually spend money, then maybe there should be a cover charge. I think you should have a two drink minimum and a cover charge for getting into the American markets. Two drink minimum. Yep. So we'll see if he can get away with that. I don't even know if he's getting away with no tax on tips but this would be a pretty big deal.
Let's talk about Russia and Ukraine. So as you know Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire and Russia said that's crazy talk because the ceasefire just allows Ukraine to regroup. And since Russia thinks it's winning, they just recaptured a town in Kursk so they think that they're winning. They say no we'll talk about a big peace deal you know where everything is included but no ceasefire.
Now if you remember my prediction it was that he's going to have to agree to the ceasefire even though he doesn't want to, to keep his relationship with Trump productive. Because if Trump puts his reputation on the ceasefire, which he's doing, and then Putin is the reason it doesn't happen, Trump's not going to be happy. And when Trump's not happy you know it's not going to be a silent, well in my head I'm unhappy. No. Trump's already talking about massive sanctions on Russia. I don't know what's left to sanction but seems like they would have sanctioned everything sanctionable by now. But Trump is already talking about essentially putting the screws on Russia.
So I'm going to double down on my non-standard prediction. If I were making a standard prediction I would say huh this ceasefire looks like a bad idea for Putin. Putin's very smart. He knows it's a bad idea because Ukraine will just put together their forces and come at him harder. And so logic says that Putin would reject this, which he has. But I'm going to go with my feeling that the only chance Putin has of getting a good outcome is to work productively with Trump. And Trump's making a very small ask. It's a very small ask to take a month off of fighting. I think Putin might cave and I think he has to do it to maintain the relationship. And that's something that Trump brings to the table. He makes sure that you don't get anything until you're dealing with him respectfully and seriously. That's really powerful.
So if you had to bet on it you should bet against me because like I said it's a bad deal for Russia. Russia knows it. Putin's no idiot. But I think the keeping the relationship with Trump productive, I think that has a greater value than even whatever advantages Ukraine got by the ceasefire.
Now speaking of Ukraine, apparently their drone warfare is really making a difference. So something like 60 percent of all the destruction that Ukraine is doing on the military of Russia is with drones. And I guess they're using a lot of AI drones that are way better. So even when they get jammed they can just sort of look at the ground and say well I'm jammed but I know where I'm going because I'm just looking at the ground and I've got these landmarks and I know what to attack.
But what's not working apparently is swarms. You know how all of us non-experts said oh it's going to be swarms. Yeah there's going to be these giant swarms of drones. Turns out that these swarms don't work too well with current technology because the signals interfere. So there's just too many signals in too small a place. So weirdly swarms haven't worked yet. One assumes they'll figure that out eventually. But it's more like individual drones with AI and they're tough to stop.
All right. So let's talk about science journals. Here's something I didn't know. So you probably know I've talked about a bunch of times how science has a reproducibility problem where if somebody gets a peer-reviewed study into a science publication, later if somebody says let's see if we can reproduce these results, and usually they can't or at least half the time they can't. So that suggests that a lot of what we think is science is literally just probably half of it. Some would say more. But I didn't realize that there's a structural reason for it. And the structural reason, and I was just learning this today, did you know that it used to be that the scientific journals were basically a bunch of well-meaning scientists who would say well if you couldn't come to the conference here's a little newsletter basically that says what got presented at the conference.
Now that was probably a mostly honest system where people were doing honest science. Not right every time but at least they were honestly doing science. And the scientists would say hey I think more people should have access to this so we'll put together a little publication, nonprofit, and we'll just make sure everybody sees it. So that's the way it used to be apparently. Today the vast majority of scientific studies are in for-profit publications. For-profit publications. Do you see the problem already? The for-profit publications want to publish as much as possible and charge as much as possible. They can charge you up to like a million dollars a year if you're a big university just to have their papers. And once you make it for-profit, don't you think they're going to accept a lot of papers that wouldn't have been accepted otherwise? Don't you think? And I think that's exactly what's happening.
So as long as the industry is incentivized by the number of studies that get published you're going to get a lot more fake studies because they're going to sort of, even if they don't say so you can imagine that they would lower their standard because everybody's got their own objectives for their job. You know there's going to be some editor who can't publish the magazine without a lot of studies in it. So the more studies the more money. I think they're going to get a little looser than what they accept. So that seems to be an enormous problem in science right now. And I don't think that there's a solution to it. I don't believe anybody's recommended any kind of solution. But at this point if you were to draw this system up on paper you would know that this is going to lead to massive corruption. It's designed right into the system. You know as long as you follow the money you've got to assume they're going to accept more than they would have otherwise anyway.
So as you know the Congress can't make any decisions on budgets so they do these continuing resolution things that just say ah we'll keep the budget basically the way it was because we can't decide but we'll decide later. And so that's what the Republicans are trying to do. But Democrats point out, you know Adam Schiff pointed this out, this is not a normal continuing resolution because it's not just continue on. The Republicans made some fairly Republican changes. So spending more on national defense for example. But the total amount is essentially what it was. So the continuing resolution part where it's just we keep the same budget amount, that's at least they kept that. But within the details they did move stuff around in a Republican way.
So now it looks like there might be some question whether the Democrats will support it in the Senate. And Schumer saying it doesn't have the votes. But then John Thune, the Senate leader, he's going to do a cloture. He's going to go for a cloture vote. How many of you know what that is, cloture? I had to ask my AI what it was just to make sure. I thought I sort of knew but it means that they're going to go for a vote. They would say they're going to limit the debate and then they got to vote. And I guess you need 60 senators to say that you agree with cloture so that they can all go on vacation or whatever it is that they need to do. And I don't know if that's going to work. But once again it looks like the Democrats are in that performative mode where they're just going to pretend it's the end of the world and you know they're going to put on a lot of acts. So we'll watch that.
Kevin O'Leary, you know him as Mr. Wonderful, he was on CNN last night and he was talking about teachers unions being bad. And he said our reading and math scores are the worst in the G7 in terms of how many dollars we spend to advance our children. Why unions that keep mediocre teachers in place when we should be firing them? So I'm going to double down on that because of course I say the same thing. I think the biggest existential threat to the country except for debt, debt's number one, is the teachers unions. Because they're clearly creating a situation in which the test scores are down, learning is down, and America is falling behind its peers. I'm pretty sure that's all the teachers unions because if you had any kind of competition, competition almost certainly would have improved things.
So given that the teachers union, their two biggest objectives are to benefit teachers, that's what a union does, it benefits the teachers. But in this case it's a special case where they're also benefiting the Democratic Party. So they're the biggest donors and supporters of the Democratic Party. So if those are your two top priorities how in the world would you even expect that scores would be better? And they're all performative. You know that Randi Weingarten, she's the most performative actress you've ever seen and she gets all excited and she says things that generally might not get through your fact checker.
So now she's all upset about the Department of Education being gutted even though it shouldn't make any difference to the states because the things that matter they would just hand the money to the states. The things that didn't make any difference to anybody they'll cut. Probably won't make any difference at all. So it just gets rid of some bureaucracy at the federal level. But yeah I agree with Kevin O'Leary. He's right on. And the fact that we don't talk about this every day I think it's because it's this slow-moving disaster sort of like the debt. You know you could push that debt thing down the road for years which we did. But at some point when the amount of interest on the debt is going to be bigger than our spending for national defense, which is sort of where we're at, then suddenly you've got to do a DOGE or you've got to do something drastic.
So I don't know if the schools would ever reach that point because next year is going to sort of look like this year and the one after maybe it's a little worse but not that much worse. And I don't know that it ever reaches that critical point where you just say all right stop everything we've got to tear this whole system apart one way or another. I don't know how. But I think the main thing is school choice. I would love to think that there's something better than that but probably at the moment school choice is the thing. So we'll see if that makes a difference.
Well I told you about ActBlue. So ActBlue is the Democrat organization that allegedly is collecting small donations from all over the country and using it to help fund Democrats. But it appears that at least it's partially a money laundering operation. So James O'Keefe found a specific situation where there was one house that donated $116,000 to Democrat Jasmine Crockett except they were retired and had no income. So James sent his person to knock on the door and I guess they said we didn't give any money to Jasmine Crockett. Don't know what you're talking about.
And so I do think we have evidence that I find convincing that ActBlue is not acting as blue as they should be. That didn't make any sense. But again if ActBlue is corrupt and all the NGOs were corrupt and USAID was corrupt and the Biden crime family was corrupt and everything in Congress seems corrupt, thank goodness that 2020 election was pristine, huh? To imagine that it's not all corrupt is just such a stretch at this point anyway.
Remember the story about that book that said that Gavin Newsom funded his own bust to be put in some government building inside the San Francisco City Hall? And remember I told you huh that story is a little bit too on the nose. And the too-on-the-nose part is that you imagine that Newsom is sort of narcissistic and would care about that enough that he would fake that other people wanted the bust. Oh it's other people not me. So the story was a little too perfect. And then I told you that books about this sort of thing are kind of low credibility. If you've seen all the books about the Trump administration you know that most of those are just total. So why would it be different if somebody wrote a book about Democrats? Well I mean I don't know what percentage of the book was accurate what it wasn't. But I did warn you that there's going to be another side to that story.
And sure enough Newsom has basically denied that he had anything to do with funding it. There were some entities connected with Newsom that gave some money. He may or may not have known about it. He did pose for the bust so he knew the bust was being done. But I kind of believe him that he wasn't really directly involved in funding it. So just know there's always two stories. So that one I think maybe leans in his direction.
Recently we found out according to Just the News that during the time that Barack Obama was president and Biden was vice president that a lot of highly secure things were just emailed to Biden with his private email. So Biden, the guy who had these stacks of boxes of secure stuff in his garage, apparently was just using his regular email that was at alias. But they were just emailing him like important national secrets, highly sensitive things, just on email. Now you assume that that means our adversaries captured that. Is there much chance that the best hackers in other countries can't get into regular email? I don't know. It's just amazing the level of incompetence from the Biden. The whole Biden situation is just incredible.
Well according to Bloomberg the Trump administration is going to follow up on something that the Biden administration started, which means that it's a bipartisan thing, to go after Microsoft for antitrust. Now I don't know what that includes because Microsoft is such a big sprawling organization but there have always been allegations that they were involved in some kind of anti-competitive stuff. So I don't know what these specific allegations are but it's notable that the Biden administration started it and the Trump administration is going to continue it. So it does suggest that there's something there. We'll find out how much that matters.
According to the Washington Examiner there's a study on Wisconsin that shows that requiring voter ID does not suppress the vote ahead of ballot decisions. Now I don't know that they can really study that but they found out that when they enacted voter ID law in Wisconsin the turnout increased by 1.5 percent. But do you see what's wrong with that? It increased by 1.5 percent. The real question is how much would it have increased by itself. So it's not like voter ID increased it. And if the argument is that voter ID would suppress it then really what you need to know is well if it was 1.5 with voter ID what would it have been without voter ID?
Now since I'm completely in the camp that says voter ID is required and I don't think there's a single person who's a legal resident who wants to vote and can't figure out how to get an ID, I just don't think they exist. So I agree with the conclusion of the study although I don't think they studied it in a way that I find compelling. But I agree there's no way that voter ID is a bad thing.
According to Technical University of Munich some people figured out how to make AI learning a hundred times faster. You've probably heard how many times have I told you a story like that. But this one is instead of using their usual iterative method of training they have some kind of probabilistic scheme and they can get just as good responses by not just doing everything but rather probabilistically knowing what to do to train it. So that's the idiot explanation. Just know that there's something out there that already works. It's not speculative. It already works and it increases the efficiency by 100 times.
Now this is just one of many stories that had that same quality. It's like oh there's a new chip. There's a new DeepSeek. DeepSeek is one of those that's a whole different way to train cheaper. So I've got a feeling that the cost of getting into the AI business is going to drop to the point where I don't even know if the big companies can keep any kind of advantage at some point. Especially if you have AIs that are being trained on other AIs. I feel like it's going to be hard for the biggest AI companies to keep a moat to keep other people from just knocking them off. So we'll see.
There's a story I wasn't going to get into about a specific police chief who happened to be the chief of police in Las Vegas at the same time Stephen Paddock did that mass shooting of the music festival. But then he left that job and he went to Maui where he became the police chief during the Lahaina fire. Now how could anybody be that unlucky? You know imagine being the police chief in Las Vegas. You're thinking ah Las Vegas seems like a pretty good place to be a police chief. And then you have the biggest mass shooting and of course he was blamed for not investigating it enough. And then he goes to Maui. He's thinking to himself nothing ever happens in Maui. I mean it's basically no crime. So and then there's a Lahaina fire and I guess he got some criticism for that. But now he's been named as a codefendant in a lawsuit that involves Sean Diddy Combs. How could one person get in that much trouble? How's it even possible that one person could go from the Las Vegas shooting to the Lahaina fire to getting in trouble with Diddy?
And by the way I don't have a criticism of this police chief. It could be just really bad luck. You know it could be that the Diddy thing is just an association of an association and doesn't mean anything. It could be that the Las Vegas and Lahaina thing everybody's criticizing everybody so maybe it wasn't that bad. But that's a heck of a lot of trouble for one person to be into. Well yeah I see it in the comments somebody saying he's corrupt but really to me that just looks like horrible luck. Whether or not he did a good job in those cases I can't judge but that looks like really bad luck anyway. We'll keep an innocent till proven guilty opinion on that.
All right that ladies and gentlemen is all I have today. I guess we'll watch the tariffs. Tariffs will be on. Tariffs will be off. But I'm quite convinced that what Trump is doing with tariffs is looking better and better. And I feel like I also understand it now. And by understanding it, I said this yesterday, I think what he's doing is making sure that other countries treat it like it's their top priority to figure out how to deal with us in terms of trade. And if that's the only thing the tariffs do is scare the bejesus out of other countries and they say all right all right let's talk about our whole tariff situation, that's a big win.
Because the way it looks now, this might be just the American spin on things, but the way it looks is that we have been screwed by other countries for a long time. And if we sat down and said all right look at all the things you're doing to us and look at the few things we're doing to you, this is totally imbalanced. I don't think that any country wanted to have that conversation because it feels like they all thought they were getting away with a little bit of something. And if Trump only just shines this giant light on the imbalance of the tariffs it seems to me there's a good chance that he'll be able to negotiate better deals than we have. And that would be amazing for our economy. Just amazing.
The other thing is you know I mentioned earlier that Lutnick talked about a sort of a fee just to join the club to sell to America. Maybe that's the faster way to do it instead of negotiating every single tariff. Maybe that's just too much work and there's lots of complexity there. You just say here's a deal. If you want to be in our market this is what you're going to pay per year. Maybe. So I like the fact he's putting all those ideas out there. It's all negotiable.
But if the one thing that Trump did was make sure that the other countries dropped their other priorities and said uh oh we can't really go a month with a 50 percent or a 200 percent tariff on a key industry so we're going to need to deal with this right away, that's all he needs. All he needs is I want your complete attention. What is it that I've taught you about persuasion? Do you remember the first rule of persuasion? It's the first rule. It's the big one. You got to get their attention. It's by far the most important one because if you don't get somebody's attention it doesn't matter if you're repeating and doing all the right things. They're just not paying attention.
So Trump took this situation where really nobody was paying attention and made everybody pay attention. So if you want to score it on persuasion, phase one, get their attention, 100 percent. A plus. A plus. Now that doesn't mean everything's going to work out but if you were just going to score phase one, 100 percent success. Everybody's paying attention. Everybody put it at their top priority. Everybody's responding. They're of course putting up a fight but boy are they paying attention. So that's an A plus. And I think that's why Goldman Sachs and other big business people are giving Trump some room to operate because I think they completely understand this. First you get their attention and then we'll see what happens.
So that's all I got today. I'll talk to the locals people privately. For the rest of you on YouTube and Rumble and X I'll see you tomorrow same time same place. Thanks for joining. All right.
it's time for a show let's get my comments working and then we'll go wild it'll be amazing good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization it's called coffee with scottt Adams and you've never had a better time but if you'd like to take this experience up to levels that nobody can even understand what their tiny shiny human brains all you need for that is a c Mar a glass of tanker chel and St a canteen jug a flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparallel pleasure the dope mean here the day thing makes everything better it's called the simultaneous Sip and it happens right now go so good so good well there's nothing that makes me happier than watching president Trump uh mock Rosie O'Donnell So Yesterday by coincidence after Rosie O'Donnell announced that she's moving to Ireland the prime minister of Ireland of Ireland was in the way house and the president's talking to the Prime Minister and Trump says quote Ireland is known for very happy funloving people why in the world would you let Rosie o' Donald move to Ireland why would you let her move she's going to ruin the whole country oh well I've got one data point that's not scientific but according to Matt vanin swall he was just talking to I guess yesterday he was talking to a sales rep for Tesla and the sales rep said it's one of the busiest days they've ever had for sales so after Trump bought his Tesla a lot of people apparently followed suit so Tesla had one of one of his best days ever I have a feeling that's going to continue for a little while so we'll see um you know one of the biggest the biggest changes for Tesla is it did seem like it was a little bit of a climate change lever kind of a car so I think Republicans were a little bit you know I'll take my gas powered truck thank you uh I don't need your electric cars but now that it's uh so clearly a political thing there a whole bunch of uh Trump lovers are saying oh yeah it's a great car are you kidding me everybody wants one so if you add the uh Democrats who just like a good car to the Republicans who might buy one partly for political reasons it could actually end up being good for Tesla net maybe we'll see could go either way well Mike Johnson House speaker Mike Johnson he says that Congress is going to investigate quote the domestic terrorist against the Tesla dealerships and charging stations because there's been vandalism of Destruction and set fires and all that stuff and uh yeah domestic terrorism that's exactly right at what point does the domestic terrorism though become a RICO does there have to be like do you have to steal something to make it REO but if you have a large organized well-funded group whose job it is to destroy these tessla places even if they don't have directions to say set it on fire or vandalize it they know what's happening so if the organizers know that their actions will cause vandalism at various places at what point does it become Rico if we can you we have visibility to the entire funding apparatus that everything else anyway so Elon Musk is trying again to get the courts to uh agree to his 56 billion Tesla pay package that was disapproved by a lower court and the thing that occurred to me today is if he gets a $ 56 billion payday do you know how much taxes that means so you know I don't know his whole tag situation but it could be 37% of that goes to federal taxes it it would be one of the greatest gains for for the government in in terms of paying down the debt almost nothing would be more you know immediately impactful than just paying Elon Musk the amount that he's he's owed and he's going to pay billions of dollars in taxes I think speaking of Elon um I guess yesterday they tried to launch the rocket to go get the astronauts that are stranded on the International Space Station but they had a little technical problem it looks like they might try again on Friday morning um and I'm wondering will Democrats Comm out in favor of leaving them stranded now that sounds like a joke right oh the Democrats disagree with everything no matter how logical it is so maybe they'll be opposed to Elon Musk say saving the lives and rescuing the astronauts but Biden actually was opposed that's a real thing and one imagines that Biden wasn't the only one he just didn't want Elon Musk to get a win so he left the astronauts up there do you think those astronauts are Democrats or Republicans when they come back I've got a feeling that they they left the Earth as Democrats but they're coming back as hardcore Republicans let me tell you my rule if I ever get stranded in an International Space Station and and the party that I belong to decides they don't want to come get me and the other party says I'll do it and they send up a rocket and they save me I'm switching parties right away it's like okay okay you got my vote got my vote any any way I'd like to give you a tariff update you know a lot of stuff's happening in tariffs and the Tariff update goes like this uh there's some countries have some tariffs against us so Trump put some tariffs on them but then they put some tariffs on us then they negotiated some of it some of the tariffs went away but then we tariffed them then they tariffed us then we went up 200% then they went up 50% and then there was a tariff and then there was not a tariff and then there was a tariff it's almost a waste of time to give you any update on tariffs because it's changing so quickly and you know sort of a negotiation so um I guess we're not going to be able to cheaply get alcohol from Europe how much does that affect you if I said to you damn it no more French wine and champagne you're going to have to drink that California stuff do you think you could live with that I don't know if you're aware of this but California makes really good wine I'm not in favor of alcohol by the way but you know it's a free country so I'm kind of wondering at what point do the tariffs start costing me money in any category that I care about like how long does it take before that you know Works its way through the economy I don't know it it seems like they keep tariffing things that don't immediately affect me because even if they do things that affect the price of cars if I were to buy a car this month it's already built so I'd have to wait several months before a the cost of a car went up I don't know so we'll see but according to the hill uh the CEO of Goldman Sachs said this about tariffs uh this is David Solomon he said that the business community community quote understands what Trump is trying to do with the levies on various Goods meaning tariffs he says that Trump is more engaged with the business Community than his White House predecessor Biden now that's a kind of a big deal to get the head of Goldman Sachs to not say anything negative about tariffs that's a big deal because it would be so easy to say well well you know it's causing some chaos or you know there's uncertainty in the markets it'd be so easy to come up with something negative to say but when Goldman Sachs decides to say yeah the business Community understands why he's doing it that's a really big statement so I think this is telling us something meanwhile inflation was down as you know and uh you probably noticed if you're on X that uh once again the Democrats were doing the identical messages have you seen that so they're doing identical messages about um well actually identical they were copy paste I think there were 50 different Democrats who had the same message I don't even know what it was it was boring but then somebody said oh yeah oh yeah well Republicans do that too and it showed a whole bunch of messages from people who noted that egg prices were down gas prices were down and inflation and mortgage rates were down and so the Democrat who found all those was saying yeah see you guys do the same thing except none of them were cut and paste every one of them was written individually and it was a headline that day all they were doing is talking about the good news that was in the headlines which is what we all do if there's good economic news and it favors your team of course you're going to Tweet about it or post about it but here's what I think about the uh inflation looking good and uh I guess jobs are kind of pretty close to in line to what we expected jobless claims it basically gives Trump a month of breathing room because until and if things start turning the other way people are going to say oh well it looks like that tariff stuff didn't really change anything at least it didn't make anything more expensive so the best news is not just that the interest rates are down and and eggs and gas are less expensive the good news is he gives Trump another 30 days of operating space and if he gets two in a row I wouldn't predict it but it's POS possible if he gets two months in a row where things look down in terms of prices he's going to have a lot of wiggle room you know after after two months of threatening every kind of tariff in the world if prices go down and they could because a lot of it is based on expectations for the you know the future economy so if the economy looks like it's a little soft prices can go down I don't know if that's directly what's affecting it I I suspect that with gas and with eggs has more to do with just something specific to those domains so I was watching Bernie Sanders do some event he's going around talking to Big groups gave an interview and uh this is what Bernie Sanders says about the Trump Administration he says it's the scariest time in his life and I thought really this is the scariest time in your life why and he said blah blah blah oligarchs so so the the Democrats are trying to find this way to you know bond with with their base you know really talk like the regular person do you know any regular person who complains about oligarchs have you ever heard that I've never heard that once I've never heard like just an ordinary voter say something like uh you know there are a few things I like about the world but man it's a scary time because of the oligarchs I would go so far as to say there 70% of the entire Democrat base thinks that oligarch is one of the chemicals that RFK Jr is trying to remove from food it's the weakest dumbest completely disconnected from any kind of reality thing it's the scariest time in his life blah blah blah oligarchs Bernie's lost it he's completely lost it have you seen the uh compilation Clips on X or other places where it shows the uh prominent Democrats literally saying we've got to got to get rid of the uh waste Fraud and Abuse in our big social programs and they're very careful to say no no we're not talking about cutting benefits we're only talking about getting rid of the waste fraud and you know corruption and abuse and it's literally exactly what doge is saying exactly what Trump is saying and it it couldn't be more obvious that the Democrats are a performative group and have you noticed that people starting to use those words that they're kind of theater kids and they're performing because the they they showed the same the same amount of enthusiasm for cutting waste Fraud and Abuse as they do now for criticizing musk for cutting the waste Fraud and Abuse now they have to throw in that oh you should use a scalpel and not a chainsaw like like that's useful um so they you know they can pretend they have some reason but not really I don't think the Democrats have any core beliefs at this point I think they just do what they think they can perform best yeah I think I can I think I can sell this you know trans everything let's let's try to sell that and then they'll act really hurt and worried and concerned and none of it's real it's just completely not real it's all performative and that that's what happens when the 50 Democrats all do the same message on X is performative they're not even pretending it's their own opinions it's literally just the script that they've been handed and they just print the script so there is such a big difference now between the parties and it's not just on policy as far as I can tell and i' would love to know if somebody has a counter example of this there might be but I swear it seems like Republicans just do what Republicans always would do they want to cut your taxes they want to get rid of the regulations they want smaller government they want to get rid of the Department of Education they want to move things to the states and the federal government and those things seem like the things they've always wanted and they always made sense from you know from their perspective and they're still talking about it to me that seems completely genuine now you could argue it's a good policy or a bad policy but you can't argue that they really believe those things and and they're trying to pursue them whereas the Democrats it it's all um it's all like theater kids killing a president it's it's John wils Booth times 100 CU if you think about it a lot of the Democrat work was just trying to take Trump out it's the same as John wils Booth it's a theater guy he was literally an actor so it's literally just theater people going after a president it's the damnest thing to to imagine that these parties are somehow equivalent and that it's oh it's just a difference of you know which policies you like nothing like that is happening there is one side that is purely acting and the moment they need to act the other way they will turn on a dime Republicans don't do that at all Republicans are pretty dug in on what it means to be a republican anyway um so Doge has a cancelled a a National Institute of Health grant that would uh was trying to prevent pregnancy and transgender boys let me say that again Doge canel a grant that was meant to prevent pregnancy in transgender boys now you know how they always say you got a cut with a scalpel not a chainsaw there's going to be now a wave of pregnant boys that could have been prevented if they just used the scalpel instead of a chainsaw yes I'm being sarcastic I also wonder have you notied the lack of complaining that even though tons of things are being caught uh tons of things are being cut the complaining is just the professional actors the people who literally are you know Democrat elected officials who are just acting or the people on the news who are just acting but I don't see any real people who are who are going to protest because boys are going to have more babies trans boys so I feel like there's a whole lot of giving up on the Democrat side as in yeah you know we don't really want to fight about that yeah you can have that one yeah okay you can get rid of the fraud waste and abuse sure anyway um it also seems to me that uh all the Dem R organizations and all the grants they all seem criminal to me just just everything seems criminal we'll talk about act blue and we've talked about usaid we've talked about you know the tens of thousands of NOS they all seem criminal and it's so consistent and it makes me wonder are there also equivalents like that on the Republican side of the world and maybe just don't hear about it is is everything corrupt you know once it reaches a certain scale or is just everything that Democrats do corrupt and I'm trying not to say it like a you know like I'm just taking sides I'm just observing it seems to me that every single time anybody digs into anything uh Democrats are doing it looks corrupt corrupt as hell so maybe it's 100% so uh Steve Bannon went on Governor Newsome's podcast and here's something that Newsome said he said the grievance narrative that comes from Trump uh this notion that he's a victim and Steve Bannon chimes in with they did try to put him in prison for 300 years right see the this is the downside of Gavin Newsome having a podcast because that is the right answer yeah why why is Trump always acting like he's a victim you tried to put him in jail for nothing for 300 years you you may have thrown the election in 2020 that's Steve Bannon says and I love the fact that Steve Bannon can just go on a major podcast with a with a major Democrat and just say we believe the 20120 election was rigged now I don't have proof of that but what are the odds that every single thing that we've looked into is rigged and corrupt except the election everything else just everything else but not the election I know it's kind of hard to believe that it would be the one thing that's not corrupt anyway uh former Chicago mayor according to the Gateway pundit um Rah Emanuel is maybe allegedly Ang to be a presidential candidate um here's my take on that uhoh now I've been telling you that all the Democrats need is a charismatic good candidate if they just had a good candidate then it would suddenly they would be competitive like right on the Block and the fact that they don't have seemingly they don't have any skills whatsoever um but R Manuel he's got the whole package he's got experience he's got connections you know he's deeply connected to the Obama world so he could probably raise money like crazy and he's also funny and that's a problem if you're a republican that's a problem he's funny he's common sense and he's smart as hell so I wouldn't want to run against him honestly yeah he's he he's got the whole package now I I never really thought about him as a potential presidential candidate but as soon as I saw that name I said uh oh uh oh that's that's an actual serious candidate now if you compare him to let's say Gavin Newsome Gavin Newsome also has some political skill but he also has tons of Scandal because he presided over a city that went to hell San Francisco and then a state that went to hell so you know uh I don't think Rah Emanuel has quite those problems so I'd worry about him the big question would be could the Democrats back another older white guy do you think an older white guy can get elected now as president you know it was impressive that he ever became mayor of Chicago but president I don't know I'm not sure if the Democrat Coalition would allow that you know they they had some special feeling for Biden um that didn't always make sense to me so I don't think R Emanuel would have that Biden you know sort of affection but that'd be a problem because you know they're all about the diversity and if they run another white guy it's going to be sort of a glaring glaring non- diversity situation anyway the other the other problem with Rah Emanuel and I'm not sure about this give me a fact check on this but when I've seen him in public and he's he's criticizing Republicans I don't think he makes stuff up which would make him unique among Democrats Democrats generally just lie so they say oh doge is going to cut your social services but the truth is the only Cuts they're looking for are the waste Fraud and Abuse which wouldn't cut anybody's services in fact might protect them because there would be more money to actually pay people so if he doesn't lie could he win because mostly what Democrats have is those kind of Lies oh Trump is a dictator I know would Rah Emanuel say that it's so stupid uh Trump's going to cut your Social Security he's not well he wouldn't be running against Trump but this whoever he's running against would he say that that person is going to be cutting all your Social Services when he knows when he knows that it's not going to happen I don't know so he'd be an interesting one but I'd worry about him a little bit uh meanwhile so here's a good example in uh axios there's a headline that says doge is taking its wrecking ball to the Social Security Administration the agency responsible for overseeing retirement and disability benefits for 73 million Americans now if you saw that headline it would look like they're cutting benefits to people who get Social Security right that's not the story the story is that they're cutting the staff and they have very old you know computer systems and so there are some issues about whether it can just function with fewer people I I imagine it can I don't I'm not too worried about it but that's the sort of lie it wasn't a lie technically because they the article describes what they're talking about but that's the sort of thing that the Democrats have to run on they have to just make stuff up because they don't have real stuff because otherwise they're running against common sense so they have to they have to uh assign stupid opinions to Republicans just so they have something to complain about oh I think he wants to kill all the babies what nobody said anything like that oh yeah I'm pretty sure he's indicated he wants to kill all the babies no all right um there's a story about the former CEO of Barclays the bank that uh apparently he had sex with Epstein's assistant we don't know how old that was but uh the funny part about it was uh so he's admitted in court I don't know what the court case was about but he admitted that he he uh was involved in the the Jeffrey Epstein World there and uh they're looking to ban him from the industry blah blah blah but apparently they discovered a thousand emails like really friendly emails to Jeffrey Epstein and he says he doesn't remember them he sent a thousand emails I don't remember doing that really really I sent some emails huh I I don't have any memory of that there were a thousand of them yeah so he doesn't remember just daily now I'd be lying if I didn't tell you this um Barkley's bank went after me once in the past and because it's a you know a court situation I can't tell you the details but oh my god do I hate that bank let's just say that U my point of view uh is quite supportable and barklay is can't tell you what that was about but I do not like that bank so I don't want to be too happy because they're ex CEO he's not the current CEO uh got in trouble with Epstein but on the other hand it was hard not to enjoy it meanwhile you know the law firm Perkins kui am I saying that right Koy I used to think it was koi but Perkins Koy so they're the ones who were behind uh Hillary Clinton's Russia you the Russia collusion hoax and some other things that Republicans don't like and so uh Trump Administration yanked their security clearances but there is some kind of challenge they found a judge of course you know one of the top law firms in Washington of course they found a judge who was willing to try to block it um to block the actions that the Trump administration's taking against them but I saw one article that says that um Perkins koi is not challenging the removal of their security clearances but then I saw another article that says they are so I don't know um it could be that they might want to say Well it can't be every single person who works here maybe it should only apply to the people who worked on that project but other people say um looks like we've got Mr.
Fart is back in the house so if uh if we could find a way to block him again why some people decide that that's the thing they're going to do unbelievable it's problem in the comments all right um so but one lawyer uh at pricken KI said that uh all of the uh the trouble that the Trump Administration is giving their Law Firm especially the security clearance part I think uh represents it's like a tsunami waiting to hit the firm so they do think it could just ruin their business entirely um but as Julie Kelly points out uh barl Howell I guess this is the judge who over saww the special counsel Robert Muller's investigation into the uh phony Trump Russia collusion and now she's the same person who's presiding over the Perkins kui lawsuit against the president now doesn't that seem like some kind of weird coincidence or you know some kind of conflict of interest um so she was on the the Robert Müller case and now she's on this Perkins koi thing and the Perkins koi P thing people were involved with the russ clusion hoax so that's a sort of an only in DC thing Julie mentions well in other news um the PA is getting rid of a a whole bunch of rules and one of them is the uh the uh endangerment finding so this is a finding Alex Epstein is talking about this on X it's a both it's a it's a finding that allowed Obama and Biden to ban gas cars and shut down power plants and slow us oil growth and lock up our you know Limitless natural gas says Alex and they're doing a lot more but this one seems like a big one so how much do you think this is going to make a difference to our economy if the EPA is sort of reduced in its impact well we should all be worried that things go too far and you know something will get polluted but as Lee Elden points out out of the EPA um they're they're very concerned to make sure that they're not making the air or the water dirtier but they want to get rid of just the BS part of the regulations should make a huge difference at the same time according to the verge uh the FCC chairman um Brendan Carr is asking the public for suggestions about how the FCC should get rid of uh regulations and I love that I I love getting the public involved because the public has a much better idea what stopped them from doing the thing they wanted to do so you're going to find small companies and big companies saying oh I've got an idea we tried to build this thing and we couldn't do it because of the I don't know one thing or another so if you could just get rid of that rule that'd be good so I love this I love the fact that he's involving the public because the public does know what things are the biggest problems and uh it's true transparent so if the fccc and the EPA make massive changes to deregulate the business Community is just going to love that so uh I would say that things are looking really good for the long run of our economy better than I've ever seen it actually let let me let me double down on that the current things that are being done under the Trump Administration are in my opinion the most positive things I've ever seen happen in one compressed period of time I've never seen anything this amazingly good from reducing regulations to even the Tariff stuff I think it's going to work out in the short run lots of uncertainty in the short run stock markets say we don't like uncertainty so they they plunge that's all built in and the if you can get one thing right about the economy it's to make sure that you got the long run right even if it has a little bit of pain in the short run that's the hardest thing to do is something you you'd have to do if you had a mandate and you were your second term and you were determined to get it right so this situation is so unusual if you add Doge you know the cost cutting and and really just finding out what kind of total corruption was in our system I'm almost as interested in the corruption and the money laundering and the the shadow government that was caused by all the NGS as I am about the cost cutting these are amazingly amazingly positive Trends now will the courts block everybody from doing everything they want it looks like it the the courts are trying to block just everything you know anything that Elon Musk wants to do anything that Trump wants to do somebody's going to find a friendly drud judge who will try to block it but I've never seen anything this positive in my entire life nothing with this much impact that could make a big difference in the long run Trump's proposing an idea to uh according to Howard lutnick us Commerce Secretary uh Trump's thinking about making uh everybody who earns under 150,000 a year pay no federal income tax now that's a stretch goal I don't think that one's going to happen right away but it it would include I I guess it it assumes that we'd be making more money from other countries as in tariffs Etc and here's the idea of forcing countries to pay a membership fee to sell in America now now I don't think that that's going to happen but the fact that that Trump would say you have to have a membership fee to even sell stuff in America that's kind of awesome it it seems like such a big idea that my first impression is oh you're never going to get away with that then my second impression is but why not if if America is the best economy to sell into you know we've got the biggest consumer base so people actually spend money then maybe there should be a cover charge I I think you should have a two drink minimum and a cover charge for getting into the American markets two drink minimum yep so we'll see if he can get away with that I don't even know if he's getting away with no tax on tips but this would be a pretty big deal um let's talk about Russia and Ukraine so as you know Ukraine agreed to a SE fire and Russia said that's crazy talk because the ceasefire just allows Ukraine to regroup and since Russia thinks it's winning they just recaptured a town in K so they they think that they're winning um they say no we we'll talk about a big piece deal you know where everything is included but no no uh no ceasefire now if you remember my prediction it was that he's going to have to agree to the ceasefire even though he doesn't want to to to keep his relationship with Trump productive because if Trump puts his reputation on the ceasefire which he's doing and then Putin is the reason it doesn't happen Trump's not going to be happy and and when Trump's not happy you know it right it's not going to be a silent will in my head I'm unhappy no Trump's already talking about you know massive sanctions on Russia I don't know what's left to sanction but seems like they would have sanctioned everything sanctionable by now but uh Trump is already talking about essentially putting the screws on uh on Russia so I'm going to double down on my um non-standard prediction if I were making a standard prediction I would say huh this ceasefire looks like a bad idea for Putin Putin's very smart he knows it's a bad idea because Ukraine will just put together their forces and come at him harder and so logic says that Putin would reject this which he has but I'm going to go I'm going to go with my feeling that the only chance Putin has of getting a good outcome is to work productively with Trump and Trump's making a very small ask it's a very small ask to take a month off of fighting um I think Putin might cave and I think he has to do it to maintain the relationship and that that's something that Trump brings to the table he makes sure that that you know that you don't get anything until you're dealing with him respectfully and seriously that's really powerful so um if you had to bet on it you you should bet against me because like I said it's a bad deal for Russia Russia knows it Putin's no idiot but I think the keeping the relationship with Trump productive I think that has a greater value than even whatever advantages Ukraine Got by the ceasefire now speaking of Ukraine apparently their drone Warfare is is really uh making a difference so something like 60% of all the uh destruction that Ukraine is doing on the military of Russia is with drones and I guess they're using a lot of AI drones that are way better so even when they get jammed they can just sort of look at the ground and say well I'm jammed but I know where I'm going because I'm just looking at the ground and I've got these landmarks and I know what to attack so but what what's not working apparently is swarms you know how all of us non-experts said oh it's going to be swarms yeah there's going to be these giant swarms of drones turns out that these swarms don't work too well with current technology because the signals interfere so there's just too many signals in too small a place so weirdly swarms haven't worked yet one assumes they'll figure that out eventually but at the um it's more like you know individual drones with AI and they're they're tough to stop all right um so uh let's talk about science journals here's something I didn't know so you probably know I've talked about a bunch of times how science has a reproducible reproducibility problem where if somebody gets a peer-reviewed um study into a science publication later if somebody says let's see if we can reproduce these results and usually they can't or at least half the time they can't so that suggests that a lot of what we think is science is literally just probably half of it some would say more but I didn't realize that there's a structural reason for it and the structural reason and I was just learning this uh today um did you know that it used to be that the scientific journals were basically a bunch of well-meaning scientists who would say well if you couldn't come to the conference uh here's a little newsletter basically that says what got presented at the conference now that was probably a mostly honest system where people were doing honest science not not right every time but at least they were honestly doing science and the scientists would say hey I think more people should have access to this so we'll put together a little publication nonprofit and we'll just make sure everybody sees it so that's the way it used to be apparently today the vast majority of scientific studies are in for-profit Publications for-profit Publications do you see the problem already the four profit Publications want to publish as much as possible and charge as much as possible they can charge you up to like a million dollars a year if you're a big university just to have their their papers and once you make it for profit don't you think they're going to accept a lot of papers that wouldn't have been accepted otherwise don't you think and I think that's exactly what's happening so as long as the the industry is is incentivized by the number of studies that get published um you're going to get a lot more fake studies because they're going to sort of even if they don't say so you can imagine that they would lower their standard because everybody's got their own their own uh objectives for their job you know there's going to be some editor who can't can't publish the magazine within a lot of studies in it so the more studies the more money I think they're going to get a little loose a little bit looser than what they accept so that seems to be an enormous problem in science right now and I don't think that there's uh I don't think there's a solution to it I'm not I don't believe anybody's recommended any kind of solution but at this point if you were to draw this system up on paper you would know that this is going to lead to massive corruption it's it's designed right into the system you know as as long as you follow the money you got to assume they're going to accept more than they would have otherwise anyway so as you know the Congress can't make any decisions on budgets so they do these continuing resolution things that just say ah we'll keep the budget basically the way it was because we can't decide but we'll we'll decide later and so that's what the Republicans are trying trying to do but Democrats point out um you know Adam Schiff pointed this out uh this is not a normal continuing resolution because it's not just you know continue on uh the Republicans made some fairly Republican changes so uh spending more on National Defense for example uh but the total amount is essentially what it was so the the continuing resol ution part where it's just we keep the same budget amount that's at least they kept that but within the details they did uh they did move stuff around in a republican way so now it looks like there might be some question whether the Democrats will support it in the Senate and uh Schumer saying it doesn't have the votes but then uh John th the um Senate uh what do you call it the Senate leader he's going to do a clo he's going to go for a clure vote how many of you know what that is clure uh I I had to ask my AI what it was just to make sure I thought I sort of knew but it means that they're going to U go for a vote they would say they're going to limit the debate and then they got to vote and I guess you need 60 Senators to say that you agree with clure so that they can all I know go on vacation or whatever it is that they need to do and I don't know if that's going to work I don't know if that's going to work but once again it looks like the the Democrats are in that performative mode where they're just going to pretend it's the end of the world and you know they're going to put on a lot of acts so we'll watch that Kevin o you know him as Mr.
Wonderful he was on CNN last night and he was talking about teachers unions being bad and he said uh our reading and math scores are the worst in the G7 in terms of how many dollars we spend to advance our children why unions that keep mediocre teachers in place when we should be firing them so I'm going to double down on that because of course I say the same thing I think the big biggest existential threat to the country except for debt debts number one um is the teachers unions because they're clearly creating a situation in which the test scores are down learning is down and America is falling behind its peers I'm pretty sure that's all the teachers unions because if you had any kind of competition competition almost certainly would have improved things so given that the teachers union their their two biggest objectives are to benefit teachers that's what a union does it benefits the teachers but in this case it's a special case where they're also benefiting the Democratic party so they're you know the biggest donors and supporters of the democratic party so if those are your two top priorities how in the world would you even expect that scores would be better and and they're all performative you know that Randy Wine Garden she's the most performative actress you've ever seen and she gets all you know all excited and she says things that generally might not check might not get through your fact Checker um so now she's all upset about the Department of Education you know being gutted even though it shouldn't make any difference to the States because the things that matter they would just hand the money to the states the things that didn't make any difference to anybody they'll cut probably won't make any difference at all so it just gets rid of some bureaucracy and the that the federal level but yeah I agree with Kevin o he's right on on and the fact that we don't talk about this every day I think it's because it's this slow moving disaster sort of like the debt you know you could push that debt thing down the the road for years which we did but at some point when the amount of interest on the debt is going to be bigger than our spending for National Defense which is sort of where we're at then suddenly you got to do a doge or you got to do something drastic so I don't know if the the schools would ever reach that point because you know next year is going to sort of look like this year and the one after maybe it's a little worse but not that much worse and I don't know that it ever reaches that critical point where you just say all right stop everything we've got to tear this whole system apart one way or another I don't know how but I think the main thing is school choice um I would love to think that there's something better than that but probably at the moment school choice is the thing so we'll see if that makes a difference well I told you about uh act blue so act blue is the Democrat organization that a allegedly is collecting small donations from all over the country and uh using it to help fund Democrats but it appears that at least it's partially a money laundering operation so James o'keef um found a specific situation where there was one one uh house that donated $116,000 to U Democrat Jas Crockett except they were retired and had no income so jamesie sent his person to knock on the door and I guess they said we didn't give any money to Jasmine Crockett don't know what you're talking about and so I do think we have evidence that I find convincing that uh act blue is not acting as blue as they should be that didn't make any sense but again if act blue is corrupt and all the NOS were corrupt and usaid was corrupt and the Biden crime family was corrupt and everything in Congress seems corrupt thank goodness that 2020 election was pristine huh to to imagine that it's not all corrupt is is just such a stretch at this point anyway remember the story about there's a that book that said that Gavin Nome uh funded his own bust to be put in the uh um where where would it be put in the some government building inside the San Francisco City all and remember I told you huh that story is a little bit too on the nose and the too on the nose part is that you imagine that Nome is sort of narcissistic and you know would care about that enough that he would he would fake that other people wanted the bus oh it's other people not me um so it was the story was a little too perfect and then I told you that books about this sort of thing are kind of low low credibility if you've seen all the books about you know the Trump Administration you know that most of those are just total so why would it be different if somebody wrote a book about Democrats well I mean I I don't know what percentage of the book was accurate what it wasn't but I did warn you that there's going to be another side to that story and sure enough Nome is basically denied that he had anything to do with funding it there were some entities connected with with Nome that gave some money he may or may not have known about it he did he did pose for the bust so he knew the bust was was being done but I kind of believe him that he wasn't really directly involved in funding it um so Ju Just know there's always two stories so that that one I think maybe leans in his Direction recently we found out according to just the news uh that during the time that Barack Obama was President and Biden was vice president that a lot of uh highly secure things were just emailed to Biden with his private email so so Biden the guy who had you know these stacks of boxes of of secure stuff in his garage uh apparently was just using his regular email that was at Alias but they were just emailing him like important National Secrets highly highly sensitive things just on email now no you assume that that means our adversaries captured that is there much chance that you know the best hackers in other countries can't get into regular email I don't know it's just amazing the the level of incompetence from the Biden the whole Biden situation is just incredible well according to Bloomberg um the the uh Trump Administration is going to follow up on something that the Biden Administration started which means that it's a bipartisan thing um to go after Microsoft for antitrust now I don't know what that includes because Microsoft is such a big sprawling organization but there there have always been allegations that they were involved in some kind of anti- competitive stuff so I don't know what these specific allegations are but it's notable that the Biden Administration started it and the Trump Administration is going to continue it so it does suggest that there's something there we'll find out how much that matters according to the Washington examiner there's a study on a Wisconsin that shows that requiring voter ID does not suppress the vote ahead of ballot decisions now I don't know that they can really study that but they found out that uh when they enacted voter ID law in Wisconsin the turnout increased by 1.5% but do you see what's wrong with that it increased by 1.5% the real question is how much would it have increased uh by itself so it's not like voter ID increased it and if the argument is that voter ID would suppress it then really what you need to know is well if it was 1.5 with voter ID what would it have been without voter ID now I since I'm completely in the camp that says voter ID is required and I don't think there's a single person who doesn't who I don't think there's a single person who's a legal resident wants to vote and can't figure out how to get an ID I just don't think they exist so I agree with the conclusion of the study although I don't think they they studied it in a way that I find compelling but uh I agree there's no way that voter ID is a Bad Thing uh according to Technical University of Munich um some people figured out how to make AI learning a 100 times faster you've probably heard how many times have I told you a story like that um but this one is instead of using their usual iterative method of training they have some kind of probabilistic um scheme and they can get just as good responses by not just doing everything but rather probabilistically knowing what to do to train it so that's the idiot explanation just know that there's something out there that already works it's not speculative it already works and it increases the efficiency by 100 times now this is just one of many stories that read that had that same quality it's like oh there's a new chip there's a new deep seek deep seek is one of those that's you know a whole different way to train cheaper so I've got a feeling that the cost of getting into the AI business is going to drop to the point where I don't even know if the big the big companies can keep any kind of Advantage at some point um especially if you have AIS that are being trained on other AIS I I feel like it's going to be hard for the biggest AI companies to keep a moat to keep other people from just knocking him off so we'll see um there's a story I wasn't going to get into about a specific police chief who happened to be the chief of police in Las Vegas at the same time Steven Paddock did that mass shooting of the Music Festival but then he left that job and he went to Maui where he became the police chief during the Lina fire now how could anybody be that unlucky you know imagine being the police chief in Las Vegas you're thinking ah Las Vegas seems like a pretty good place to be a police chief and then you have the biggest mass shooting and of course he was blamed for you know not investigating it enough and then he goes to Maui he's thinking to himself nothing ever happens in Maui I mean it's basically no crime so and then there's a Lina fire and I guess he got some criticism for that but now he's been named as a codefendant in a lawsuit re that involves uh sha Diddy combes how could one person get in that much trouble how's it even possible that one person could go from the Las Vegas shooting to the behind of fire to getting in trouble with it with Diddy and and by the way I don't I don't have a criticism of this police chief it could be just really bad luck you know it could be that the Diddy thing is just an association of an association and doesn't mean anything it could be that the Las Vegas and Lina thing everybody's criticizing everybody so maybe it wasn't that bad but uh that's a heck of a lot of trouble for one person to be into well yeah I see it in the comments somebody saying he's corrupt but really to me that just looks like horrible luck you know whether or not he did a good job in those cases I'm I can't judge but that looks like really bad luck anyway we'll we'll keep a uh innocent till proven guilty opinion on that all right that ladies and gentlemen is all I have today uh I guess we'll watch the tariffs tariffs will be on the tariffs will be off but I'm uh quite convinced that what Trump is doing with tariffs is looking better and better and I feel like I also understand it now and by understanding it um I said this yesterday I think what he's doing is making sure that other countries treat it like it's their top priority to figure out how to deal with us in terms of trade and if that's the only thing the tariffs do is scare the beesus out of other countries and they say all right all right let's talk about you know our whole tariff situation that's a big win because the way it looks now this might be just the American spin on things but the way it looks is that we have been screwed by other countries uh for a long time and if we sat down and said all right look at all the things you're doing to us and look at the few things we're doing to you this is totally imbalanced I don't think that any country wanted to have that conversation because I thought they you know it feels like they all thought they were getting away with a little bit of something and if Trump only just shines this giant light on the imbalance and of the tariffs it seems to me there's a good good chance that he'll be able to negotiate better deals than we have and that would be amazing for our economy just amazing the other thing is you know I mentioned earlier that lutnick talked about a um sort of a fee just to join the club to sell to America maybe that's the faster way to do it instead of negotiating every single tariff maybe that's just too much work and there's lots of complexity there you just say here's a deal if you want to be in our Market this is what you're going to pay per year maybe so I like the fact he's putting all those ideas out there it's all negotiable but if the one thing that Trump did was make sure that the other countries dropped their other priorities and said uh oh uh oh we can't really go a month with a 50% or a 200% tariff on a key industry so we're going to need to deal with this right away that's all he needs all he needs is I want your complete attention what is it that I've taught you about persuasion do you remember the first rule of persuasion it's the first rule it's the big one you got to get their attention it's by far the most important one because if you don't get somebody's attention it doesn't matter if you're repeating and doing all the right things they're just not paying attention so Trump took this situation where really nobody was paying attention and made everybody pay attention so if you want to score it on persuasion phase one get their attention 100% A+ A+ now that doesn't mean everything's going to work out but if you were get it just going to score phase one 100% success everybody's paying attention everybody put it at their top priority everybody's responding they're of course putting up a fight but boy are they pay paying attention so that's a A+ and I think that's why Goldman Sachs and uh you know other big business people are are giving Trump some room to operate because I think they completely understand this first you get their attention and then we'll see what happens so that's all I got today I'll talk to the locals people privately for the rest of you You.
Tube and Rumble and X I'll see you tomorrow same time same place thanks for joining all right e e e e
it's time for a show let's get my
comments
working and then we'll go
wild it'll be
amazing good morning everybody and
welcome to the highlight of human
civilization it's called coffee with
scottt Adams and you've never had a
better time but if you'd like to take
this experience up to levels that nobody
can even understand what their tiny
shiny human brains all you need for that
is a c Mar a glass of tanker chel and St
a canteen jug a flask a vessel of any
kind fill it with your favorite liquid I
like coffee and join me now for the
unparallel pleasure the dope mean here
the day thing makes everything better
it's called the simultaneous Sip and it
happens right now
go so good so good well there's nothing
that makes me happier than watching
president Trump uh mock Rosie
O'Donnell So Yesterday by coincidence
after Rosie O'Donnell announced that
she's moving to Ireland the prime
minister of Ireland of Ireland was in
the way
house and the president's talking to the
Prime Minister and Trump says quote
Ireland is known for very happy
funloving people why in the world would
you let Rosie o' Donald move to
[Laughter]
Ireland why would you let her move she's
going to ruin the whole
country
oh well I've got one data point that's
not scientific but according to Matt
vanin swall he was just talking to I
guess yesterday he was talking to a
sales rep for
Tesla and the sales rep said it's one of
the busiest days they've ever had for
sales so after Trump bought his Tesla a
lot of people apparently followed suit
so Tesla had one of one of his best days
ever I have a feeling that's going to
continue for a little while so we'll see
um you know one of the biggest the
biggest changes for Tesla is it did seem
like it was a little bit of a climate
change lever kind of a car so I think
Republicans were a little bit you know
I'll take my gas powered truck thank you
uh I don't need your electric cars but
now that it's uh so clearly a political
thing there a whole bunch of uh Trump
lovers are saying oh yeah it's a great
car are you kidding me everybody wants
one so if you add the uh Democrats who
just like a good car to the Republicans
who might buy one partly for political
reasons it could actually end up being
good for Tesla net maybe we'll see could
go either
way well Mike Johnson House speaker Mike
Johnson he says that Congress is going
to investigate quote the domestic
terrorist
against the Tesla dealerships and
charging stations because there's been
vandalism of Destruction and set fires
and all that stuff and uh yeah domestic
terrorism that's exactly right at what
point does the domestic terrorism though
become a
RICO does there have to be like do you
have to steal something to make it
REO but if you have a large organized
well-funded group
whose job it is to destroy these tessla
places even if they don't have
directions to say set it on fire or
vandalize it they know what's
happening so if the organizers know that
their actions will cause vandalism at
various
places at what point does it become Rico
if we can you we have visibility to the
entire funding apparatus that everything
else anyway so Elon Musk is trying again
to get the courts to uh agree to his 56
billion Tesla pay package that was
disapproved by a lower
court and the thing that occurred to me
today is if he gets a $ 56 billion
payday do you know how much taxes that
means so you know I don't know his whole
tag situation but it could be 37% of
that goes to federal taxes it it would
be one of the greatest gains for for the
government in in terms of paying down
the debt almost nothing would be more
you know immediately impactful than just
paying Elon Musk the amount that he's
he's owed and he's going to pay billions
of dollars in taxes I
think speaking of Elon um I guess
yesterday they tried to launch the
rocket to go get the astronauts that are
stranded on the International Space
Station but they had a little technical
problem it looks like they might try
again on Friday
morning um and I'm wondering will
Democrats Comm out in favor of leaving
them stranded now that sounds like a
joke right oh the Democrats disagree
with everything no matter how logical it
is so maybe they'll be opposed to Elon
Musk say saving the lives and rescuing
the
astronauts but Biden actually was
opposed that's a real
thing and one imagines that Biden wasn't
the only one he just didn't want Elon
Musk to get a
win so he left the astronauts up there
do you think those astronauts are
Democrats or Republicans when they come
back I've got a feeling that they they
left the Earth as Democrats but they're
coming back as hardcore
Republicans let me tell you my rule if I
ever get stranded in an International
Space
Station and and the party that I belong
to decides they don't want to come get
me and the other party says I'll do it
and they send up a rocket and they save
me I'm switching parties right away it's
like okay okay you got my vote got my
vote any any way I'd like to give you a
tariff update you know a lot of stuff's
happening in tariffs and the Tariff
update goes like this uh there's some
countries have some tariffs against us
so Trump put some tariffs on them but
then they put some tariffs on us then
they negotiated some of it some of the
tariffs went away but then we tariffed
them then they tariffed us then we went
up 200% then they went up 50% and then
there was a tariff and then there was
not a tariff and then there was a
tariff it's almost a waste of time
to give you any update on tariffs
because it's changing so quickly and you
know sort of a negotiation so um I guess
we're not going to be able to cheaply
get alcohol from
Europe how much does that affect you if
I said to you damn it no more French
wine and champagne you're going to have
to drink that California
stuff do you think you could live with
that
I don't know if you're aware of this but
California makes really good wine I'm
not in favor of alcohol by the way but
you know it's a free country so I'm kind
of
wondering at what point do the tariffs
start costing me money in any category
that I care about like how long does it
take before that you know Works its way
through the
economy I don't know it it seems like
they keep tariffing things that don't
immediately affect me because even if
they do things that affect the price of
cars if I were to buy a car this month
it's already
built so I'd have to wait several months
before a the cost of a car went up I
don't
know so we'll see but according to the
hill uh the CEO of Goldman Sachs said
this about
tariffs uh this is David Solomon he said
that the business community community
quote understands what Trump is trying
to do with the levies on various Goods
meaning tariffs he says that Trump is
more engaged with the business Community
than his White House predecessor Biden
now that's a kind of a big deal to get
the head of Goldman Sachs to not say
anything negative about
tariffs that's a big deal because it
would be so easy to say
well well you know it's causing some
chaos or you know there's uncertainty in
the markets it'd be so easy to come up
with something negative to say but when
Goldman Sachs decides to say yeah the
business Community understands why he's
doing it that's a really big statement
so I think this is telling us
something meanwhile inflation was down
as you know and uh you probably noticed
if you're on X that uh once again the
Democrats were doing the identical
messages have you seen that so they're
doing identical messages about um well
actually identical they were copy paste
I think there were 50 different
Democrats who had the same message I
don't even know what it was it was
boring but then somebody said oh yeah oh
yeah well Republicans do that too and it
showed a whole bunch of messages
from people who noted that egg prices
were down gas prices were down and
inflation and mortgage rates were
down and so the Democrat who found all
those was saying yeah see you guys do
the same thing except none of them were
cut and paste every one of them was
written individually and it was a
headline that day all they were doing is
talking about the good news that was in
the headlines which is what we all do
if there's good economic news and it
favors your team of course you're going
to Tweet about it or post about it but
here's what I think about the uh
inflation looking good and uh I guess
jobs are kind of pretty close to in line
to what we expected jobless claims it
basically gives Trump a month of
breathing room because until and if
things start turning the other way
people are going to say oh well it looks
like that tariff stuff didn't really
change anything at least it didn't make
anything more expensive so the best news
is not just that the interest rates are
down and and eggs and gas are less
expensive the good news is he gives
Trump another 30 days of operating space
and if he gets two in a row I wouldn't
predict it but it's POS possible if he
gets two months in a row where things
look down in terms of prices he's going
to have a lot of wiggle room you know
after after two months of threatening
every kind of tariff in the world if
prices go
down and they could because a lot of it
is based on expectations for the you
know the future economy so if the
economy looks like it's a little
soft prices can go down I don't know if
that's directly what's affecting it I I
suspect that with gas and with eggs has
more to do with just something specific
to those
domains so I was watching Bernie Sanders
do some event he's going around talking
to Big groups gave an
interview and
uh this is what Bernie Sanders says
about the Trump Administration he says
it's the scariest time in his
life and I thought
really this is the scariest time in your
life why and he said blah blah blah
oligarchs
so so the the Democrats are trying to
find this way to you know bond with with
their base you know really talk like the
regular person do you know any regular
person who complains about
oligarchs have you ever heard that I've
never heard that once I've never heard
like just an ordinary voter say
something like uh you know there are a
few things I like about the world but
man it's a scary time because of the
oligarchs I would go so far as to say
there 70% of the entire Democrat base
thinks that oligarch is one of the
chemicals that RFK Jr is trying to
remove from
food it's the weakest dumbest completely
disconnected from any kind of reality
thing it's the scariest time in his life
blah blah blah
oligarchs Bernie's lost it he's
completely lost
it have you seen the uh compilation
Clips on X or other places where it
shows the uh prominent Democrats
literally saying we've got to got to get
rid of the uh waste Fraud and Abuse in
our big social programs and they're very
careful to say no no we're not talking
about cutting benefits we're only
talking about getting rid of the waste
fraud and you know corruption and abuse
and it's literally exactly what doge is
saying exactly what Trump is saying and
it it couldn't be more
obvious that the Democrats are a
performative group and have you noticed
that people starting to use those
words that they're kind of theater kids
and they're
performing because the they they showed
the same the same amount of enthusiasm
for cutting waste Fraud and Abuse as
they do now for criticizing musk for
cutting the waste Fraud and Abuse now
they have to throw in that oh you should
use a scalpel and not a chainsaw like
like that's
useful um so they you know they can
pretend they have some reason but not
really I don't think the Democrats have
any core beliefs at this point I think
they just do what they think they can
perform best yeah I think I can I think
I can sell this you know trans
everything let's let's try to sell that
and then they'll act really hurt and
worried and concerned and none of it's
real it's just completely not real it's
all
performative and that that's what
happens when the 50 Democrats all do the
same message on
X is performative they're not even
pretending it's their own opinions it's
literally just the script that they've
been handed and they just print the
script so there is such a big difference
now between the parties and it's not
just on policy as far as I can tell and
i' would love to know if somebody has a
counter example of this there might be
but I swear it seems like Republicans
just do what Republicans always would do
they want to cut your taxes they want to
get rid of the regulations they want
smaller government they want to get rid
of the Department of Education they want
to move things to the states and the
federal government and those things seem
like the things they've always wanted
and they always made sense from you know
from their perspective and they're still
talking about it to me that seems
completely genuine
now you could argue it's a good policy
or a bad policy but you can't argue that
they really believe those things and and
they're trying to pursue them whereas
the
Democrats it it's all
um it's all like theater kids killing a
president it's it's John wils
Booth times 100 CU if you think about it
a lot of the Democrat work was just
trying to take Trump out it's the same
as John wils Booth it's a theater guy he
was literally an actor so it's literally
just theater
people going after a president it's the
damnest thing to to imagine that these
parties are somehow equivalent and that
it's oh it's just a difference of you
know which policies you like nothing
like that is happening there is one side
that is purely acting and the moment
they need to act the other way they will
turn on a dime Republicans don't do that
at all Republicans are pretty dug in on
what it means to be a
republican
anyway um so Doge has a cancelled a a
National Institute of Health grant that
would uh was trying to prevent pregnancy
and transgender
boys let me say that
again Doge canel a grant that was meant
to prevent pregnancy in transgender
boys now you know how they always say
you got a cut with a scalpel not a
chainsaw there's going to be now a wave
of pregnant
boys that could have been
prevented if they just used the scalpel
instead of a
chainsaw yes I'm being
sarcastic I also wonder have you notied
the lack of
complaining that even though tons of
things are being caught uh tons of
things are being cut the complaining is
just the professional
actors the people who literally are you
know Democrat elected officials who are
just acting or the people on the news
who are just acting but I don't see any
real people who are who are going to
protest because boys are going to have
more babies trans
boys so I feel like there's a whole lot
of giving up on the Democrat
side as in yeah you know we don't really
want to fight about that yeah you can
have that one yeah okay you can get rid
of the fraud waste and abuse
sure
anyway um it also seems to me that uh
all the Dem R organizations and all the
grants they all seem criminal to me just
just everything seems criminal we'll
talk about act blue and we've talked
about
usaid we've talked about you know the
tens of thousands of
NOS they all seem
criminal and it's so consistent and it
makes me wonder are there also
equivalents like that on the Republican
side of the world and maybe just don't
hear about it is is everything corrupt
you know once it reaches a certain scale
or is just everything that Democrats do
corrupt and I'm trying not to say it
like a you know like I'm just taking
sides I'm just
observing it seems to me that every
single time anybody digs into anything
uh Democrats are doing it looks corrupt
corrupt as hell so maybe it's 100% so uh
Steve Bannon went on Governor Newsome's
podcast and here's something that
Newsome said he said the grievance
narrative that comes from Trump uh this
notion that he's a victim and Steve
Bannon chimes in with they did try to
put him in prison for 300 years
right see the this is the
downside of Gavin Newsome having a
podcast
because that is the right answer yeah
why why is Trump always acting like he's
a victim you tried to put him in jail
for nothing for 300 years you you may
have thrown the election in 2020 that's
Steve Bannon says and I love the fact
that Steve Bannon can just go on a major
podcast with a with a major Democrat and
just say we believe the 20120 election
was
rigged now I don't have proof of that
but
what are the odds that every single
thing that we've looked into is rigged
and corrupt except the election
everything else just everything else but
not the
election I know it's kind of hard to
believe that it would be the one thing
that's not
corrupt anyway uh former Chicago mayor
according to the Gateway pundit um Rah
Emanuel is maybe allegedly Ang to be a
presidential
candidate um here's my take on that
uhoh now I've been telling you that all
the Democrats need is a charismatic good
candidate if they just had a good
candidate then it would suddenly they
would be competitive like right on the
Block and the fact that they don't have
seemingly they don't have any skills
whatsoever um but R Manuel
he's got the whole
package he's got experience he's got
connections you know he's deeply
connected to the Obama world so he could
probably raise money like
crazy and he's also funny and that's a
problem if you're a republican that's a
problem he's funny he's common
sense and he's smart as
hell so I wouldn't want to run against
him honestly yeah he's he he's got the
whole package now I I never really
thought about him as a potential
presidential candidate but as soon as I
saw that name I said uh oh uh oh that's
that's an actual serious candidate now
if you compare him to let's say Gavin
Newsome Gavin Newsome also has some
political
skill but he also has tons of Scandal
because he presided over a city that
went to hell San Francisco and then a
state that went to hell
so you know uh I don't think Rah Emanuel
has quite those
problems so I'd worry about him the big
question would be could the Democrats
back another older white guy do you
think an older white guy can get elected
now as
president you know it was impressive
that he ever became mayor of Chicago but
president I don't know I'm not sure if
the Democrat Coalition would allow that
you know they they had some special
feeling for
Biden um that didn't always make sense
to me so I don't think R Emanuel would
have that Biden you know sort of
affection but that'd be a problem
because you know they're all about the
diversity and if they run another white
guy it's going to be sort of a glaring
glaring non- diversity
situation anyway the other the other
problem with Rah
Emanuel and I'm not sure about this give
me a fact check on this but when I've
seen him in public and he's he's
criticizing
Republicans I don't think he makes stuff
up which would make him unique among
Democrats Democrats generally just lie
so they say oh doge is going to cut your
social
services but the truth is the only Cuts
they're looking for are the waste Fraud
and Abuse which wouldn't cut anybody's
services in fact might protect them
because there would be more money to
actually pay people so if he doesn't lie
could he win because mostly what
Democrats have is those kind of Lies oh
Trump is a dictator I know would Rah
Emanuel say that it's so
stupid uh Trump's going to cut your
Social Security he's
not well he wouldn't be running against
Trump but this whoever he's running
against would he say that that person is
going to be cutting all your Social
Services when he knows when he knows
that it's not going to
happen I don't know so he'd be an
interesting one but I'd worry about him
a little
bit uh
meanwhile so here's a good example in uh
axios there's a headline that says doge
is taking its wrecking ball to the
Social Security Administration the
agency responsible for overseeing
retirement and disability benefits for
73 million Americans now if you saw that
headline it would look like they're
cutting
benefits to people who get Social
Security
right that's not the story the story is
that they're cutting the staff and they
have very old you know computer systems
and so there are some issues about
whether it can just function with fewer
people I I imagine it can I don't I'm
not too worried about it but that's the
sort of lie it wasn't a lie technically
because they the article describes what
they're talking about but that's the
sort of thing that the Democrats have to
run on they have to just make stuff up
because they don't have real stuff
because otherwise they're running
against common sense so they have to
they have to uh assign stupid opinions
to Republicans
just so they have something to complain
about oh I think he wants to kill all
the babies what nobody said anything
like that oh yeah I'm pretty sure he's
indicated he wants to kill all the
babies
no all
right um there's a story about the
former CEO of Barclays the
bank that uh apparently he had sex with
Epstein's assistant we don't know how
old that was but uh the funny part about
it was uh so he's admitted in court I
don't know what the court case was about
but he admitted that he he uh was
involved in the the Jeffrey Epstein
World there and uh they're looking to
ban him from the industry blah blah blah
but apparently they discovered a
thousand emails like really friendly
emails to Jeffrey
Epstein and he says he doesn't remember
them he sent a thousand emails I don't
remember doing that really really I sent
some emails huh I I don't have any
memory of that there were a thousand of
them yeah so he doesn't remember just
daily now I'd be lying if I didn't tell
you
this um Barkley's bank went after me
once in the past and because it's a you
know a court situation I can't tell you
the details but oh my god do I hate that
bank let's just say that U my point of
view uh is quite
supportable and barklay is can't tell
you what that was about but I do not
like that bank so I don't want to be too
happy because they're ex CEO he's not
the current CEO uh got in trouble with
Epstein but on the other hand it was
hard not to enjoy
it meanwhile you know the law firm
Perkins kui am I saying that right Koy I
used to think it was koi but Perkins Koy
so they're the ones who were behind uh
Hillary Clinton's Russia you the Russia
collusion
hoax and some other things that
Republicans don't like and so uh Trump
Administration yanked their security
clearances but there is some kind of
challenge they found a judge of course
you know one of the top law firms in
Washington of course they found a judge
who was willing to try to block it um to
block the actions that the Trump
administration's taking against them but
I saw one article that says that um
Perkins koi is not challenging the
removal of their security clearances but
then I saw another article that says
they are so I don't know um it could be
that they might want to say Well it
can't be every single person who works
here maybe it should only apply to the
people who worked on that project but
other people
say um looks like we've got Mr Fart is
back in the house so if uh if we could
find a way to block him again
why some people decide that that's the
thing they're going to do
unbelievable it's problem in the
comments all right
um so but one lawyer uh at pricken KI
said that uh all of the uh the trouble
that the Trump Administration is giving
their Law Firm especially the security
clearance part I think uh represents
it's like a tsunami waiting to hit the
firm so they do think it could just ruin
their business
entirely um but as Julie Kelly points
out uh barl Howell I guess this is the
judge who over saww the special counsel
Robert Muller's investigation into the
uh phony Trump Russia collusion and now
she's the same person who's presiding
over the Perkins kui lawsuit against the
president now doesn't that seem like
some kind of weird coincidence
or you know some kind of conflict of
interest um so she was on the the Robert
Müller case and now she's on this
Perkins koi thing and the Perkins koi P
thing people were involved with the russ
clusion hoax so that's a sort of an only
in DC thing Julie
mentions well in other
news um the PA is getting rid of a a
whole bunch of rules and one of them is
the uh the uh endangerment finding so
this is a finding Alex Epstein is
talking about this on X it's a both it's
a it's a finding that allowed Obama and
Biden to ban gas cars and shut down
power plants and slow us oil growth and
lock up our you know Limitless natural
gas says Alex and they're doing a lot
more but this one seems like a big one
so how much do you think this is going
to make a
difference to our economy if the EPA is
sort of reduced in its impact well we
should all be worried that things go too
far and you know something will get
polluted but as Lee Elden points out out
of the EPA um they're they're very
concerned to make sure that they're not
making the air or the water dirtier but
they want to get rid of just the BS part
of the regulations should make a huge
difference at the same time according to
the
verge uh the FCC
chairman um Brendan Carr is asking the
public for suggestions about how the FCC
should get rid of uh
regulations and I love that I I love
getting the public involved because the
public has a much better idea what
stopped them from doing the thing they
wanted to do so you're going to find
small companies and big companies saying
oh I've got an idea we tried to build
this thing and we couldn't do it because
of the I don't know one thing or another
so if you could just get rid of that
rule that'd be good so I love this I
love the fact that he's involving the
public because the public does know what
things are the biggest problems and uh
it's true transparent so if the fccc and
the EPA make massive changes to
deregulate the business Community is
just going to love that so uh I would
say that things are looking really good
for the long run of our economy better
than I've ever seen it actually let let
me let me double down on
that the current things that are being
done under the Trump
Administration are in my opinion the
most positive things I've ever seen
happen in one compressed period of time
I've never seen anything this amazingly
good from reducing regulations to even
the Tariff stuff I think it's going to
work out in the short run lots of
uncertainty in the short run stock
markets say we don't like uncertainty so
they they plunge that's all built
in and the if you can get one thing
right about the economy it's to make
sure that you got the long run right
even if it has a little bit of pain in
the short run that's the hardest thing
to do is something you you'd have to do
if you had a mandate and you were your
second term and you were determined to
get it right so this situation is so
unusual if you add Doge you know the
cost cutting and and really just finding
out what kind of total corruption was in
our system I'm almost as interested in
the corruption and the money laundering
and the the shadow government that was
caused by all the
NGS as I am about the cost cutting these
are amazingly amazingly positive Trends
now will the courts block everybody from
doing everything they want it looks like
it the the courts are trying to block
just everything you know anything that
Elon Musk wants to do anything that
Trump wants to do somebody's going to
find a friendly drud judge who will try
to block
it but I've never seen anything this
positive in my entire life nothing with
this much impact that could make a big
difference in the long run Trump's
proposing an idea to uh according to
Howard lutnick us Commerce Secretary uh
Trump's thinking about making uh
everybody who earns under 150,000 a year
pay no federal income
tax now that's a stretch goal I don't
think that one's going to happen right
away but it it would include I I guess
it it assumes that we'd be making more
money from other countries as
in tariffs
Etc and here's the idea of forcing
countries to pay a membership fee to
sell in
America now now I don't think that
that's going to happen but the fact that
that Trump would say you have to have a
membership fee to even sell stuff in
America that's kind of
awesome it it seems like such a big idea
that my first impression is oh you're
never going to get away with that then
my second impression is but why not if
if America is the best economy to sell
into you know we've got the biggest
consumer base so people actually spend
money then maybe there should be a cover
charge I I think you should have a two
drink minimum and a cover charge for
getting into the American markets two
drink minimum
yep so we'll see if he can get away with
that I don't even know if he's getting
away with no tax on tips but this would
be a pretty big
deal um let's talk about Russia and
Ukraine so as you know Ukraine agreed to
a SE fire and Russia said that's crazy
talk because the ceasefire just allows
Ukraine to regroup and since Russia
thinks it's winning they just recaptured
a town in K so they they think that
they're
winning um they say no we we'll talk
about a big piece deal you know where
everything is included but no no uh no
ceasefire now if you remember my
prediction it was
that he's going to have to agree to the
ceasefire even though he doesn't want to
to to keep his relationship with Trump
productive because if Trump puts his
reputation on the ceasefire which he's
doing and then Putin is the reason it
doesn't
happen Trump's not going to be happy and
and when Trump's not
happy you know it right it's not going
to be a silent will in my head I'm
unhappy no Trump's already talking about
you know massive sanctions on Russia I
don't know what's left to sanction but
seems like they would have sanctioned
everything sanctionable by now but uh
Trump is already talking about
essentially putting the screws on uh on
Russia so I'm going to double down on my
um non-standard prediction if I were
making a standard prediction I would say
huh this ceasefire looks like a bad idea
for Putin
Putin's very smart he knows it's a bad
idea because Ukraine will just put
together their forces and come at him
harder and so logic says that Putin
would reject
this which he has but I'm going to go
I'm going to go with my feeling that the
only chance Putin has of getting a good
outcome is to work productively with
Trump and Trump's making a very small
ask it's a very small ask to take a
month off of
fighting um I think Putin might
cave and I think he has to do it to
maintain the relationship and that
that's something that Trump brings to
the table he makes sure that that you
know that you don't get anything until
you're dealing with him respectfully and
seriously that's really
powerful so um if you had to bet on it
you you should bet against
me because like I said it's a bad deal
for Russia Russia knows it Putin's no
idiot but I think the keeping the
relationship with Trump
productive I think that has a greater
value than even whatever advantages
Ukraine Got by the
ceasefire now speaking of Ukraine
apparently their drone Warfare is is
really uh making a difference
so something like 60% of all the uh
destruction that Ukraine is doing on the
military of Russia is with drones and I
guess they're using a lot of AI drones
that are way better so even when they
get jammed they can just sort of look at
the ground and say well I'm jammed but I
know where I'm going because I'm just
looking at the ground and I've got these
landmarks and I know what to attack
so but what what's not working
apparently is
swarms you know how all of us
non-experts said oh it's going to be
swarms yeah there's going to be these
giant swarms of drones turns out that
these swarms don't work too well with
current technology because the signals
interfere so there's just too many
signals in too small a place so weirdly
swarms haven't worked yet one assumes
they'll figure that out eventually but
at the
um it's more like you know individual
drones with AI and they're they're tough
to
stop all
right
um so uh let's talk about science
journals here's something I didn't know
so you probably know I've talked about a
bunch of times how science has a
reproducible reproducibility problem
where if somebody gets a peer-reviewed
um study into a science
publication later if somebody says let's
see if we can reproduce these results
and usually they can't or at least half
the time they can't so that suggests
that a lot of what we think is science
is literally just probably half
of it some would say more but I didn't
realize that there's a structural reason
for it and the structural reason and I
was just learning this uh today
um did you know that it used to be that
the scientific journals were basically a
bunch of well-meaning
scientists who would say well if you
couldn't come to the conference uh
here's a little newsletter basically
that says what got presented at the
conference now that was probably a
mostly honest system where people were
doing honest science not not right every
time but at least they were honestly
doing science
and the scientists would say hey I think
more people should have access to this
so we'll put together a little
publication
nonprofit and we'll just make sure
everybody sees it so that's the way it
used to be apparently today the vast
majority of scientific studies are in
for-profit
Publications for-profit
Publications do you see the problem
already the four profit Publications
want to publish as much as possible and
charge as much as possible they can
charge you up to like a million dollars
a year if you're a big university just
to have their their
papers and once you make it for profit
don't you think they're going to accept
a lot of papers that wouldn't have been
accepted
otherwise don't you
think and I think that's exactly what's
happening so as long as the the industry
is is incentivized by the number of
studies that get
published um you're going to get a lot
more fake studies because they're going
to sort of even if they don't say so you
can imagine that they would lower their
standard because everybody's got their
own their own uh objectives for their
job you know there's going to be some
editor who can't can't publish the
magazine within a lot of studies in it
so the more studies the more money
I think they're going to get a little
loose a little bit looser than what they
accept so that seems to be an enormous
problem in science right now and I don't
think that
there's uh I don't think there's a
solution to it I'm not I don't believe
anybody's recommended any kind of
solution but at this point if you were
to draw this system up on paper you
would know that this is going to lead to
massive
corruption it's it's
designed right into the system you know
as as long as you follow the money you
got to assume they're going to accept
more than they would have
otherwise
anyway so as you know the Congress can't
make any decisions on budgets so they do
these continuing resolution things that
just say ah we'll keep the budget
basically the way it was because we
can't decide but we'll we'll decide
later and so that's what the Republicans
are trying trying to do but Democrats
point out um you know Adam Schiff
pointed this out uh this is not a normal
continuing resolution because it's not
just you know continue on uh the
Republicans made some fairly Republican
changes so uh spending more on National
Defense for example uh but the total
amount is essentially what it was so the
the continuing resol ution part where
it's just we keep the same budget amount
that's at least they kept that but
within the details they did uh they did
move stuff around in a republican way so
now it looks like there might be some
question whether the Democrats will
support it in the Senate and uh Schumer
saying it doesn't have the votes
but then uh John th
the um
Senate uh what do you call it the Senate
leader he's going to do
a clo he's going to go for a clure vote
how many of you know what that is
clure uh I I had to ask my AI what it
was just to make sure I thought I sort
of knew but it means that they're going
to U go for a vote they would say
they're going to limit the debate and
then they got to vote and I guess you
need 60 Senators to say that you agree
with clure so that they can all I know
go on vacation or whatever it is that
they need to do and I don't know if
that's going to work I don't know if
that's going to
work but once again it looks like the
the Democrats are in that performative
mode where they're just going to pretend
it's the end of the world and you know
they're going to put on a lot of
acts so we'll watch that
Kevin
o you know him as Mr Wonderful he was on
CNN last night and he was talking about
teachers unions being bad and he said uh
our reading and math scores are the
worst in the G7 in terms of how many
dollars we spend to advance our children
why unions that keep mediocre teachers
in place when we should be firing them
so I'm going to double down on that
because of course I say the same thing I
think the big biggest existential threat
to the country except for debt debts
number
one um is the teachers
unions because they're clearly creating
a situation in which the test scores are
down learning is down and America is
falling behind its peers I'm pretty sure
that's all the teachers unions because
if you had any kind of
competition competition almost certainly
would have improved things so given that
the teachers union their their two
biggest objectives are to benefit
teachers that's what a union does it
benefits the teachers but in this case
it's a special case where they're also
benefiting the Democratic
party so they're you know the biggest
donors and supporters of the democratic
party so if those are your two top
priorities how in the world would you
even expect that scores would be better
and and they're all performative you
know that Randy Wine Garden she's the
most performative actress you've ever
seen and she gets all you know all
excited and she says things that
generally might not check might not get
through your fact Checker um so now
she's all upset about the Department of
Education you know being gutted even
though it shouldn't make any difference
to the States because the things that
matter they would just hand the money to
the states the things that didn't make
any difference to anybody they'll cut
probably won't make any difference at
all so it just gets rid of some
bureaucracy and the that the federal
level but yeah I agree with Kevin o he's
right on on and the fact that we don't
talk about this every
day I think it's because it's this slow
moving disaster sort of like the debt
you know you could push that debt thing
down the the road for years which we did
but at some point when the amount of
interest on the debt is going to be
bigger than our spending for National
Defense which is sort of where we're at
then suddenly you got to do a doge or
you got to do something drastic so I
don't know if the the schools would ever
reach that point because you know next
year is going to sort of look like this
year and the one after maybe it's a
little worse but not that much worse and
I don't know that it ever reaches that
critical point where you just say all
right stop
everything we've got to tear this whole
system apart one way or another I don't
know
how but I think the main thing is school
choice um I would love to think that
there's something better than
that but probably at the moment school
choice is the thing so we'll see if that
makes a difference well I told you about
uh act blue so act blue is the Democrat
organization that a allegedly is
collecting small donations from all over
the country and uh using it to help fund
Democrats but it appears that at least
it's partially a money laundering
operation so James
o'keef um found a specific situation
where there was one one uh house that
donated
$116,000 to U Democrat Jas
Crockett except they were retired and
had no
income so jamesie sent his person to
knock on the door and I guess they said
we didn't give any money to Jasmine
Crockett don't know what you're talking
about and so I do think we have evidence
that I find
convincing that uh act blue
is not acting as blue as they should be
that didn't make any sense but
again if act blue is corrupt and all the
NOS were corrupt and usaid was corrupt
and the Biden crime family was corrupt
and everything in Congress seems corrupt
thank goodness that 2020 election was
pristine
huh to to imagine that it's not all
corrupt is is just such a stretch at
this
point anyway remember the story about
there's a that book that said that Gavin
Nome uh funded his own bust to be put in
the uh um where where would it be put in
the some government building inside the
San Francisco City all and remember I
told you huh that story is a little bit
too on the nose and the too on the nose
part is that you imagine that Nome is
sort of narcissistic and you know would
care about that enough that he would he
would fake that other people wanted the
bus oh it's other people not me um so it
was the story was a little too perfect
and then I told you that books about
this sort of thing are kind of low low
credibility if you've seen all the books
about you know the Trump
Administration you know that most of
those are just total so why
would it be different if somebody wrote
a book about
Democrats well I mean I I don't know
what percentage of the book was accurate
what it wasn't but I did warn you that
there's going to be another side to that
story and sure
enough Nome is basically denied that he
had anything to do with funding it there
were some entities connected with with
Nome that gave some money he may or may
not have known about it he did he did
pose for the bust so he knew the bust
was was being done but I kind of believe
him that he wasn't really directly
involved in funding it
um so Ju Just know there's always two
stories so that that one I think maybe
leans in his
Direction recently we found out
according to just the
news uh that during the time that Barack
Obama was President and Biden was vice
president that a lot of uh highly secure
things were just emailed to Biden with
his private
email so so Biden the guy who had you
know these stacks of
boxes of of secure stuff in his
garage uh apparently was just using his
regular email that was at Alias but they
were just emailing him like important
National
Secrets highly highly sensitive things
just on email now no you assume that
that means our adversaries captured that
is there much chance that you know the
best hackers in other countries can't
get into regular
email I don't know it's just amazing the
the level of
incompetence from the Biden the whole
Biden situation is just
incredible well according to
Bloomberg
um the the uh Trump Administration is
going to follow up on something that the
Biden Administration started which means
that it's a bipartisan thing um to go
after Microsoft for
antitrust now I don't know what that
includes because Microsoft is such a big
sprawling organization but there there
have always been allegations that they
were involved in some kind of anti-
competitive stuff so I don't know what
these specific allegations are but it's
notable
that the Biden Administration started it
and the Trump
Administration is going to continue it
so it does suggest that there's
something there we'll find out how much
that
matters according to the Washington
examiner there's a study on a Wisconsin
that shows that requiring voter ID does
not suppress the vote ahead of ballot
decisions now I don't know that they can
really study that but they found out
that uh when they enacted voter ID law
in Wisconsin the turnout increased by
1.5% but do you see what's wrong with
that it increased by
1.5% the real question is how much would
it have
increased uh by
itself so it's not like voter ID
increased
it and if the argument is that voter ID
would suppress it then really what you
need to know is well if it was 1.5 with
voter ID what would it have been without
voter ID now I since I'm completely in
the camp that says voter ID is required
and I don't think there's a single
person who doesn't who I don't think
there's a single person who's a legal
resident wants to vote and can't figure
out how to get an ID I just don't think
they exist so I agree with the
conclusion of the study although I don't
think they they studied it in a way that
I find
compelling but uh I agree there's no way
that voter ID is a Bad
Thing uh according to Technical
University of Munich um some people
figured out how to make AI learning a
100 times faster you've probably heard
how many times have I told you a story
like that um but this one is instead of
using their usual iterative method of
training they have some kind of
probabilistic
um scheme and they can get just as good
responses by not just doing everything
but rather
probabilistically knowing what to do to
train it so that's the idiot explanation
just know that there's something out
there that already works it's not
speculative it already works and it
increases the efficiency by 100
times now this is just one of many
stories that read that had that same
quality it's like oh there's a new chip
there's a new deep seek deep seek is one
of those that's you know a whole
different way to train cheaper so I've
got a feeling that the cost of getting
into the AI business is going to drop to
the point
where I don't even know if the big the
big companies can keep any kind of
Advantage at some
point um especially if you have AIS that
are being trained on other AIS
I I feel like it's going to be hard for
the biggest AI companies to keep a moat
to keep other people from just knocking
him off so we'll see
um there's a story I wasn't going to get
into about a specific police
chief who happened to be the chief of
police in Las Vegas at the same time
Steven Paddock did that mass shooting of
the Music Festival but then he left that
job and he went to Maui where he became
the police chief during the Lina
fire now how could anybody be that
unlucky you know imagine being the
police chief in Las Vegas you're
thinking ah Las Vegas seems like a
pretty good place to be a police chief
and then you have the biggest mass
shooting and of course he was blamed for
you know not investigating it enough and
then he goes to Maui he's thinking to
himself nothing ever happens in Maui I
mean it's basically no crime so and then
there's a Lina fire and I guess he got
some criticism for that but now he's
been named as a codefendant in a lawsuit
re that involves uh sha Diddy
combes how could one person get in that
much trouble how's it even possible that
one person could go from the Las Vegas
shooting to the behind of fire to
getting in trouble with it with
Diddy and and by the way I don't I don't
have a criticism of this police chief it
could be just really bad luck you know
it could be that the Diddy thing is just
an association of an association and
doesn't mean anything it could be that
the Las Vegas and Lina thing everybody's
criticizing everybody so maybe it wasn't
that bad but uh that's a heck of a lot
of trouble for one person to be
into well yeah I see it in the comments
somebody saying he's corrupt but really
to me that just looks like horrible luck
you know whether or not he did a good
job in those cases I'm I can't judge but
that looks like really bad luck anyway
we'll we'll keep a uh innocent till
proven guilty opinion on
that all
right that ladies and gentlemen is all I
have today
uh I guess we'll watch the tariffs
tariffs will be on the tariffs will be
off but I'm uh quite convinced that what
Trump is doing with tariffs is looking
better and better and I feel like I also
understand it now and by understanding
it um I said this yesterday I think what
he's doing is making sure that other
countries treat it like it's their top
priority to figure out how to deal with
us in terms of trade and if that's the
only thing the tariffs do is scare the
beesus out of other countries and they
say all right all right let's talk about
you know our whole tariff
situation that's a big
win because the way it looks now this
might be just the American spin on
things but the way it looks is that we
have been screwed by other
countries uh for a long
time and if we sat down and said all
right look at all the things you're
doing to us and look at the few things
we're doing to you this is totally
imbalanced I don't think that any
country wanted to have that conversation
because I thought they you know it feels
like they all thought they were getting
away with a little bit of something and
if Trump only just shines this giant
light on the imbalance and of the
tariffs it seems to me there's a good
good
chance that he'll be able to negotiate
better deals than we have and that would
be amazing for our economy just amazing
the other thing is you know I mentioned
earlier that lutnick talked about a um
sort of a fee just to join the club to
sell to
America maybe that's the faster way to
do it instead of negotiating every
single tariff maybe that's just too much
work and there's lots of complexity
there you just say here's a deal if you
want to be in our Market this is what
you're going to pay per
year maybe
so I like the fact he's putting all
those ideas out there it's all
negotiable but if the one thing that
Trump did was make sure that the other
countries dropped their other priorities
and said uh oh uh oh we can't really go
a month with a 50% or a 200% tariff on a
key industry so we're going to need to
deal with this right away that's all he
needs all he needs is I want your
complete
attention what is it that I've taught
you about
persuasion do you remember the first
rule of
persuasion it's the first rule it's the
big one you got to get their
attention it's by far the most important
one because if you don't get somebody's
attention it doesn't matter if you're
repeating and doing all the right things
they're just not paying attention so
Trump took this situation where really
nobody was paying attention and made
everybody pay attention so if you want
to score it on
persuasion phase one get their attention
100%
A+ A+ now that doesn't mean everything's
going to work
out but if you were get it just going to
score phase one 100% success everybody's
paying attention everybody put it at
their top priority everybody's
responding they're of course putting up
a fight but boy are they pay paying
attention
so that's a
A+ and I think that's why Goldman Sachs
and uh you know other big business
people are are giving Trump some room to
operate because I think they completely
understand this first you get their
attention and then we'll see what
happens so that's all I got today I'll
talk to the locals people privately for
the rest of you YouTube and Rumble and X
I'll see you tomorrow same time same
place thanks for
joining all
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