Coffee With Scott Adams — Knowledge Archive July 1, 2026
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Episodes Episode #1710

Episode 1710 Scott Adams - Start Your Week Off Right With The Simultaneous Sip & Weird Headline Views

Episode #1710 Apr 11, 2022 47:11 20,625 views

Find my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com Content: ----------- - Twitter suspensions for free speech - Elon Musk declines joining Twitter board - Non-Binary as a catchall - Ukraine War musings - Inguinal hernia surgery resistors ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.

Opening General Commentary

Good morning everybody, and I am delighted to see all of you, especially you and you and you. You know who you are. And while you're here, how would you like to get your dopamine just raging? That's why we're here. A little bit of oxytocin, a little bit, but we'll jack up your dopamine a good 20 per…

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SimultaneousSip Energy & Mood Management

g for the day. And all you need is a copper mug, glass or tankard, chalice, stein, decanter, carafe, flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine hit of the day. It's the thing that makes everything be…

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MainContent Persuasion

neous sip. But it happens now. Go. Here's your persuasion tip of the day. If you didn't already know this, when you associate something that people like, a pleasure that's a known pleasure, with some other thought or stimulation, you can take some of the goodness from the thing you like and it gets…

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NewsReaction Media & Fake News

r was this big event and they would play the same song before each game and you'd be so charged up in a variety of ways, if you know what I mean, because it was college after all, and it would be so fun to be there that that song, even if I hear it today years later, you get just an immediate dopami…

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QandA General Commentary

ter simply had a policy of, instead of banning people, now remember you're going to compare it to banning people and not necessarily for every person who says everything that's wrong but just people who are bannable in that bannable range, would you be okay with the bannable part simply connecting t…

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MainContent Moist Robot Framework

I know you are right. Well let me ask you this. How many of you are like really interested in this Florida law story? Is it interesting to you? I see mostly not. Okay, well I see yeses. Maybe it depends if you have kids who are in that relevant age group. All right, so it's a mixture but probably mo…

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Tangent General Commentary

il out and not condemn a pedophile? Okay, I condemn pedophiles totally. You okay with that? Now here's the part where I get banned from all social media if not society itself. I also don't believe in free will. Sorry. So you have to condemn people who are doing things that are bad for society and e…

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NewsReaction AI & Technology

people agree with that. But on a philosophical level I kind of see everybody as equal. Sorry, not legally and not practically. In a practical sense you just can't treat everybody the same. Yeah, you have to treat certain behaviors completely differently than other behaviors of course. But when I wal…

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MainContent Career & Life Strategy

sage they put out. Here's another funny tweet by First Words on Twitter at unscriptedmike. He said, "Elon Musk recently built the largest factory in the world in Texas, of course just launched the first all-private rocket to the International Space Station and will soon restore free speech to Twitt…

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MainContent Health & Biohacking

ately less than two minutes, very short, and it's basically the shortest writing lesson in the world with the most impact. So it was created to be exactly that, the shortest writing with the most impact. So just Google if you want to see that, "the day you became a better writer" and with my name it…

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MainContent Persuasion

st by mentioning it. Yeah, maybe three of you will Google it but the three of you who Google it and read it are actually gonna have different outcomes. It's that powerful. All right. There's some more information about the importance of ventilation and I would still love to know this question. If w…

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Tangent Politics as Persuasion

heterosexual, we can't have one of those in office. You know back in cowboy days or whatever the hell it was. I mean it feels like it was a Lincoln kind of era thing but can somebody tell me did that really happen? Yeah so I don't know if that really happened but it tells the story really well. So…

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MainContent Confirmation Bias

ter was very good. Again we're separating whether you like the politics of it from just the persuasion element of it if we could, right? So what could the LGBTQ and extra letters do to be more like friendlier sounding so they immediately get a positive vibe before people think about the politics? A…

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MainContent Politics as Persuasion

mation bias is a hundred percent on the mainstream media side who has now brainwashed the rest of you into believing that something like a Russian victory is unfolding when the news they actually report, I just watched General Petraeus explain the situation and the withdrawal from Kiev, if you just…

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NewsReaction General Commentary

important. And now they have an alleged leader who can't attend in a practical way because he won't be invited or it might be too risky to leave the country. So in a real sense they've already lost their leader. I mean it's like he's a military commander now but the country doesn't have a political…

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Closing General Commentary

ared myself for no reason. I probably will end up I imagine someday getting it repaired but it won't be this summer so I'm not going to worry about it. Yes oh you have one mesh you got to do the other side. Yeah maybe I'll have to. Who knows. And that's all for now. Hope you had a great time and I'…

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Good morning everybody, and I am delighted to see all of you, especially you and you and you. You know who you are. And while you're here, how would you like to get your dopamine just raging? That's why we're here. A little bit of oxytocin, a little bit, but we'll jack up your dopamine a good 20 percent, get you going for the day. And all you need is a copper mug, glass or tankard, chalice, stein, decanter, carafe, flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine hit of the day. It's the thing that makes everything better. It's called a simultaneous sip. But it happens now. Go.

Here's your persuasion tip of the day. If you didn't already know this, when you associate something that people like, a pleasure that's a known pleasure, with some other thought or stimulation, you can take some of the goodness from the thing you like and it gets transferred over to the thing you associate with, as long as it's sort of a fresh thing that people haven't thought too much about and don't have too much baggage with. And you can use that to extend people's enjoyment from things they already enjoy to entirely new things. How cool is that? You can actually make people enjoy things that they never considered enjoying before just by association. It happens with songs. Your song that reminds you of something. Still to this day when I hear, there's a song by Traffic, I can't remember which one it is, but it was played before all college soccer games at my alma mater, Hartwick College, which one of the years I was there was the number one soccer power in the country, which is weird because it was a tiny little school but it won the whole country one year that I was there. And so the soccer was this big event and they would play the same song before each game and you'd be so charged up in a variety of ways, if you know what I mean, because it was college after all, and it would be so fun to be there that that song, even if I hear it today years later, you get just an immediate dopamine hit. So use that. Use that technique to extend the things you like.

Rasmussen had a poll asking people, is illegal immigration getting worse? So Rasmussen asked that poll and 55 percent said yes, illegal immigration is getting worse. 27 percent said no, no, no, no, no, it's not getting worse. 27. 27. That's about a quarter of the people who responded. About a quarter. If you were to round it off it's roughly 25, which means absolutely nothing to the people who have never seen this live stream before. But if you've been here before you know how funny this is right now because 25 is roughly the number of people who get every poll question wrong. It doesn't matter how easy the question is. Question is, is oxygen good for humans? 64 percent said yes, 26 percent said no. No, people don't need oxygen. Oh no.

Meanwhile in censorship news, Juanita Broderick had her account locked on Twitter for what they say is misinformation about COVID. Here is what she tweeted and you be the judge. Is this misinformation or fact? She tweeted, "When will this vaccine crap be over? Big Pharma has profited enough for the next hundred years. Stop pushing vaccines that don't work." And oh, here comes the bad part: "Alter DNA." She posted on Saturday, "Alter DNA. Alert, alert, alert." Censorship code of silence. Juanita has been neutralized. Has been neutralized.

Now to be clear, I don't think the vaccinations alter your DNA. I don't think that's true. But separately, was it a good idea for her to be censored? That's really the question. Yeah, you could argue whether she's right or wrong I suppose, and I don't think she's right. I don't think so. But how would I know really? What exactly would be my qualifications for answering that question? I don't know. Seems like the news seems pretty convinced it's not altering your DNA. But how would I know really? So I wonder if there isn't a better way to handle something like this. For example, if the altering the DNA part was the offending part, could you alter the Twitter interface to simply flag the part that mainstream experts disagree with? Would that be offensive to you? Would you consider that a violation of free speech if Twitter simply had a policy of, instead of banning people, now remember you're going to compare it to banning people and not necessarily for every person who says everything that's wrong but just people who are bannable in that bannable range, would you be okay with the bannable part simply connecting to a source? Maybe not a fact checker. No, no, because we don't trust the fact checkers, right? But I feel like there's a better way to handle it.

In other censorship news, Jack Posobiec apparently got locked out of his Twitter account for a while but he seems to be back. And correct me if I'm wrong, is that because he called Disney groomers because of their opposition to the new law about what to teach young kids about sexuality or sexual preference or something? I don't know. I just can't get interested in the story. I hate it.

I know you are right. Well let me ask you this. How many of you are like really interested in this Florida law story? Is it interesting to you? I see mostly not. Okay, well I see yeses. Maybe it depends if you have kids who are in that relevant age group. All right, so it's a mixture but probably more no's than yeses. Although I suppose I could have gotten this on any topic, right? It's only the fascinating way I cover it that makes it so salient.

Yeah, I feel there isn't just, there's just not enough to say about it. Like we know what some people want. We know what the criticism is. They're going to fight it out. I don't know. Just doesn't seem like there's anything there that makes it worthy for yet another person to be talking about it. Certainly it matters to the people involved so I don't want to minimize it. Let me not minimize the importance to the people involved. It's certainly important to the people who care about such things and maybe they should. But there isn't much depth to the story is what I'm saying.

Somebody says one thing Scott will never do, and that is condemn a pedophile. Would anybody like to see me do that? It's a challenge. I've been challenged. Will I condemn a pedophile? Are you wondering if I'm gonna bail out and not condemn a pedophile? Okay, I condemn pedophiles totally. You okay with that?

Now here's the part where I get banned from all social media if not society itself. I also don't believe in free will. Sorry. So you have to condemn people who are doing things that are bad for society and especially bad for kids so that there's no hesitation about what's right for society. Yeah, yeah, you gotta condemn the hell out of anybody who's hurting anybody. Most people agree with that. But on a philosophical level I kind of see everybody as equal. Sorry, not legally and not practically. In a practical sense you just can't treat everybody the same. Yeah, you have to treat certain behaviors completely differently than other behaviors of course. But when I walk into a room and see a bunch of miscreants and ne'er-do-wells and non-standard people, basically a pirate ship of humanity, I don't walk into that room and say well you suck, you suck, you're bad, you're unworthy, that one I like, that one I like. I don't do that. I walk in and I like the whole pirate ship. I like the whole pirate ship. I have to condemn some of them for behaviors but I don't devalue people because I don't see free will the same way other people do. So certainly you can change people's behavior maybe by condemning certain parts. Maybe it reduces who does what. But I don't believe in, oh judge not. Thank you. Thank you. If you'd like to put it into Christian terms and let me invite you to do that. I'm not a believer but I like the framework. It's a handy framework. So yeah, who am I to judge? That would be the better way to say it. I don't put myself in the role of a judge but certainly you have to condemn certain behaviors for practical reasons.

All right. Here's my new red line. I was insulted on Twitter today and while I think you should use the blocking judiciously, somebody went a little too far today and I just want to run it by you because you're my advisors. So as my advisors, did I go too far or is this reasonable? I blocked somebody today who accused me in public, and people are going to see this right because it's like a permanent record, he actually accused me in public of believing the news. Well I mean I blocked that. Don't do that if you want to ever ever ever see me again. I will be so gone.

All right. So the big interesting news is that Elon Musk has declined the offer to have a board seat on Twitter. Isn't that interesting? Didn't we think that his play was to get on the board and that he'd have some influence? Well it turns out we all learn something today or you're about to learn it. Being on the board limits your options. Did you know that? It limits your options if you're Elon Musk. It probably doesn't limit your options if you're just a board member like if you were important enough to be on the board but maybe other people haven't heard your name before. Well in that case being on the board probably does give you more influence over Twitter. But if you're Elon Musk all it does is limit you because everybody's going to listen to what you say, right? That's the key. Everyone's going to listen to what you say. So once you have that, being on the board just gives you limitations. It's a limit to what you can say about the company I'm pretty sure. I think there's some limits about how you can trash the company if you're on the board and I think there's a limit to how much stock you can own. Somebody said 15 percent. So why would he put up with limits when there's no upside? And I think to myself I don't know if there's another person in the world who would have played it this way and it's right. I don't know anybody else who would have played it exactly like this, to earn a board seat and then turn it down because it was limiting. Nobody else would do that even if they were in this position. I feel like they wouldn't have done that. He consistently finds the thing that you're not supposed to do and then makes it work and that's why it's so fun to watch.

Now he continues to make marketing departments completely irrelevant wherever he has ownership of a company because he just is so newsworthy that really has anybody not heard of Twitter? Have you not heard that there might be some changes coming? I think you probably have heard it but the marketing department didn't get it done. Musk did.

So I saw a tweet by a user named Tank, that's what he calls himself on Twitter. He tweets, he goes, let me break this down for you. Elon becomes largest shareholder for free speech. Elon was told to play nice and not speak freely. In other words the entire reason he was doing it was to have, you know, try to get free speech for himself and others and joining the board would actually limit his free speech, you know, in a commercial way not in a government way.

So in a separate but related story there's a Twitter engineering manager. Now what I don't know is how important a Twitter engineering manager is. Are there lots of them because there are lots of subgroups so they all need a little manager or is this somebody who manages all the engineers? I don't know. It'd be a pretty big difference. But somebody who is a Twitter engineering manager had been tweeting some negative stuff about Elon being on the board and really hated it and was digging up some old Elon Musk tweets to embarrass him. And I think this is telling you everything isn't it? It feels like that's everything. I feel like knowing that there's an engineering manager in Twitter that really really doesn't like whatever it is that Elon Musk thinks he's going to do, I feel like now you know everything don't you? Now it's only one person so you know maybe I'm overgeneralizing here but that's one person who operated with impunity in the sense that that one person was not shy about putting out the message they put out.

Here's another funny tweet by First Words on Twitter at unscriptedmike. He said, "Elon Musk recently built the largest factory in the world in Texas, of course just launched the first all-private rocket to the International Space Station and will soon restore free speech to Twitter, the 21st century town square. Meanwhile Biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time." And the reason the funny thing about this tweet is what makes it work is the last three unnecessary words. So here's a little tip for you. Generally speaking you want to remove unnecessary words from your communication because they're unnecessary and they just get in the way. But an exception is humor where sometimes the unnecessary words, I don't know exactly why they work so it's just something you have to A-B test in your head. If I add these unnecessary words is it better or worse? And I don't know why this is better but let me read the sentence again and see how important "the whole time" is even though it's unnecessary. Watch: "Meanwhile Biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time." The whole time. I don't know. That's what makes the tweet right.

By the way, how often have you seen my blog post on "How to Be the Day You Became a Better Writer"? How many of you have seen that? Because it's going around again. It's been going around I think it gets passed around at least every month or so for years. If you haven't seen it the reason it gets passed around every month or so for years is that when people read it, and it takes approximately less than two minutes, very short, and it's basically the shortest writing lesson in the world with the most impact. So it was created to be exactly that, the shortest writing with the most impact. So just Google if you want to see that, "the day you became a better writer" and with my name it'll pop right up. It's all over the place now.

This is why I like this live stream because some of you know what just happened right? Some of you know what just happened and some of you don't but you're going to find out. What just happened was the people who are familiar with that little piece I just recommended are actually aware that it actually fundamentally gave them a superpower, like turned them from mediocre writers or good-ish writers into good writers in two minutes. In two minutes it really does that. And that's why I put these little two-to-four-minute lessons on the Locals subscription platform because you can actually fundamentally change somebody's effectiveness forever in two to four minutes. You just have to say the right stuff. So the people who know that know that I just changed a whole bunch of lives just by mentioning it. Yeah, maybe three of you will Google it but the three of you who Google it and read it are actually gonna have different outcomes. It's that powerful.

All right. There's some more information about the importance of ventilation and I would still love to know this question. If we know that almost nobody gets COVID outdoors and we know that for sure, right? Has anybody ever gotten COVID in a well-ventilated place? And how well ventilated does it need to be? Because you know I've been talking during the pandemic, what if you just turn on your fans? What if you just have fans on? Is that good enough? And we still don't know the answer to that. We might have had a complete solution to the pandemic and overlooked it because it was too ordinary, which is make sure there's a fan in every room. Now the experts say you got to have a window open but I think that's where they go wrong because if the window's open it's going to be too cold, too hot. Then there's a reason that people close windows, right? Bugs. So I really really really wonder if just moving the air is enough to distribute the plumes and we might have had a solution the whole time. We might have.

All right. Here's my solution to the whole LGBTQ, and I think they've added some numbers or letters, maybe some numbers too and some letters recently. And this is a persuasion recommendation. Now I know many of you are on the let's say the social warrior side of stop making a big fuss and giving all these rights to those LGBTQ activists and stuff like that. This isn't going to be that. This is actually going to be legitimate advice for how the people who would define themselves in that community could get maybe better results. Okay, and this is in the form of a persuasion lesson. I'll just apply it to something that's in the news. Every time the LGBTQ adds a new designation or a new flavor I think they get further from their objective. And what I would do is advise them to take a tip from what the gay activists did in the earlier days of gay rights. Do you remember when gay was called homosexual? And homosexual sounds almost like a disease if you're not well educated, right? It just sounds like, wait that word is way too big. There's a famous story and maybe somebody can tell me if this is real or it's just one of those stories you heard, that in the early days of the United States, I don't know exactly what year, somebody was running for election and won the election in part by labeling his opponent a, I think it was a flagrant heterosexual. And people were so undereducated that when they heard that they're like whoa, a flagrant heterosexual, we can't have one of those in office. You know back in cowboy days or whatever the hell it was. I mean it feels like it was a Lincoln kind of era thing but can somebody tell me did that really happen? Yeah so I don't know if that really happened but it tells the story really well.

So here's the thing. When the gay rights people changed from homosexual and queer, although queer they sort of did the n-word thing and owned it which was also a good technique, but gay? Who doesn't want to be gay? I mean in the sense that it sounds happy, right? So just labeling it with a word that people universally embrace before they think about it was kind of sort of awesome in terms of persuasion. It's just one of the greatest persuasion plays of all times in my opinion. Just one of the best. Although Black Lives Matter was very good. Again we're separating whether you like the politics of it from just the persuasion element of it if we could, right?

So what could the LGBTQ and extra letters do to be more like friendlier sounding so they immediately get a positive vibe before people think about the politics? And here's what I would suggest: non-binary. Now correct me if I'm wrong but non-binary the way it's currently used is more limited than including all of LGBTQ. Right? It doesn't matter for my purposes. I'm saying to you to rebrand non-binary as the only thing that captures everything that's not binary. Here's why. People like being non-binary. If you say you fit into one or two categories I say yeah damn it I don't know if that sounds so good for me. It feels like I'm a little bit limited in my thinking doesn't it? Even if you're completely hetero or you're completely, you know if you're completely hetero you're still going to say yeah I'm completely hetero but I don't know I'd like to think that at least I had some flexibility you know. And I also wonder if there aren't lots of people who would brand themselves hetero who in their private thoughts are thinking well I'm hetero-ish you know what I mean. Maybe the porn they look at isn't exactly matching their hetero you know what I mean. There must be plenty of people who say yeah for public consumption I'm hetero but you know privately I'm a little bit non-binary. Just a little bit.

And I see a lot of pushback which is why I'm doing this. I mean if it were not provocative would I do it really? If I were not provocative that's what makes this question fun. So with all respect to the LGBTQ community, which some of my favorite people are members of, I think if you just said non-binary maybe you'd get further. Or even something better if there's a word like gay that just puts a positive spin on it from the start and then you think about the politics. That's all. Just come up with a better label than a bunch of alphabet letters.

All right. Have you noticed that in our minds at least there are certain patterns that keep repeating and one of the reasons that movies and books and TV shows work is that people like certain patterns of things. Like they like stories of good versus evil. They like stories of redemption, right? There's a limited set of what we imagine are the stories that we want to see. And I'm fascinated when I see parallels. For example as I tweeted today, if you're familiar with the Star Trek universe this will work better if you have some familiarity with that universe. But if NATO is the Federation, and again everybody gets to say their side is the good guys I get it I get it right. If you're in Russia NATO doesn't look like the Federation but from our point of view, right, this is just a subjective point of view. If NATO was the Federation would Russia be the Klingons and would China be the Romulans or would they be the Ferengi or the Borg? They're a little bit the Borg because they're trying to assimilate the Uyghurs but they're a little bit the Ferengi because they're commerce first. And the Russians seem like the Klingons because it feels like the honor of their empire is what matters more than life itself. Yeah the Ferengi are capitalists but they're merchants, right?

So this all brings me to the most important question which is when we look at this whole Russia-Ukraine war what would Shatner do? And until we've heard that I don't think we understand the whole situation. But what would Captain Kirk do? I was going to ask him but his DMs are closed.

All right. Here's my most provocative take today. You're gonna hate this one. In my opinion it looks like Russia already lost the war but the news is not saying that. Like I'm observing it in what seems to me, and I'll get to my cognitive bias and my confirmation bias. That's the point. We're going to that so you don't need to shout that you disagree with me yet because your disagreement is the point of this, right? I'm watching the news and you're watching the news but why do I see that Russia already lost but the news isn't reporting it? So there are two possibilities here which are kind of cool. Number one I'm suffering from a confirmation bias because I somewhat uniquely among experts and probably most of you said that Russia would actually be running into a buzzsaw and it wouldn't be easy and that the modern technology that the Ukrainian army was likely to have access to because of their NATO and American sponsorship, they were likely to surprise Russia with an unusually aggressive and effective tech-led response. I said their tanks would be in trouble, that drones would be part of it, and so far 100 percent of that seems true, right? But would you say that my, so I had the incorrect prediction, 100 percent incorrect, that Russia knew what I knew which is this doesn't look easy but I guess they thought it was. Maybe they had bad information so they went ahead and invaded. So that part I'm 100 percent wrong just so you can hear me say when I'm wrong. But it looks to me like the second part of that, that Russia would be surprised, happened and then it's already happened because it doesn't look like they really have a good shot at taking over the country in terms of owning the capital Kyiv. And now we see them doing something that looks, again just to me it looks this way not to you, I'm not suggesting you see it this way, I'm saying that my confirmation bias which makes me want to be right, see I want to be right that Ukraine was more able to defend itself than others thought, so I'm interpreting the situation to make myself right and even though I'm aware of it I can't unsee it. Isn't that weird? Like I'm completely aware that I'm the only one seeing this but there's a reason I'm the only one seeing it. Either, and here's the fun part, either you're all right and I'm experiencing confirmation bias. Completely possible. I have no way to know that that's not true and it's actually quite likely. I put it in the solidly very likely category. The other possibility is that most of you get your opinions from the news. Most people do. They get their opinions from the news. It's very rare to have somebody who has an opinion that disagrees with either the left or the right leaning news. It's very very odd, unusual. So you get your opinions largely from the news and the news told you with all its experts that Ukraine was going to be conquered by Russia. Well okay not in two days. Well it might take him a little longer but suddenly Russia has withdrawn from the entire north to try to salvage whatever it can. It doesn't even look like it's going to take Odessa. I mean maybe it will but at the moment it looks like it got stopped from taking Odessa too in the port. So am I experiencing cognitive dissonance or is the entire mainstream media including the left and the right, because remember both the left and the right thought it was going to be an easy victory for Russia and they were so wrong it looks to me they were so wrong that they can't tell you that they were wrong and that the cognitive dissonance and the confirmation bias is a hundred percent on the mainstream media side who has now brainwashed the rest of you into believing that something like a Russian victory is unfolding when the news they actually report, I just watched General Petraeus explain the situation and the withdrawal from Kiev, if you just look at what he's reporting it really looks like Russia already lost. But you tell me. Let's take a vote. Tell me am I experiencing confirmation bias and Russia will just roll on to victory? Yes or no? The correct, there's only one correct answer. The correct answer I just saw only one person said it. The correct answer is unknown.

All right. You just separated yourselves into the higher level of awareness and lower level. Here's what I'm not going to tell you, that I'm right about this. I can't tell you that I'm right. I can only tell you what it feels like because if you're experiencing cognitive dissonance or confirmation bias you're the one who doesn't know. You're the one who doesn't know. So if it's me I don't know. And even if you tell me, even if every one of you told me I'm experiencing it I'd still say and I don't think so. I don't think so. I got reasons. I got good reasons. One person said unknown when I asked the question who has cognitive dissonance. The person who said unknown has the best level of awareness probably in the conversation. The moment you realize that cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias can just as easily affect you that's when you see the machinery. That's when you see reality just, it opens its cover. But you have to accept that it's happening to you. If you believe it only happens to the dumb people on the other side you'll never see the machinery and then you will be the scenery. So you can be the scenery or you can see the machinery. And if you think that you know who has cognitive dissonance in this situation you're scenery. If you can accept that you don't know as I do, I really don't know if I'm right. I only know what it looks like and I accept that and that allows me to see the machinery. Don't be the scenery.

All right. And we heard more about this Ukrainian volunteer drone unit. Bunch of nerds. I say that with love because I love technical people. They've modified these little hobby-sized drones and apparently they got credit for stopping the convoy. I feel like they might be getting a little more attention than maybe their actual contribution is but do you wonder if maybe there isn't still some kind of secret drones over there that we don't exactly know about? Maybe something that America or NATO has that's a little bit stealthier or a little bit faster or I don't know maybe a little more autonomous, a little more something. I don't know. And do you think that when this is over we'll learn that there was some technology in play that made a big difference that we hadn't heard of during the conflict? Maybe. I don't know. It could be just that the weaponization of drones in general is the whole story or most of it.

What do you think of the idea of calling Putin a war criminal? Let me explain how war crimes are tried. It's very complicated so try to follow along. This is how you handle the war crimes. So you've got the International Criminal Court located in The Hague and it's created by the Rome Statute but some people are members some aren't. We've got the United Nations. They could do something and then the members could all agree they would give it a patina of credibility but of course Russia wouldn't go along with it so it doesn't really matter. So you've got a whole bunch of legal remedies and legal approaches that all have the same characteristic. We don't fully understand them and they're not going to make any difference whatsoever because Putin isn't going to go to trial right and we're not going to capture him if he leaves the country are we really? I mean I don't think so. Would we if somebody could take him into custody? I don't think so. But here's what's interesting. Can Putin ever travel again except to the few places where they're friendly? I feel like that Russia no longer has a leader in any realistic way meaning that if the whole world decides you just can't even come here, you can't even touch our territory, do you really have a leader? Because you kind of want a leader who can go to the G8, the G20, you know whatever is appropriate. You feel like your leader needs to show up right? Ninety percent of success is attendance and he can't attend. Attendance is very important. And now they have an alleged leader who can't attend in a practical way because he won't be invited or it might be too risky to leave the country. So in a real sense they've already lost their leader. I mean it's like he's a military commander now but the country doesn't have a political leader because the other countries that would need to treat him like a political leader are just not going to do it because they have these credible allegations of war crimes.

Now I want to jump in here and say because every time I say something like Russia's committing war crimes somebody who's pro-Ukraine jumps in and says Scott Scott Scott why you believe in the news and the propaganda? Don't you know that the Ukrainians were shelling the Russians in the Donbass and discriminating against them? To which I say I don't really know that. No. But I don't need to know it because if you're telling me that Ukrainians have done any war crimes against Russians during this conflict or even before did some bad things, well believe it. You don't even have to show me an example. It just sounds like something people do so I'm already there. I don't even need any evidence. Yeah it's a war. There are war crimes. Both sides. Yeah both sides most of the time or all the time. All the time. All the time. If it were only sometimes that wars produced war crimes then I'd be like let's look into this. Let's look into these details. Got to find out who's doing it who isn't. But I don't believe that do you? I just think war creates war crimes because the people that you send into war are the people who are going to do some war crimes and if they didn't start that way war can turn them into that kind of people. And I think that there are legitimate tradeoffs between saving yourself and saving your prisoners and people are gonna say well I'd rather save myself frankly. Thank you. Biden droned an innocent family. Well intention always matters so yeah intention matters.

I'm tending to think that it might be a good move branding Putin as a war criminal. He's never gonna be tried unless there's some kind of revolution in Russia itself I suppose. That's possible but I don't see that happening. I think Russia will just continue as a degraded country and that's it. It'll just be a degraded country forever or at least for a long time.

All right. I don't have much else to talk about. Is there anything I missed? Did you hear the story about the 75-year-old activist who was at, what, several years ago he was out there and the police were clearing the streets and they shoved him and he fell down and hit his head. Now there was some case against the police officer and the police officer has been completely cleared apparently. If you stand in front of the police and try to stop their progress they can push you out of the way. Turns out the police can push people out of the way if they're trying to stop the police from doing their job. Now I remember seeing that when it originally happened and people called me a ghoul for thinking I didn't see a crime there. I don't know if anybody remembers that. I had a pretty small audience at the time but I remember looking at it and thinking well what do you think happens when you stand in front of a police action? How do you imagine that goes? Was there a positive way that was going to turn out? I don't know. Now of course the fact that falling down and being pushed out of the way actually caused an injury that's not funny but I don't think it was the point of why he was pushed. I don't think they were trying to hurt him. I think they were trying to get him out of the way and I don't think that it was obvious that that was gonna be as bad as it was.

All right. The Hunter Biden case is heating up or is it? Or is it? Yeah he was a local provocateur. Is there a new troll who's not doing a good job over here on YouTube? I hate it when the new guy, he's not really trained on where my hot buttons are yet. He's just flailing. Can somebody train the new guy? By now everybody must know my hot buttons. I'm sure you can find them. Can't be that hard.

Am I still on prisoner island? I am not. I am not. And not that I won't go back. Prisoner island recalls us on a regular basis. You do get dropped on prisoner island every now and then. So let me tell you what one of my big issues was that apparently isn't a big issue. So I thought I had a hernia. It's a little inguinal hernia or something and I thought that would require surgery and probably really soon and it would ruin my whole summer and I really really needed a non-pandemic summer. I mean most of you do but I really really needed it. And I went to the doctor and the doctor said, and this will surprise you, it turns out that googling your symptoms is just as good as a doctor. Don't listen to anybody who tells you it doesn't. So I basically went in and said doctor I think I have an inguinal hernia and the doctor says let me see and it took the doctor like three seconds to say oh yeah that's one. And then I said all right what do I do and the doctor said well you know there's one group, listen to this this will dovetail into the actual live stream content that I do. It turns out that there was a study of one group of patients that always refused hernia surgery. Just one group. What do you think that group was? Who was the group who refused hernia surgery even when they had a hernia? Somebody says the Amish. That wasn't where I was going. And the answer is surgeons. Are we done here? Yeah the group least likely to get hernia surgery to fix it as opposed to just living with it are surgeons. And that's what my doctor told me. And so the new thinking is that you might be better off living with it unless it worsens. Right? There's some point at which surgery is necessary but mine really doesn't have any pain and you can't really see it so there's nothing visual. There's no pain. It just is something I know exists. I'll work around it and so I'll have a good summer. So I was sort of on prisoner island and thought I'd stay there but I just wasn't current with the best thinking on it and so I scared myself for no reason. I probably will end up I imagine someday getting it repaired but it won't be this summer so I'm not going to worry about it. Yes oh you have one mesh you got to do the other side. Yeah maybe I'll have to. Who knows.

And that's all for now. Hope you had a great time and I'll talk to you later.

good morning everybody and i am delighted to see all of you especially you and you and you you know who you are and uh while you're here how would you like to get your dopamine just just raging that's why we're here and a little bit of oxytocin a little bit but we'll we'll jack up your dopamine a good 20 percent get you going for the day and all you need is a copper auger glass on tanker chelsea stein the canting car flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure it's the dopamine day of the day it's the thing that makes everything better it's called a simultaneous sep but it happens now go here's your persuasion tip of the day if you didn't already know this when you associate something that people like a pleasure that's a known pleasure with some other thought or stimulation you can take some of the uh goodness from the thing you like and it gets transferred over to the thing you associate with as long as it's sort of a fresh thing that people haven't thought too much about and have too much baggage with and you can use that to extend people's enjoyment from things they already enjoy to entirely new things how cool is that you can actually make people enjoy things that they never considered enjoying before just by association it happens with songs your song that reminds you of something uh still to this day when i hear uh there's a song by traffic uh the i can't remember which one it is but it was played before all uh college soccer games at my alma mater hartwick college which one of the years i was there was the number one soccer power in the country which is weird because it was a tiny little school but it won the the one the whole country one year that i was there and so the soccer was this big event and they would play the same song before each uh game and you'd be so charged up in a variety of ways if you know what i mean because it was college after all and it would be so fun to be there that that song even if i hear it today years later you get just an immediate dopamine hit so use that use that technique to extend the things you like rasmussen had a poll asking people is it illegal is illegal immigration getting worse uh so rasmussen asked that poll and 55 said yes illegal immigration is getting worse 27 said no oh no no no no no it's not getting worse 27 27 that's about a that's about a quarter of the people who responded about a quarter quarters well if you were to round it off it's roughly 25 which means absolutely nothing to the people who have never seen this live stream before but if you've been here before you know how funny this is right now because 25 is roughly the number of people who get every poll question wrong it doesn't matter how easy the question is uh question is oxygen good for humans 64 said yes 26 said no no people don't need oxygen oh oh no well uh meanwhile in censorship news juanita broderick had her account locked on twitter for for what they say is uh misinformation about covet here is what she tweeted and you be the judge is this misinformation or fact uh she tweeted when will this vaccine crap be over big farmer has big pharma has profited enough for the next hundred years stop pushing vaccines that don't work and oh here comes the here comes the bad part alter dna she posted on saturday alter dna cannot say alter dna alert alert alert censorship code of silence juanita has been neutralized has been neutralized now to be clear i don't think the vaccinations alter your dna i don't think that's true but separately was it a good idea for her to be censored that's really the question yeah you could you could argue whether she's right or wrong i suppose and i don't think she's right i don't think so but how would i know really what what exactly would be my qualifications for answering that question i don't know seems like the news seems pretty convinced it's not altering your dna but how would how would i know really so i wonder if there isn't a better way to handle something like this for example if the altering the dna part was the offending part could you alter the twitter interface to simply flag the part that mainstream experts disagree with would that be offensive to you would you consider that a violation of free speech if twitter simply had a policy of instead of banning people now remember you're going to compare it to banning people and not necessarily for every person who says everything that's wrong but just people who are bannable in that bannable range would you be okay with these the bandable part simply connecting to a source maybe not a fact checker no no because we don't trust the fact checkers right but i feel like there's a better way to handle it um in other censorship news uh jack bassamek apparently got locked out of his twitter account for a while but he seems to be back and correct me if i'm wrong is that because he called disney groomers because of their what is it the opposition to the new law about what what to teach young kids about sexuality or sexual preference or something i don't know i just can't get interested in the story i hate it i know you are right well let me ask you let me ask you this how many of you are like really interested in this florida law story is it interesting to you i see mostly not okay well i see i see yeses maybe it depends if you have kids who are in that relevant age group all right so it's a mixture but probably more no's and yes's although i suppose i could have gotten this on any topic right it's only the fascinating way i cover it that makes it so so salient um yeah i feel there isn't just there's just not enough to say about it like we know what some people want we know what the criticism is they're going to fight it out i don't know just doesn't seem like there's anything there anything there that makes it worthy for yet another person to be talking about it certainly it matters to the people involved so i don't want to minimize let me not minimize the importance to the people involved it's certainly important to the people who care about such things and maybe they should but there isn't much depth to the story is what i'm saying somebody says one thing scott will never do and that is condemn a pedophile would anybody like me to see me do that it's a challenge i've been challenged will i condemn a pedophile are you wondering if i'm gonna bail out and not condem a pedophile okay i condemn pedophiles totally you okay with that now here's the part where i get banned from all social media if not society itself i also don't believe in free will sorry so you have to condemn people who are you know doing things that are bad for society and especially bad for kids so that there's no there's no hesitation about what's right for society right for society yeah yeah you gotta condemn the hell out of anybody who's hurting anybody most people agree with that but on a philosophical level i kind of see everybody as equal sorry not legally and not practically in a practical sense you just can't treat everybody the same yeah you have to treat certain behaviors completely differently than other behaviors of course but when i walk into a room and see a bunch of miscreants and nerdwells and non-standard people basically a pirate ship of humanity i don't walk into that room and say well you suck you suck uh you're an you're bad uh you're unworthy uh that one i like that one i like i don't do that i walk in and i like the whole pirate ship i like the whole pirate ship i have to condemn some of them for behaviors but i don't devalue people because i don't see free will the same way other people do so certainly you can change people's behavior maybe by condemning certain parts maybe it reduces who does what but i don't believe in oh judge not thank you thank you if you'd like to put it into christian terms and and let me invite you to do that i'm not a believer but i like i like the framework it's a handy framework so yeah who am i to judge that that would be the better way to say i don't put myself in the role of a judge but certainly you have to condemn certain behaviors for practical reasons all right um here's my new red line i i was insulted on twitter today and while i i think you should use the blocking judiciously somebody went a little too far today and i want i just want to run it by you you know because you're my advisors so as my advisors did i go too far or is this reasonable i blocked somebody today who accused me in public and people are going to see this right because it's like a permanent record he actually accused me in public of believing the news well i mean i blocked that um don't don't do that if you want to ever ever ever see me again i will be so gone all right um so the big interesting news is that the elon musk has declined the offer to have a board seat on twitter isn't that interesting didn't we think that his play was to get on the board and that he'd have some influence well it turns out we all learn something today or you're about to learn it being on the board limits your options did you know that it limits your options if you're elon musk it probably doesn't limit your options if you're just a board member like if you were important enough to be on the board but maybe other people haven't heard your name before well in that case being on the board probably does give you more influence over twitter but if you elon musk all it does is limit you because everybody's going to listen to what you say right that's the key everyone's going to listen to what you say so once you have that being on the board just gives you limitations it's a limit to what you can say about the company i'm pretty sure i think there's some limits about how you can trash the company if you're on the board and i think there's a limit to how much stock you can own somebody said 15 so why would he put up with limits when there's no upside and i think to myself i don't know if there's another person in the world who would have played it this way and it's right i don't know anybody else who would have played it exactly like this to earn a board seat and then turn it down because it was limiting nobody else would do that even even if they were in this position i feel like they wouldn't have done that like he he consistently finds the thing that you're not supposed to do and then makes it work and that's that's why it's so fun to watch now he continues to make marketing departments completely irrelevant wherever he has ownership of a company because he just is so newsworthy that really has anybody not heard of twitter have you not heard that there might be some changes coming i think you probably have heard it but the marketing department didn't get it done must did all right so i uh so i saw a tweet by a user named tank that's what he calls himself on twitter he tweets he goes uh let me break this down for you elon becomes largest shareholder for free speech elon was told to play nice and not speak freely in other words the entire reason he was doing it was to have you know try to get free speech for himself and others and joining the board would actually limit his free speech you know in a in a in a commercial way not not in a government way so in a separate but related story there's a twitter engineering manager now what i don't know is how important a twitter engineering manager is are there lots of them because there are lots of subgroups so they all need a little manager or is this somebody who manages all the engineers i don't know be a pretty big difference but somebody who is a twitter engineering manager uh had been tweeting some negative stuff about elon being on the board and really hated it and you know was digging up some old elon musk tweets to embarrass them and i think this is telling you everything isn't it it feels like that's everything i feel like uh knowing that there's a engineering manager in twitter that really really doesn't like whatever it is that elon musk thinks he's going to do i feel like now you know everything don't you now it's only one person so you know maybe i'm over generalizing here but that's one person who operated with impunity in the sense that that one person was you know not shy about putting out the message he put out i shouldn't say he because i don't know the pronoun but uh let's say they put out all right um here's another funny tweet by first words on twitter at uh unscripted mike says this he said elon musk recently built the largest factory in the world in texas of course just launched the first all private rocket to the international space station and will soon restore free speech to twitter the 21st century town square meanwhile biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time and the reason the the funny thing about this tweet is what makes it work is the last uh three unnecessary words so here's a little tip for you generally speaking you want to remove unnecessary words from your communication because they're unnecessary and they just get in the way but an exception is humor where sometimes the unnecessary words are i don't know exactly why they work so it's just something you have to a b test in your head if i add these unnecessary words is it better or worse and i don't know why this is better but but let me read the sentence again and see how important the whole time is even though it's unnecessary watch meanwhile biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time the whole time i don't know that's what makes the tweet right um by the way how often have you seen my blog post on how to be the day you became a better writer how many of you have seen that because it's going around again it's been going around i think he gets passed around at least every month or so for years if you haven't seen it the reason it gets passed around every month or so for years is that when people read it and it takes approximately less than two minutes very short and it's basically the shortest writing lesson in the world with the most impact so it was created to be exactly that the shortest writing with the most impact so just google if you want to see that the day you became a better writer the day you became a better writer and with my name it'll pop right up it's all over the place now this is why i like this live stream because some of you know what just happened right some of you know what just happened and some of you don't but you're going to find out what just happened was the people who are familiar with that little piece i just recommended are are actually aware that it actually fundamentally gave them a superpower like turned them from mediocre writers or good ish writers into good writers in two minutes in two minutes it really does that and that's why i put these little two to four minute lessons on locals subscription platform because you can actually fundamentally change somebody's effectiveness forever forever in two to four minutes you just have to say the right stuff so uh the the people who know that know that i just changed a whole bunch of lives just by mentioning it yeah maybe three of you will google it but the the three of you who google it and read it are actually gonna have different outcomes it's that powerful all right um there's some more information about uh the importance of ventilation and i would still love to know this question if we know that almost nobody gets covered outdoors and we know that for sure right has anybody ever gotten covent in a well ventilated place and and how well ventilated does it need to be because you know i i've been talked during the pandemic what if you just turn on your fans what if you just have fans on is that good enough and we still don't know the answer to that we might have had a complete solution to the pandemic and overlooked it because it was too ordinary which is make sure there's a fan in every room now the experts say you got to have a window open but i think that's where they go wrong because if the window's open it's going to be too cold too hot then there's a reason that people close windows right bugs so i really really really wonder if just moving the air is enough to distribute the plumes and we might have had a solution the whole time we might have all right here's my solution to the whole lgbtq and i think they've added some numbers or letters maybe some numbers too and some letters recently and this is a persuasion uh recommendation now i know many of you are on the let's say the the social warrior side of uh stop making a big fuss and giving all these rights to those lgbtq activists and stuff like that this isn't going to be that this is actually going to be legitimate advice for how the people who would define themselves in that community could get maybe better results okay and this is in in the form of a persuasion lesson i'll just apply to something that's in the news every time the lgbtq adds a as a new designation or a new flavor i think they get further from their objective and and what i would do is advise them to take a take a tip from what the gay activists did in the earlier days of gay rights do you remember when gay was called homosexual and homosexual sounds almost like a disease if you're not well educated right it just sounds like wait that word is way too big there's a there's a famous story and maybe somebody can tell me if this is real or it's just one of those stories you heard that in the early days of the united states i don't know exactly what year somebody was running for election and won the election in part by labeling his opponent a i think it was a flagrant heterosexual and people were so undereducated that when they heard that they're like whoa a flagrant heterosexual we can't have one of those in office you know back in cowboy days or whatever the hell was i mean it feels like it was a a lincoln kind of a era thing but can can somebody tell me did that really happen yeah so i don't know if that really happened but it tells the story really well so here's the thing when the gay rights people changed uh you know from homosexual and queer although queer they they sort of did the n-word thing and owned it which was also a good technique but gay who doesn't want to be gay i mean in the sense that it sounds happy right so just labeling it with a word that people universally embrace before they think about it was kind of sort of awesome in terms of persuasion it's just one of the greatest persuasion plays of all times in my opinion just one of the best although black lives matter was very good again we're separating whether you like the politics of it from just the persuasion element of it if we could right so what could the lgbtq and extra letters um do to be more like friendlier sounding so they immediately get a a positive a positive vibe before people think about the politics and here's what i would suggest uh non-binary now correct me if i'm wrong but non-binary the way it's currently used is more limited than including all of lgbtq right it doesn't matter for my purposes i'm saying to you to rebrand non-binary as the only thing that captures everything that's not binary here's why people like being non-binary if you say you fit into one or two categories i say yeah damn it i oh i don't know if that sounds so good for me it feels like i'm a little bit limited in my thinking doesn't it even if you're completely hetero or you're completely you know if you're completely hetero you're still going to say yeah i'm completely hetero but i don't know i'd like to think that at least at least i had some flexibility you know and i also wonder if there aren't lots of people who would brand themselves hetero who in their private thoughts are thinking well i'm hetero ish you know what i mean maybe the porn they look at isn't exactly uh matching their hetero you know what i mean you know what i mean there must be plenty of people who say yeah for public consumption i'm i'm hetero but you know privately i'm a little bit non-binary just a little bit and i see a lot of pushback which which is why i'm doing this i mean if if it were not provocative would i do it really if i were not provocative that's what makes this question fun so with all respect to the lgbtq community which some of my favorite people are members of um i think if you just said non-binary maybe you'd get further or or even something better if there's a word like gay that just puts a positive spin on it from the start and then you think about the politics that's all just uh come up with a better label than a bunch of alphabet letters all right um have you noticed that in our minds at least there are certain patterns that keep repeating and one of the reasons that movies and books and tv shows work is that people like certain patterns of things like they like stories of good versus evil they like stories of redemption right there's a limited set of what we imagine or the stories that we want to see and i'm fascinated when i see parallels for example as i tweeted today if you if you're familiar with the um the star trek universe this this will work better if you have some familiarity with that universe but if nato is the federation and again right everybody gets to say their their side is the good guys i get it i get it right if you're in russia nato doesn't look like the federation but from our point of view right this is just a subjective point of view if nato was the federation would russia be the klingons and would china be the romulans or would they be the ferenga forengai or the borg they're a little bit the boring because they're trying to assimilate the uyghurs but they're a little bit their friend guy because they're you know commerce sort of commerce first uh and the russians seem like the klingons because it feels like the honor of their empire is what matters more than life itself yeah the friend or the frankie are capitalists but they're merchants right um so this all brings me to the most important question which is when we look at this whole russia russia-ukraine war what would uh what would shatner do and until we've heard that i don't think we understand the whole situation but what would captain kirk do i was going to ask him but i'm i i couldn't his uh dms are closed all right here's a my proof most provocative take today you're gonna hate this one um in my opinion it looks like russia already lost the war but the news is not saying that like i'm observing it in what seems to me and i'll get to my cognitive bias and my confirmation bias that's the point we're going to that so you don't need to shout that that you disagree with me yet because your disagreement is the point of this right i'm watching the news and you're watching the news but why do i see that russia already lost but the news isn't reporting it so there are two possibilities here which are kind of cool number one i'm suffering from a confirmation bias because i somewhat uniquely among experts and probably most of you said that russia would actually be uh running into a buzzsaw and it wouldn't be easy and that the modern technology that the ukrainian army was likely to have access to because their nato and american sponsorship they were likely to surprise russia with a unusually aggressive and effective tech led response i said their tanks would be in trouble that drones would be part of it and so far 100 of that seems true right but would you say that my so i had the incorrect prediction 100 incorrect that russia knew what i knew which is this doesn't look easy but i guess they thought it was maybe they had bad information so they went ahead and invaded so that part i'm 100 wrong just so you can hear me say when i'm wrong but it looks to me like the second part of that that russia would be surprised happened and then it's already happened because it doesn't look like they really have a good shot at taking over the country in terms of owning the capital kyiv and now we see them doing something that looks again again just to me it looks this way not to you i'm not i'm not suggesting you see it this way i'm saying that my confirmation bias which makes me want to be right see i want to be right that ukraine was you know more able to defend itself than others thought so i'm interpreting the situation to make myself right and even though i'm aware of it i can't unsee it isn't that weird like i'm completely aware that i'm the only one seeing this but there's a reason i'm the only one seeing it either and here's the fun part either you're all right and i'm experiencing confirmation bias completely possible i have no way to know that that's not true and it's actually quite likely i put it in the solidly very likely category the other possibility is that most of you get your opinions from the news most people do they get their opinions from the news it's very rare to have somebody who has an opinion that disagrees with either the left or the right leaning news it's very very odd unusual so you get your opinions largely from the news and the news told you with all its experts that ukraine was going to be conquered by russia well okay not in two days well it might take him a little longer but suddenly russia has withdrawn from the entire north to try to salvage whatever it can it doesn't even look like it's going to take odessa i mean maybe it will but at the moment it looks like it got stopped from taking odessa too in the port so am i experiencing cognitive dissonance or is the entire mainstream media including the left and the right because remember both the left and the right thought it was going to be an easy victory for russia and they were so wrong it looks to me they were so wrong that they can't tell you that they were wrong and that the cognitive dissonance and the confirmation bias is a hundred percent on the mainstream media side who has now brainwashed the rest of you into believing that something like a russian victory is is unfolding when the news they actually report i just watched uh general petraeus you know explain the situation and the withdrawal from kiev if you just look at what he's reporting it really looks like russia already lost but you tell me let's take a vote tell me am i am i experiencing confirmation bias and russia will just roll on to victory yes or no the correct that there's only one correct answer the correct answer i just saw only one person said it the correct answer is unknown all right you just separated yourselves into the higher level of awareness and lower level here's what i'm not going to tell you that i'm right about this i can't tell you that i'm right i can only tell you what it feels like because if you're experiencing cognitive dissonance or confirmation bias you're the one who doesn't know you're the one who doesn't know so if it's me i don't know and even if you tell me even if every one of you told me i'm experiencing it i'd still say and i don't think so i don't think so i got reasons i got good reasons one person said unknown when i asked the question who has cognitive dissonance the person who said unknown has the best level of awareness probably in the conversation the moment you realize that cognitive dissonance and and confirmation can just as easily affect you that's when you see the machinery that's when you see reality just it opens its cover but you have to accept that it's happening to you if you believe it only happens to the dumb people on the other side you'll never see the machinery and then you will be the scenery so you can be the scenery or you can see the machinery and if you think that you know who has cognitive dissonance in this situation your scenery if you can accept that you don't know as i do i really don't know if i'm right i only know what it looks like and i accept that and that allows me to see the machinery don't be the scenery all right uh and we heard more about this ukrainian volunteer drone unit bunch of nerds i say that with love because i love technical people um they've modified these little hobby sized drones and apparently they got credit for stopping the convoy i feel like they might be getting a little more attention than maybe their actual contribution is but do you wonder if maybe there isn't still some kind of secret drones over there that we don't exactly know about maybe maybe something that america or nato has that's a little bit stealthier or a little bit faster or i don't know maybe a little more autonomous a little more something i don't know and do you think that when this is over we'll learn that there was some technology in play that made a big difference that we hadn't heard of during the conflict maybe i don't know it could be just that the uh the let's say the weaponization of drones in general is the whole story or most of it um what do you think of the idea of calling putin a war criminal let me explain how war crimes are um tried it's very complicated so try to try to follow along this is this is how you handle the war crimes so you've got the international criminal court located in hague and it's created by the rome statute but some people are members some are we got the united nations they could do something and then the members could all agree they would give it a patina of credibility but of course russia wouldn't go along with it so it doesn't really matter so you've got a whole bunch of legal remedies and legal approaches that all have the same uh they have all the same characteristic we don't fully understand them and they're not going to make any difference whatsoever because putin isn't going to go to trial right and we're not going to capture him if he leaves the country are we really i mean i don't think so would we if somebody could take him into custody i don't think so but here's what's interesting can putin ever travel again except to the few places where you know they're friendly i feel like that russia no longer has a leader in any realistic way meaning that if the if the whole world decides you just can't even come here you can't even you can't even touch our territory do you really have a leader because you kind of want a leader who can go to the g8 the g20 you know whatever is appropriate you feel like you feel like you're neat leader needs to show up right 90 of success is attendance and he can't attend right attendance is very important and now they have a an alleged leader who can't attend in a practical way because he won't be invited or it might be too risky to leave the country so in a real sense they already they've already lost their leader i mean it's like he's a military commander now but the country doesn't have a a political leader because the the other countries that would need to treat him like a political leader are just not going to do it because they have this this credible allegations of war crimes now i want to jump in here and say because every time i say something like russia's committing war crimes somebody who's pro-ukraine jumps in and says scott scott scott why you believe in the news and the propaganda don't you know that the ukrainians were shelling the the russians and the donbass and discriminating against them to which i say i don't really know that no but i don't need to know it because if you're telling me that ukrainians have done any war crimes against russians during this conflict or even before did some bad things well believe it you don't even have to show me an example it just sounds like something people do so i'm already there i don't even need any evidence yeah it's a war there are war crimes uh-huh both sides yeah yeah both sides most of the time or all the time all the time all the time if it was if it were only sometimes that wars produced war crimes then i'd be like let's look into this let's look into these details got to find out who's doing it who isn't but i don't believe that do you i just think war creates war crimes because the people that you send into war are the people who are going to do some war crimes and if they didn't start that way work and turn them into that kind of people and i think that there are legitimate tradeoffs between you know saving yourself and saving saving your prisoners and people are gonna say well i'd rather save myself frankly thank you uh biden droned in innocent family well intention always matters so yeah intention matters um i i'm tending to think that it might be a good move uh branding putin as a war criminal uh he's never gonna be tried unless there's some kind of revolution in uh russia itself i suppose that's possible but i don't see that happening i think russia will just continue as a degraded country and uh that's it it'll just be a degraded country forever for at least for a long time all right um i don't have much else to talk about is there anything i missed did you hear the story about the 75 year old activist who was at what several years ago he was out there and the police were clearing the streets and they they shoved him and he fell down and hit his head now there was some case against the police officer and the police officer has been completely cleared apparently if you stand in front of the police and try to stop their progress they can push you out of the way turns out you the police can push people out of the way if if they're trying to stop the police from doing their job now i remember seeing that when it originally happened and people called me a ghoul for thinking i didn't see a crime there i don't know if anybody remembers that i had a pretty small audience at the time but i remember looking at it and thinking well what do you think happens when you stand in front of a police action like what how do you imagine that goes like was there a positive way that was going to turn out i don't know now of course the fact that falling down and being pushed out of the way actually caused an injury that's not funny but i don't think it was the point of why he was pushed i don't think he was they were trying to hurt him i think they were trying to get him out of the way and i don't think that it was obvious that that was gonna you know be as bad as it was all right the hunter biden case is heating up or is it or is it yeah he was a local provocateur provocateur provocateur um is there a new troll who's not doing a good job over here on the on youtube i hate it when the new guy he's not really trained on what where my hot buttons are yet he's just like flailing can somebody train the new guy by now everybody must know my hot buttons i'm sure you can find them can't be that hard am i still on prisoner island i am not i am not and uh not that i won't go back prisoner island uh recalls us on a regular basis you you do get dropped on prisoner island every now and then so let me let me tell you what uh one of my big issues was that apparently isn't a big issue so i uh i thought i had a uh a hernia it's a little iguana hernia or something and uh i thought that would require surgery and probably really soon and it would ruin my whole summer and i really really needed a non-pandemic summer i mean most of you do but i really really needed it and i went to the doctor and the doctor said and this will surprise you it turns out that googling your symptoms is just as good as a doctor don't don't listen to anybody who tells you it doesn't so so i basic i basically went in and said doctor i think i have a uh in inguinal hernia and the doctor says let me see and it took the doctor like three seconds to say oh yeah that's one and then i said all right what do i do and the doctor said well uh you know there's one group listen to this this will this will dovetail into the actual live stream content that i do it turns out that there was a study of one group of patients that always refused hernia surgery just one group what do you think that group was who was the group who refused her hurt your surgery even when they had hernia somebody says the amish that wasn't where i was going and the answer is surgeons are we done here yeah the group least likely to get hernia surgery to fix it as opposed to just living with it or surgeons and that's what my doctor told me and so the new thinking is that you might be better off living with it unless it worsens right there's some point at which surgery is necessary but mine is really doesn't have any pain and you can't really see it so there's nothing visual there's no pain it just is something i know exists i'll work around it and so i'll have a good summer so i was sort of on prisoner island and thought i'd stay there but i just wasn't current with the best thinking on it and so i scared myself for no reason i probably will end up i imagine someday getting it repaired but it won't be this summer so i'm not going to worry about it yes oh you have one mesh you got to do the other side yeah maybe i'll have to who knows and that's all for now uh hope you had a great time because and i'll talk to you later

good morning everybody

and i am delighted to see all of you

especially you and you

and you

you know who you are

and uh

while you're here how would you like to

get your dopamine just

just raging

that's why we're here

and a little bit of oxytocin a little

bit

but we'll we'll jack up your dopamine a

good 20 percent get you going for the

day and all you need is a copper auger

glass on tanker chelsea stein the

canting car flask

a vessel of any kind fill it with your

favorite liquid

i like coffee

and join me now for the unparalleled

pleasure it's the dopamine day of the

day it's the thing that makes everything

better it's called a simultaneous sep

but it happens now go

here's your persuasion tip of the day

if you didn't already know this

when you associate

something that people like a pleasure

that's a known pleasure

with some other thought or stimulation

you can take some of the uh

goodness from the thing you like

and it gets transferred over to the

thing you associate with as long as it's

sort of a fresh thing that people

haven't thought too much about and have

too much baggage with

and

you can use that to extend

people's enjoyment from things they

already enjoy

to entirely new things

how cool is that

you can actually make people enjoy

things

that they never considered enjoying

before just by association

it happens with songs your song that

reminds you of something

uh still to this day when i hear uh

there's a song by traffic

uh

the

i can't remember which one it is but it

was played before all

uh college soccer games at my alma mater

hartwick college

which one of the years i was there was

the number one soccer power in the

country which is weird because it was a

tiny little school

but it won the the one the whole country

one year

that i was there and so the soccer was

this big event and they would play the

same song

before each uh

game and you'd be so charged up

in a variety of ways if you know what i

mean because it was college after all

and it would be so fun to be there that

that song even if i hear it today years

later you get just an immediate dopamine

hit

so

use that use that technique to extend

the things you like

rasmussen had a poll

asking people is it illegal is illegal

immigration getting worse

uh so rasmussen asked that poll and 55

said

yes illegal immigration is getting worse

27 said no oh

no

no no no no it's not getting worse

27

27 that's about a that's about a quarter

of the people who responded about a

quarter

quarters well if you were to round it

off

it's roughly 25

which means absolutely nothing to the

people who have never seen this live

stream before

but if you've been here before

you know how funny this is right now

because 25 is roughly the number of

people who get every poll question wrong

it doesn't matter how easy the question

is

uh

question

is oxygen good for humans

64 said yes

26 said no

no people don't need oxygen

oh

oh no

well

uh meanwhile in censorship news juanita

broderick

had her account locked on twitter

for for what they say is uh

misinformation about covet here is what

she tweeted and you be the judge

is this misinformation

or fact

uh she tweeted when will this vaccine

crap be over big farmer has big pharma

has profited enough

for the next hundred years stop pushing

vaccines that don't work and oh here

comes the here comes the bad part

alter dna she posted on saturday

alter dna

cannot say alter dna

alert alert alert censorship code of

silence

juanita has been neutralized has been

neutralized

now to be clear

i don't think the vaccinations alter

your dna

i don't think that's true

but

separately

was it a good idea for her to be

censored

that's really the question yeah you

could you could argue whether she's

right or wrong i suppose and i don't

think she's right i don't think so

but how would i know really

what what exactly would be my

qualifications for answering that

question i don't know

seems like the news seems pretty

convinced it's not altering your dna but

how would how would i know really

so

i wonder if there isn't a better way to

handle something like this for example

if the altering the dna part was the

offending part

could you alter the twitter interface to

simply flag the

part that

mainstream

experts disagree with

would that be offensive to you

would you consider that a violation of

free speech

if twitter simply had a policy

of instead of banning people now

remember you're going to compare it to

banning people

and not necessarily for every person who

says everything that's wrong but just

people who are bannable in that bannable

range

would you be okay with these the

bandable part

simply connecting to a source

maybe not a fact checker

no no because we don't trust the fact

checkers right but i feel like there's a

better way to handle it

um in other

censorship news uh jack bassamek

apparently

got

locked out of his twitter account for a

while but he seems to be back

and correct me if i'm wrong is that

because he

called disney groomers

because of their

what is it the opposition to the new law

about what what to teach young kids

about sexuality or sexual preference or

something i don't know

i just can't get interested in the story

i hate it i know you are right well let

me ask you

let me ask you this

how many of you are like really

interested in this florida law story

is it interesting to you

i see mostly not

okay well i see i see yeses maybe it

depends if you have kids who are

in that relevant age group all right so

it's a mixture

but probably more no's and yes's

although i suppose i could have gotten

this on any topic right

it's only the fascinating way i cover it

that makes it so

so salient

um yeah i feel there isn't just there's

just not enough to say about it

like we know what some people want we

know what the criticism is they're going

to fight it out

i don't know just doesn't seem like

there's anything there

anything there that makes it worthy for

yet another person to be talking about

it certainly it matters to the people

involved so i don't want to minimize let

me not minimize

the importance to the people involved

it's certainly important to the people

who

care about such things and maybe they

should

but

there isn't much depth to the story is

what i'm saying

somebody says one thing scott will never

do and that is condemn a pedophile

would anybody like me to see me do that

it's a challenge

i've been challenged

will i condemn a pedophile

are you wondering if i'm gonna bail out

and not condem a pedophile

[Laughter]

okay

i condemn pedophiles

totally

you okay with that

now

here's the part where i get banned from

all social media

if not society itself

i also don't believe in free will

sorry

so

you have to condemn people who are you

know doing things that are bad for

society and especially bad for kids so

that there's no there's no hesitation

about what's right for society

right

for society yeah yeah you gotta condemn

the hell out of anybody who's hurting

anybody

most people agree with that

but

on a philosophical level i kind of see

everybody as equal

sorry not legally and not practically in

a practical sense you just can't treat

everybody the same yeah you have to

treat certain behaviors completely

differently than other behaviors of

course

but when i walk into a room and see a

bunch of miscreants and nerdwells and

non-standard people basically a pirate

ship of humanity

i don't walk into that room and say well

you suck you suck uh you're an

you're bad uh you're unworthy uh that

one i like

that one i like i don't do that

i walk in and i like the whole pirate

ship

i like the whole pirate ship

i have to condemn some of them for

behaviors

but

i don't devalue people because i don't

see free will the same way other people

do

so

certainly you can change people's

behavior maybe by condemning certain

parts maybe it reduces who does what

but i don't believe in oh

judge not thank you

thank you if you'd like to put it into

christian terms and and let me invite

you to do that i'm not a believer

but i like

i like the framework it's a handy

framework

so yeah

who am i to judge that that would be the

better way to say i don't put myself in

the

role of a judge

but certainly you have to condemn

certain behaviors for practical reasons

all right um

here's my new red line i i was insulted

on twitter today

and while i

i think you should use the blocking

judiciously

somebody went a little too far today

and i want i just want to run it by you

you know because you're my advisors so

as my advisors

did i go too far or is this reasonable

i blocked somebody today who accused me

in public

and people are going to see this right

because it's like a permanent record he

actually accused me in public of

believing the news

well i mean i blocked that

um don't

don't do that

if you want to ever

ever

ever see me again

i will be so gone

all right

um so the big interesting news is that

the elon musk has declined the offer

to have a board seat on twitter

isn't that interesting didn't we think

that his play was to get on the board

and that he'd have some influence

well it turns out

we all learn something today or you're

about to learn it

being on the board limits your options

did you know that

it limits your options if you're elon

musk

it probably doesn't limit your options

if you're just

a board member like

if you were important enough to be on

the board but maybe other people haven't

heard your name before

well in that case being on the board

probably does give you more influence

over twitter but if you elon musk all it

does is limit you

because everybody's going to listen to

what you say right

that's the key

everyone's going to listen to what you

say so once you have that

being on the board just gives you

limitations it's a limit to what you can

say about the company i'm pretty sure i

think there's some limits about how you

can trash the company if you're on the

board

and i think there's a limit to how much

stock you can own somebody said 15

so why would he put up with limits

when there's no upside

and i think to myself

i don't know if there's another person

in the world who would have played it

this way

and it's right

i don't know anybody else who would have

played it exactly like this to earn a

board seat and then turn it down

because it was limiting

nobody else would do that even even if

they were in this position

i feel like they wouldn't have done that

like he he consistently finds the thing

that

you're not supposed to do

and then makes it work and that's that's

why it's so fun to watch now he

continues to make

marketing departments completely

irrelevant wherever he has ownership of

a company because he just is so

newsworthy

that really has anybody not heard of

twitter

have you not heard that there might be

some changes coming

i think you probably have heard it

but the marketing department didn't get

it done

must did

all right

so i

uh

so i saw a tweet by a user named tank

that's what he calls himself on twitter

he tweets he goes uh let me break this

down for you

elon becomes largest shareholder for

free speech

elon was told to play nice and not speak

freely

in other words

the entire reason he was doing it was to

have you know try to get free speech for

himself and others

and joining the board would actually

limit his free speech you know in a

in a in a commercial way not not in a

government way

so

in a separate but related story

there's a twitter engineering manager

now what i don't know

is how important a twitter engineering

manager is

are there lots of them

because there are lots of subgroups so

they all need a little manager or is

this somebody who manages all the

engineers i don't know be a pretty big

difference

but somebody who is a

twitter

engineering manager

uh had been tweeting some

negative stuff about elon being on the

board and really hated it and you know

was digging up some old elon musk tweets

to embarrass them

and

i think this is telling you everything

isn't it

it feels like that's everything

i feel like uh

knowing that there's a engineering

manager in twitter that really really

doesn't like whatever it is that elon

musk thinks he's going to do

i feel like

now you know everything

don't you

now it's only one person

so you know maybe i'm over generalizing

here

but that's one person who operated with

impunity in the sense that that one

person was you know not shy about

putting out the message he put out

i shouldn't say he

because i don't know the pronoun

but uh let's say they put out

all right um

here's another funny tweet by first

words

on twitter at uh unscripted mike says

this

he said elon musk recently built the

largest factory in the world in texas of

course just launched the first all

private rocket to the international

space station and will soon restore free

speech to twitter the 21st century town

square

meanwhile biden was speaking

incoherently somewhere the whole time

and the reason the the funny thing about

this tweet is what makes it work is the

last uh

three unnecessary words

so here's a little tip for you

generally speaking you want to remove

unnecessary words from your

communication

because they're unnecessary and they

just get in the way

but an exception is humor

where sometimes the unnecessary words

are

i don't know exactly why they work so

it's just something you have to a b test

in your head if i add these unnecessary

words is it better or worse and i don't

know why this is better but

but let me read the sentence again and

see how important the whole time is even

though it's unnecessary watch

meanwhile biden was speaking

incoherently somewhere the whole time

the whole time i don't know that's what

makes the tweet

right

um

by the way how often have you seen my

blog post on how to be the day you

became a better writer

how many of you have seen that because

it's going around again it's been going

around

i think he gets

passed around at least every month

or so for years

if you haven't seen it the reason it

gets passed around every month or so for

years is that when people read it and it

takes approximately

less than two minutes

very short

and it's basically the shortest writing

lesson in the world with the most impact

so it was created to be exactly that the

shortest writing with the most impact so

just google if you want to see that

the day

you became a better writer

the day you became a better writer and

with my name it'll pop right up it's all

over the place

now this is why i like this live stream

because some of you know what just

happened right

some of you know what just happened

and some of you don't but you're going

to find out what just happened was

the people who are familiar with that

little piece i just recommended

are are actually aware that it actually

fundamentally

gave them a superpower

like turned them from

mediocre writers or good ish writers

into good writers in two minutes

in two minutes

it really does that

and that's why i put these little two to

four minute lessons on locals

subscription platform

because you can actually fundamentally

change somebody's effectiveness forever

forever

in two to four minutes you just have to

say the right stuff

so

uh the the people who know that know

that i just changed a whole bunch of

lives

just by mentioning it

yeah maybe three of you will google it

but the the three of you who google it

and read it are actually gonna have

different outcomes it's that powerful

all right

um

there's some more information

about

uh the importance of ventilation

and i would still love to know this

question

if we know that almost nobody gets

covered outdoors

and we know that for sure right

has anybody ever gotten covent in a well

ventilated place

and and how well ventilated does it need

to be

because

you know i i've been talked during the

pandemic what if you just turn on your

fans what if you just have fans on is

that good enough

and we still don't know the answer to

that

we might have had a complete solution to

the pandemic

and overlooked it because it was too

ordinary

which is make sure there's a fan in

every room

now the experts say

you got to have a window open but i

think that's where they go wrong

because if the window's open it's going

to be too cold too hot then there's a

reason that people close windows right

bugs

so i really really really wonder if just

moving the air

is enough to distribute the plumes and

we might have had a solution the whole

time we might have

all right here's my solution to the

whole

lgbtq and i think they've added some

numbers or letters maybe some numbers

too and some letters recently

and this is a persuasion

uh recommendation

now i know many of you are on the

let's say the

the social warrior side of

uh stop making a big fuss and giving all

these rights to those lgbtq

activists

and stuff like that

this isn't going to be that

this is actually going to be legitimate

advice

for how the people who would define

themselves in that community

could get maybe better results

okay

and this is in in the form of a

persuasion lesson i'll just apply to

something that's in the news

every time the lgbtq adds a as a new

designation or a new flavor

i think they get further from their

objective

and and what i would do is advise them

to take a

take a tip from what the gay activists

did in the earlier days of

gay rights

do you remember when gay was called

homosexual

and homosexual sounds almost like a

disease if you're not well educated

right it just sounds like wait that word

is way too big

there's a there's a famous story

and maybe somebody can tell me if this

is real or it's just one of those

stories you heard that in the early days

of the united states i don't know

exactly what year somebody was running

for election

and won the election in part

by labeling his opponent a i think it

was a flagrant heterosexual

and people were so undereducated

that when they heard that they're like

whoa

a flagrant heterosexual

we can't have one of those in office you

know back in cowboy days or whatever the

hell was i mean it feels like it was a

a lincoln kind of a era thing but

can can somebody tell me did that really

happen

yeah so i don't know if that really

happened but it tells the story really

well

so here's the thing

when

the gay rights people changed uh you

know from homosexual and queer

although queer they they sort of did the

n-word thing and owned it which was also

a good technique

but gay

who doesn't want to be gay

i mean in the sense that it sounds happy

right

so just labeling it with a word that

people universally embrace before they

think about it

was kind of sort of awesome in terms of

persuasion

it's just one of the greatest

persuasion plays of all times in my

opinion just one of the best although

black lives matter was very good again

we're separating

whether you like the politics of it from

just the persuasion element of it if we

could right

so what could the lgbtq

and extra letters

um

do

to be more

like friendlier sounding so they

immediately get a a positive a positive

vibe

before people think about the politics

and

here's what i would suggest

uh non-binary

now correct me if i'm wrong but

non-binary the way it's currently used

is more limited

than including all of lgbtq right

it doesn't matter for my purposes i'm

saying to you to rebrand non-binary as

the only thing

that captures everything that's not

binary

here's why

people like being non-binary

if you say you fit into one or two

categories i say yeah damn it i oh i

don't know if that sounds so good for me

it feels like i'm a little bit limited

in my thinking doesn't it

even if you're completely hetero or

you're completely

you know if you're completely hetero

you're still going to say

yeah i'm completely hetero

but

i don't know i'd like to think that at

least

at least i had some flexibility you know

and i also wonder

if there aren't lots of people who would

brand themselves hetero

who in their private thoughts are

thinking well i'm hetero

ish

you know what i mean

maybe the

porn they look at isn't exactly uh

matching their hetero you know what i

mean you know what i mean there must be

plenty of people who say

yeah for public consumption i'm i'm

hetero

but you know privately i'm a little bit

non-binary just a little bit

and i see a lot of pushback which which

is why i'm doing this i mean if if it

were not provocative would i do it

really

if i were not provocative that's what

makes this question fun

so with all respect to the lgbtq

community

which some of my favorite people are

members of

um i think if you just said non-binary

maybe you'd get further

or or even something better if there's a

word like gay that just puts a

positive spin on it from the start and

then you think about the politics that's

all

just uh come up with a better label than

a bunch of alphabet letters

all right

um

have you noticed that in our minds at

least there are certain patterns that

keep repeating

and one of the reasons that movies and

books and tv shows work

is that people

like certain patterns of things like

they like stories of good versus evil

they like stories of redemption right

there's a limited set of

what we imagine or the stories that we

want to see

and i'm fascinated when i see parallels

for example

as i tweeted today if you if you're

familiar with the um

the star trek universe

this this will work better if you have

some familiarity with that universe

but if nato is the federation and again

right everybody gets to say their their

side is the good guys

i get it i get it right if you're in

russia

nato doesn't look like the federation

but from our point of view right this is

just a subjective point of view if nato

was the federation

would russia be the klingons

and would china be the romulans or would

they be the ferenga forengai

or the borg

they're a little bit the boring because

they're trying to assimilate the uyghurs

but they're a little bit their friend

guy because they're you know commerce

sort of commerce first

uh

and the russians seem like the klingons

because it feels like the honor of their

empire is what matters more than life

itself

yeah the friend or the frankie are

capitalists but they're merchants right

um

so

this all brings me to the most important

question

which is when we look at this whole

russia russia-ukraine war what would uh

what would shatner do

and until we've heard that i don't think

we understand the whole situation but

what would captain kirk do

i was going to ask him but i'm

i i couldn't his uh dms are closed

all right

here's a

my proof most provocative take today

you're gonna hate this one

um in my opinion

it looks like russia already lost the

war

but

the news is not saying that

like i'm observing it in what seems to

me and i'll get to my cognitive bias and

my confirmation bias that's the point

we're going to that so you don't need to

shout that that you disagree with me yet

because your disagreement is the point

of this right

i'm watching the news and you're

watching the news but why do i see that

russia already lost but the news isn't

reporting it

so there are two possibilities here

which are kind of cool

number one

i'm suffering from a confirmation bias

because i

somewhat uniquely among

experts and probably most of you

said that russia would actually be uh

running into a buzzsaw

and it wouldn't be easy

and that the modern technology that the

ukrainian army was likely to have access

to because their nato and american

sponsorship

they were likely to surprise russia with

a unusually aggressive and effective

tech led response i said their tanks

would be in trouble that drones would be

part of it and so far 100 of that seems

true

right

but would you say that my so i had the

incorrect prediction

100 incorrect

that russia knew what i knew

which is this doesn't look easy

but i guess they thought it was maybe

they had bad information so they went

ahead and invaded so that part i'm 100

wrong just so you can hear me say when

i'm wrong

but it looks to me

like the second part of that

that russia would be surprised

happened

and then it's already happened because

it doesn't look like they really have a

good shot at taking over the country in

terms of owning the capital kyiv

and now we see them doing something that

looks again again

just to me it looks this way not to you

i'm not i'm not suggesting you see it

this way i'm saying that my confirmation

bias

which makes me want to be right

see i want to be right

that ukraine was you know more able to

defend itself than others thought

so

i'm interpreting the situation to make

myself right

and even though i'm aware of it

i can't unsee it

isn't that weird

like i'm completely aware that i'm the

only one seeing this

but there's a reason i'm the only one

seeing it

either

and here's the fun part

either you're all right and i'm

experiencing confirmation bias

completely possible i have no way to

know that that's not true

and it's actually quite likely

i put it in the solidly very likely

category

the other possibility

is that most of you get your opinions

from the news

most people do they get their opinions

from the news it's very rare to have

somebody who has an opinion that

disagrees with either the left or the

right leaning news it's very very odd

unusual so you get your opinions largely

from the news

and the news

told you with all its experts

that ukraine was going to be conquered

by russia well okay not in two days well

it might take him a little longer

but suddenly

russia has withdrawn from the entire

north to try to salvage whatever it can

it doesn't even look like it's going to

take odessa

i mean maybe it will but at the moment

it looks like it got stopped from taking

odessa too in the port

so

am i

experiencing cognitive dissonance or

is the entire mainstream

media including the left and the right

because remember both the left and the

right thought it was going to be an easy

victory for russia

and they were so wrong

it looks to me

they were so wrong

that they can't tell you that they were

wrong

and that the cognitive dissonance and

the confirmation bias is a hundred

percent on the mainstream media side

who has now brainwashed

the rest of you

into believing that something like a

russian victory is is unfolding

when

the news they actually report

i just watched uh general petraeus you

know explain the situation and the

withdrawal from kiev if you just look at

what he's reporting

it really looks like russia already lost

but

you tell me

let's take a vote

tell me am i am i experiencing

confirmation bias

and russia will just roll on to victory

yes or no

the correct that there's only one

correct answer the correct answer i just

saw only one person said it

the correct answer is unknown

all right you just separated yourselves

into the higher level of awareness

and lower level

here's what i'm not going to tell you

that i'm right

about this

i can't tell you that i'm right i can

only tell you what it feels like

because if you're experiencing cognitive

dissonance

or confirmation bias

you're the one who doesn't know

you're the one who doesn't know so if

it's me i don't know and even if you

tell me even if every one of you told me

i'm experiencing it i'd still say and i

don't think so

i don't think so i got reasons i got

good reasons

one person said unknown

when i asked the question who has

cognitive dissonance

the person who said unknown

has the best level of awareness

probably in the conversation

the moment you realize that cognitive

dissonance and and confirmation can just

as easily affect you

that's when you see the machinery

that's when you see

reality just

it opens its cover

but you have to accept

that it's happening to you

if you believe it only happens to the

dumb people on the other side

you'll never see the machinery

and then

you will be

the scenery

so you can be the scenery or you can see

the machinery

and if you think that you know who has

cognitive dissonance in this situation

your scenery

if you can accept

that you don't know

as i do i really don't know if i'm right

i only know what it looks like

and i accept that

and that allows me to see the machinery

don't be the scenery

all right uh

and we heard more about this ukrainian

volunteer drone unit bunch of nerds

i say that with love because i love

technical people

um

they've modified these little hobby

sized drones and

apparently they got credit for stopping

the convoy i feel like they might be

getting a little more attention than

maybe their actual

contribution is but do you wonder if

maybe there isn't still some kind of

secret drones over there that we don't

exactly know about

maybe maybe something that america or

nato has that's

a little bit stealthier or a little bit

faster or

i don't know maybe a little more

autonomous

a little more something

i don't know

and

do you think that when this is over

we'll learn that there was some

technology in play that made a big

difference that we hadn't heard of

during the conflict

maybe i don't know it could be just that

the uh the

let's say the weaponization of drones in

general is the whole story or most of it

um what do you think of the idea of

calling putin a war criminal

let me explain how war crimes are

um tried it's very complicated

so try to try to follow along this is

this is how you handle the war crimes so

you've got the international criminal

court located in hague and it's created

by the rome statute but some people are

members some are we got the united

nations they could do something and then

the members could all agree they would

give it a patina of credibility but of

course russia wouldn't go along with it

so it doesn't really matter so you've

got a whole bunch of legal remedies and

legal approaches that all have the same

uh they have all the same characteristic

we don't fully understand them and

they're not going to make any difference

whatsoever

because

putin isn't going to go to trial

right

and we're not going to capture him if he

leaves the country are we

really

i mean i don't think so would we

if somebody could take him into custody

i don't think so

but

here's what's interesting

can putin ever travel again

except to the few places where you know

they're friendly

i feel like

that russia no longer has a leader in

any realistic way

meaning that

if the if the whole world decides you

just can't even come here

you can't even you can't even touch our

territory do you really have a leader

because you kind of want a leader who

can go to the g8 the g20 you know

whatever is appropriate you feel like

you feel like you're neat leader needs

to show up

right 90 of success is attendance

and he can't attend

right attendance is very important and

now they have a an alleged leader who

can't attend

in a practical way because he won't be

invited or it might be too risky to

leave the country

so in a real sense they already they've

already lost their leader

i mean it's like he's a military

commander now but the country doesn't

have a a political leader because the

the other countries that would need to

treat him like a political leader are

just not going to do it

because they have this this credible

allegations of war crimes now

i want to jump in here and say

because every time i say something like

russia's committing war crimes

somebody who's pro-ukraine jumps in and

says scott scott scott

why you believe in the news and the

propaganda don't you know that the

ukrainians were shelling the

the russians and the donbass and

discriminating against them to which i

say

i don't really know that

no but i don't need to know it

because if you're telling me that

ukrainians have done any war crimes

against russians during this conflict or

even before did some bad things

well believe it

you don't even have to show me an

example it just sounds like something

people do

so

i'm already there

i don't even need any evidence yeah it's

a war there are war crimes uh-huh

both sides yeah yeah both sides

most of the time or all the time all the

time

all the time if it was if it were only

sometimes

that wars produced war crimes then i'd

be like let's look into this

let's look into these details

got to find out who's doing it who isn't

but i don't believe that do you

i just think war creates war crimes

because the people that you send into

war

are the people who are going to do some

war crimes and if they didn't start that

way

work and turn them into that kind of

people

and

i think that there are legitimate

tradeoffs between

you know saving yourself and saving

saving your prisoners

and people are gonna say well i'd rather

save myself frankly thank you

uh

biden droned in innocent family well

intention always matters

so

yeah intention matters

um i i'm tending to think that it might

be a good move uh branding putin as a

war criminal

uh

he's never gonna be tried

unless there's some kind of revolution

in

uh russia itself i suppose that's

possible but i don't see that happening

i think russia will just continue as a

degraded country

and

uh that's it it'll just be a degraded

country forever

for at least for a long

time all right

um i don't have much else to talk about

is there anything i missed

did you hear the story about the 75 year

old

activist

who was at what several years ago

he was out there and the police were

clearing the streets and they they

shoved him and he fell down and hit his

head

now there was some case against the

police officer and the police officer

has been completely cleared

apparently

if you stand in front of the police and

try to stop their progress

they can push you out of the way

turns out you the police can push people

out of the way if if they're trying to

stop the police from doing their job

now i remember seeing that when it

originally happened and people called me

a ghoul

for thinking i didn't see a crime there

i don't know if anybody remembers that i

had a pretty small

audience at the time but i remember

looking at it and thinking

well what do you think happens when you

stand in front of a police action

like what

how do you imagine that goes

like

was there a positive way that was going

to turn out i don't know now of course

the fact that

falling down and being pushed out of the

way actually caused an injury that's not

funny

but i don't think it was the point of

why he was pushed i don't think he was

they were trying to hurt him i think

they were trying to get him out of the

way and i don't think that it was

obvious that that was gonna

you know be as bad as it was

all right

the hunter biden case is heating up

or is it

or is it

yeah he was a local provocateur

provocateur provocateur

um

is there a new troll who's not doing a

good job over here on the

on youtube i hate it when the new guy

he's not really trained on what where my

hot buttons are yet he's just like

flailing

can somebody train the new guy

by now everybody must know my hot

buttons i'm sure you can find them can't

be that hard

am i still on prisoner island

i am not

i am not

and

uh

not that i won't go back

prisoner island uh

recalls us on a regular basis

you you do get dropped on prisoner

island every now and then

so let me let me tell you what uh one of

my big

issues was that apparently isn't a big

issue

so i uh i thought i had a uh

a hernia

it's a little iguana hernia or something

and uh i thought that would require

surgery and probably really soon and it

would ruin my whole summer

and i really really needed

a non-pandemic summer i mean most of you

do but i really really needed it and

i went to the doctor and the doctor said

and this will surprise you it turns out

that googling your symptoms

is just as good as a doctor don't don't

listen to anybody who tells you it

doesn't so so i basic i basically went

in and said doctor i think i have a

uh in inguinal

hernia

and the doctor says let me see and it

took the doctor like three seconds to

say oh yeah

that's one

and then i said all right what do i do

and the doctor said well

uh you know there's one group listen to

this

this will this will dovetail into the

actual

live stream content that i do

it turns out that there was a study

of one group of patients that always

refused hernia surgery

just one group

what do you think that group was

who was the group who refused her hurt

your surgery even when they had hernia

somebody says the amish

that wasn't where i was going

and the answer is surgeons

are we done here

yeah the group least likely to get

hernia surgery to fix it as opposed to

just living with it

or surgeons

and that's what my doctor told me

and so the new thinking

is that

you might be better off living with it

unless it worsens right there's some

point at which surgery is necessary but

mine is

really doesn't have any pain

and you can't really see it so there's

nothing visual

there's no pain it just is something i

know exists i'll work around it and so

i'll have a good summer

so i was sort of on prisoner island and

thought i'd stay there but i just wasn't

current with the best thinking on it and

so i scared myself for no reason i

probably will end up i imagine someday

getting it repaired but it won't be this

summer

so i'm not going to worry about it

yes

oh you have one mesh

you got to do the other side yeah maybe

i'll have to who knows

and that's all for now

uh hope you had a great time

because

and i'll talk to you later