Episode 1710 Scott Adams - Start Your Week Off Right With The Simultaneous Sip & Weird Headline Views
Find my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com Content: ----------- - Twitter suspensions for free speech - Elon Musk declines joining Twitter board - Non-Binary as a catchall - Ukraine War musings - Inguinal hernia surgery resistors ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
Good morning everybody, and I am delighted to see all of you, especially you and you and you. You know who you are. And while you're here, how would you like to get your dopamine just raging? That's why we're here. A little bit of oxytocin, a little bit, but we'll jack up your dopamine a good 20 per…
View segment →g for the day. And all you need is a copper mug, glass or tankard, chalice, stein, decanter, carafe, flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine hit of the day. It's the thing that makes everything be…
View segment →neous sip. But it happens now. Go. Here's your persuasion tip of the day. If you didn't already know this, when you associate something that people like, a pleasure that's a known pleasure, with some other thought or stimulation, you can take some of the goodness from the thing you like and it gets…
View segment →r was this big event and they would play the same song before each game and you'd be so charged up in a variety of ways, if you know what I mean, because it was college after all, and it would be so fun to be there that that song, even if I hear it today years later, you get just an immediate dopami…
View segment →ter simply had a policy of, instead of banning people, now remember you're going to compare it to banning people and not necessarily for every person who says everything that's wrong but just people who are bannable in that bannable range, would you be okay with the bannable part simply connecting t…
View segment →I know you are right. Well let me ask you this. How many of you are like really interested in this Florida law story? Is it interesting to you? I see mostly not. Okay, well I see yeses. Maybe it depends if you have kids who are in that relevant age group. All right, so it's a mixture but probably mo…
View segment →il out and not condemn a pedophile? Okay, I condemn pedophiles totally. You okay with that? Now here's the part where I get banned from all social media if not society itself. I also don't believe in free will. Sorry. So you have to condemn people who are doing things that are bad for society and e…
View segment →people agree with that. But on a philosophical level I kind of see everybody as equal. Sorry, not legally and not practically. In a practical sense you just can't treat everybody the same. Yeah, you have to treat certain behaviors completely differently than other behaviors of course. But when I wal…
View segment →sage they put out. Here's another funny tweet by First Words on Twitter at unscriptedmike. He said, "Elon Musk recently built the largest factory in the world in Texas, of course just launched the first all-private rocket to the International Space Station and will soon restore free speech to Twitt…
View segment →ately less than two minutes, very short, and it's basically the shortest writing lesson in the world with the most impact. So it was created to be exactly that, the shortest writing with the most impact. So just Google if you want to see that, "the day you became a better writer" and with my name it…
View segment →st by mentioning it. Yeah, maybe three of you will Google it but the three of you who Google it and read it are actually gonna have different outcomes. It's that powerful. All right. There's some more information about the importance of ventilation and I would still love to know this question. If w…
View segment →heterosexual, we can't have one of those in office. You know back in cowboy days or whatever the hell it was. I mean it feels like it was a Lincoln kind of era thing but can somebody tell me did that really happen? Yeah so I don't know if that really happened but it tells the story really well. So…
View segment →ter was very good. Again we're separating whether you like the politics of it from just the persuasion element of it if we could, right? So what could the LGBTQ and extra letters do to be more like friendlier sounding so they immediately get a positive vibe before people think about the politics? A…
View segment →mation bias is a hundred percent on the mainstream media side who has now brainwashed the rest of you into believing that something like a Russian victory is unfolding when the news they actually report, I just watched General Petraeus explain the situation and the withdrawal from Kiev, if you just…
View segment →important. And now they have an alleged leader who can't attend in a practical way because he won't be invited or it might be too risky to leave the country. So in a real sense they've already lost their leader. I mean it's like he's a military commander now but the country doesn't have a political…
View segment →ared myself for no reason. I probably will end up I imagine someday getting it repaired but it won't be this summer so I'm not going to worry about it. Yes oh you have one mesh you got to do the other side. Yeah maybe I'll have to. Who knows. And that's all for now. Hope you had a great time and I'…
View segment →Good morning everybody, and I am delighted to see all of you, especially you and you and you. You know who you are. And while you're here, how would you like to get your dopamine just raging? That's why we're here. A little bit of oxytocin, a little bit, but we'll jack up your dopamine a good 20 percent, get you going for the day. And all you need is a copper mug, glass or tankard, chalice, stein, decanter, carafe, flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. It's the dopamine hit of the day. It's the thing that makes everything better. It's called a simultaneous sip. But it happens now. Go.
Here's your persuasion tip of the day. If you didn't already know this, when you associate something that people like, a pleasure that's a known pleasure, with some other thought or stimulation, you can take some of the goodness from the thing you like and it gets transferred over to the thing you associate with, as long as it's sort of a fresh thing that people haven't thought too much about and don't have too much baggage with. And you can use that to extend people's enjoyment from things they already enjoy to entirely new things. How cool is that? You can actually make people enjoy things that they never considered enjoying before just by association. It happens with songs. Your song that reminds you of something. Still to this day when I hear, there's a song by Traffic, I can't remember which one it is, but it was played before all college soccer games at my alma mater, Hartwick College, which one of the years I was there was the number one soccer power in the country, which is weird because it was a tiny little school but it won the whole country one year that I was there. And so the soccer was this big event and they would play the same song before each game and you'd be so charged up in a variety of ways, if you know what I mean, because it was college after all, and it would be so fun to be there that that song, even if I hear it today years later, you get just an immediate dopamine hit. So use that. Use that technique to extend the things you like.
Rasmussen had a poll asking people, is illegal immigration getting worse? So Rasmussen asked that poll and 55 percent said yes, illegal immigration is getting worse. 27 percent said no, no, no, no, no, it's not getting worse. 27. 27. That's about a quarter of the people who responded. About a quarter. If you were to round it off it's roughly 25, which means absolutely nothing to the people who have never seen this live stream before. But if you've been here before you know how funny this is right now because 25 is roughly the number of people who get every poll question wrong. It doesn't matter how easy the question is. Question is, is oxygen good for humans? 64 percent said yes, 26 percent said no. No, people don't need oxygen. Oh no.
Meanwhile in censorship news, Juanita Broderick had her account locked on Twitter for what they say is misinformation about COVID. Here is what she tweeted and you be the judge. Is this misinformation or fact? She tweeted, "When will this vaccine crap be over? Big Pharma has profited enough for the next hundred years. Stop pushing vaccines that don't work." And oh, here comes the bad part: "Alter DNA." She posted on Saturday, "Alter DNA. Alert, alert, alert." Censorship code of silence. Juanita has been neutralized. Has been neutralized.
Now to be clear, I don't think the vaccinations alter your DNA. I don't think that's true. But separately, was it a good idea for her to be censored? That's really the question. Yeah, you could argue whether she's right or wrong I suppose, and I don't think she's right. I don't think so. But how would I know really? What exactly would be my qualifications for answering that question? I don't know. Seems like the news seems pretty convinced it's not altering your DNA. But how would I know really? So I wonder if there isn't a better way to handle something like this. For example, if the altering the DNA part was the offending part, could you alter the Twitter interface to simply flag the part that mainstream experts disagree with? Would that be offensive to you? Would you consider that a violation of free speech if Twitter simply had a policy of, instead of banning people, now remember you're going to compare it to banning people and not necessarily for every person who says everything that's wrong but just people who are bannable in that bannable range, would you be okay with the bannable part simply connecting to a source? Maybe not a fact checker. No, no, because we don't trust the fact checkers, right? But I feel like there's a better way to handle it.
In other censorship news, Jack Posobiec apparently got locked out of his Twitter account for a while but he seems to be back. And correct me if I'm wrong, is that because he called Disney groomers because of their opposition to the new law about what to teach young kids about sexuality or sexual preference or something? I don't know. I just can't get interested in the story. I hate it.
I know you are right. Well let me ask you this. How many of you are like really interested in this Florida law story? Is it interesting to you? I see mostly not. Okay, well I see yeses. Maybe it depends if you have kids who are in that relevant age group. All right, so it's a mixture but probably more no's than yeses. Although I suppose I could have gotten this on any topic, right? It's only the fascinating way I cover it that makes it so salient.
Yeah, I feel there isn't just, there's just not enough to say about it. Like we know what some people want. We know what the criticism is. They're going to fight it out. I don't know. Just doesn't seem like there's anything there that makes it worthy for yet another person to be talking about it. Certainly it matters to the people involved so I don't want to minimize it. Let me not minimize the importance to the people involved. It's certainly important to the people who care about such things and maybe they should. But there isn't much depth to the story is what I'm saying.
Somebody says one thing Scott will never do, and that is condemn a pedophile. Would anybody like to see me do that? It's a challenge. I've been challenged. Will I condemn a pedophile? Are you wondering if I'm gonna bail out and not condemn a pedophile? Okay, I condemn pedophiles totally. You okay with that?
Now here's the part where I get banned from all social media if not society itself. I also don't believe in free will. Sorry. So you have to condemn people who are doing things that are bad for society and especially bad for kids so that there's no hesitation about what's right for society. Yeah, yeah, you gotta condemn the hell out of anybody who's hurting anybody. Most people agree with that. But on a philosophical level I kind of see everybody as equal. Sorry, not legally and not practically. In a practical sense you just can't treat everybody the same. Yeah, you have to treat certain behaviors completely differently than other behaviors of course. But when I walk into a room and see a bunch of miscreants and ne'er-do-wells and non-standard people, basically a pirate ship of humanity, I don't walk into that room and say well you suck, you suck, you're bad, you're unworthy, that one I like, that one I like. I don't do that. I walk in and I like the whole pirate ship. I like the whole pirate ship. I have to condemn some of them for behaviors but I don't devalue people because I don't see free will the same way other people do. So certainly you can change people's behavior maybe by condemning certain parts. Maybe it reduces who does what. But I don't believe in, oh judge not. Thank you. Thank you. If you'd like to put it into Christian terms and let me invite you to do that. I'm not a believer but I like the framework. It's a handy framework. So yeah, who am I to judge? That would be the better way to say it. I don't put myself in the role of a judge but certainly you have to condemn certain behaviors for practical reasons.
All right. Here's my new red line. I was insulted on Twitter today and while I think you should use the blocking judiciously, somebody went a little too far today and I just want to run it by you because you're my advisors. So as my advisors, did I go too far or is this reasonable? I blocked somebody today who accused me in public, and people are going to see this right because it's like a permanent record, he actually accused me in public of believing the news. Well I mean I blocked that. Don't do that if you want to ever ever ever see me again. I will be so gone.
All right. So the big interesting news is that Elon Musk has declined the offer to have a board seat on Twitter. Isn't that interesting? Didn't we think that his play was to get on the board and that he'd have some influence? Well it turns out we all learn something today or you're about to learn it. Being on the board limits your options. Did you know that? It limits your options if you're Elon Musk. It probably doesn't limit your options if you're just a board member like if you were important enough to be on the board but maybe other people haven't heard your name before. Well in that case being on the board probably does give you more influence over Twitter. But if you're Elon Musk all it does is limit you because everybody's going to listen to what you say, right? That's the key. Everyone's going to listen to what you say. So once you have that, being on the board just gives you limitations. It's a limit to what you can say about the company I'm pretty sure. I think there's some limits about how you can trash the company if you're on the board and I think there's a limit to how much stock you can own. Somebody said 15 percent. So why would he put up with limits when there's no upside? And I think to myself I don't know if there's another person in the world who would have played it this way and it's right. I don't know anybody else who would have played it exactly like this, to earn a board seat and then turn it down because it was limiting. Nobody else would do that even if they were in this position. I feel like they wouldn't have done that. He consistently finds the thing that you're not supposed to do and then makes it work and that's why it's so fun to watch.
Now he continues to make marketing departments completely irrelevant wherever he has ownership of a company because he just is so newsworthy that really has anybody not heard of Twitter? Have you not heard that there might be some changes coming? I think you probably have heard it but the marketing department didn't get it done. Musk did.
So I saw a tweet by a user named Tank, that's what he calls himself on Twitter. He tweets, he goes, let me break this down for you. Elon becomes largest shareholder for free speech. Elon was told to play nice and not speak freely. In other words the entire reason he was doing it was to have, you know, try to get free speech for himself and others and joining the board would actually limit his free speech, you know, in a commercial way not in a government way.
So in a separate but related story there's a Twitter engineering manager. Now what I don't know is how important a Twitter engineering manager is. Are there lots of them because there are lots of subgroups so they all need a little manager or is this somebody who manages all the engineers? I don't know. It'd be a pretty big difference. But somebody who is a Twitter engineering manager had been tweeting some negative stuff about Elon being on the board and really hated it and was digging up some old Elon Musk tweets to embarrass him. And I think this is telling you everything isn't it? It feels like that's everything. I feel like knowing that there's an engineering manager in Twitter that really really doesn't like whatever it is that Elon Musk thinks he's going to do, I feel like now you know everything don't you? Now it's only one person so you know maybe I'm overgeneralizing here but that's one person who operated with impunity in the sense that that one person was not shy about putting out the message they put out.
Here's another funny tweet by First Words on Twitter at unscriptedmike. He said, "Elon Musk recently built the largest factory in the world in Texas, of course just launched the first all-private rocket to the International Space Station and will soon restore free speech to Twitter, the 21st century town square. Meanwhile Biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time." And the reason the funny thing about this tweet is what makes it work is the last three unnecessary words. So here's a little tip for you. Generally speaking you want to remove unnecessary words from your communication because they're unnecessary and they just get in the way. But an exception is humor where sometimes the unnecessary words, I don't know exactly why they work so it's just something you have to A-B test in your head. If I add these unnecessary words is it better or worse? And I don't know why this is better but let me read the sentence again and see how important "the whole time" is even though it's unnecessary. Watch: "Meanwhile Biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time." The whole time. I don't know. That's what makes the tweet right.
By the way, how often have you seen my blog post on "How to Be the Day You Became a Better Writer"? How many of you have seen that? Because it's going around again. It's been going around I think it gets passed around at least every month or so for years. If you haven't seen it the reason it gets passed around every month or so for years is that when people read it, and it takes approximately less than two minutes, very short, and it's basically the shortest writing lesson in the world with the most impact. So it was created to be exactly that, the shortest writing with the most impact. So just Google if you want to see that, "the day you became a better writer" and with my name it'll pop right up. It's all over the place now.
This is why I like this live stream because some of you know what just happened right? Some of you know what just happened and some of you don't but you're going to find out. What just happened was the people who are familiar with that little piece I just recommended are actually aware that it actually fundamentally gave them a superpower, like turned them from mediocre writers or good-ish writers into good writers in two minutes. In two minutes it really does that. And that's why I put these little two-to-four-minute lessons on the Locals subscription platform because you can actually fundamentally change somebody's effectiveness forever in two to four minutes. You just have to say the right stuff. So the people who know that know that I just changed a whole bunch of lives just by mentioning it. Yeah, maybe three of you will Google it but the three of you who Google it and read it are actually gonna have different outcomes. It's that powerful.
All right. There's some more information about the importance of ventilation and I would still love to know this question. If we know that almost nobody gets COVID outdoors and we know that for sure, right? Has anybody ever gotten COVID in a well-ventilated place? And how well ventilated does it need to be? Because you know I've been talking during the pandemic, what if you just turn on your fans? What if you just have fans on? Is that good enough? And we still don't know the answer to that. We might have had a complete solution to the pandemic and overlooked it because it was too ordinary, which is make sure there's a fan in every room. Now the experts say you got to have a window open but I think that's where they go wrong because if the window's open it's going to be too cold, too hot. Then there's a reason that people close windows, right? Bugs. So I really really really wonder if just moving the air is enough to distribute the plumes and we might have had a solution the whole time. We might have.
All right. Here's my solution to the whole LGBTQ, and I think they've added some numbers or letters, maybe some numbers too and some letters recently. And this is a persuasion recommendation. Now I know many of you are on the let's say the social warrior side of stop making a big fuss and giving all these rights to those LGBTQ activists and stuff like that. This isn't going to be that. This is actually going to be legitimate advice for how the people who would define themselves in that community could get maybe better results. Okay, and this is in the form of a persuasion lesson. I'll just apply it to something that's in the news. Every time the LGBTQ adds a new designation or a new flavor I think they get further from their objective. And what I would do is advise them to take a tip from what the gay activists did in the earlier days of gay rights. Do you remember when gay was called homosexual? And homosexual sounds almost like a disease if you're not well educated, right? It just sounds like, wait that word is way too big. There's a famous story and maybe somebody can tell me if this is real or it's just one of those stories you heard, that in the early days of the United States, I don't know exactly what year, somebody was running for election and won the election in part by labeling his opponent a, I think it was a flagrant heterosexual. And people were so undereducated that when they heard that they're like whoa, a flagrant heterosexual, we can't have one of those in office. You know back in cowboy days or whatever the hell it was. I mean it feels like it was a Lincoln kind of era thing but can somebody tell me did that really happen? Yeah so I don't know if that really happened but it tells the story really well.
So here's the thing. When the gay rights people changed from homosexual and queer, although queer they sort of did the n-word thing and owned it which was also a good technique, but gay? Who doesn't want to be gay? I mean in the sense that it sounds happy, right? So just labeling it with a word that people universally embrace before they think about it was kind of sort of awesome in terms of persuasion. It's just one of the greatest persuasion plays of all times in my opinion. Just one of the best. Although Black Lives Matter was very good. Again we're separating whether you like the politics of it from just the persuasion element of it if we could, right?
So what could the LGBTQ and extra letters do to be more like friendlier sounding so they immediately get a positive vibe before people think about the politics? And here's what I would suggest: non-binary. Now correct me if I'm wrong but non-binary the way it's currently used is more limited than including all of LGBTQ. Right? It doesn't matter for my purposes. I'm saying to you to rebrand non-binary as the only thing that captures everything that's not binary. Here's why. People like being non-binary. If you say you fit into one or two categories I say yeah damn it I don't know if that sounds so good for me. It feels like I'm a little bit limited in my thinking doesn't it? Even if you're completely hetero or you're completely, you know if you're completely hetero you're still going to say yeah I'm completely hetero but I don't know I'd like to think that at least I had some flexibility you know. And I also wonder if there aren't lots of people who would brand themselves hetero who in their private thoughts are thinking well I'm hetero-ish you know what I mean. Maybe the porn they look at isn't exactly matching their hetero you know what I mean. There must be plenty of people who say yeah for public consumption I'm hetero but you know privately I'm a little bit non-binary. Just a little bit.
And I see a lot of pushback which is why I'm doing this. I mean if it were not provocative would I do it really? If I were not provocative that's what makes this question fun. So with all respect to the LGBTQ community, which some of my favorite people are members of, I think if you just said non-binary maybe you'd get further. Or even something better if there's a word like gay that just puts a positive spin on it from the start and then you think about the politics. That's all. Just come up with a better label than a bunch of alphabet letters.
All right. Have you noticed that in our minds at least there are certain patterns that keep repeating and one of the reasons that movies and books and TV shows work is that people like certain patterns of things. Like they like stories of good versus evil. They like stories of redemption, right? There's a limited set of what we imagine are the stories that we want to see. And I'm fascinated when I see parallels. For example as I tweeted today, if you're familiar with the Star Trek universe this will work better if you have some familiarity with that universe. But if NATO is the Federation, and again everybody gets to say their side is the good guys I get it I get it right. If you're in Russia NATO doesn't look like the Federation but from our point of view, right, this is just a subjective point of view. If NATO was the Federation would Russia be the Klingons and would China be the Romulans or would they be the Ferengi or the Borg? They're a little bit the Borg because they're trying to assimilate the Uyghurs but they're a little bit the Ferengi because they're commerce first. And the Russians seem like the Klingons because it feels like the honor of their empire is what matters more than life itself. Yeah the Ferengi are capitalists but they're merchants, right?
So this all brings me to the most important question which is when we look at this whole Russia-Ukraine war what would Shatner do? And until we've heard that I don't think we understand the whole situation. But what would Captain Kirk do? I was going to ask him but his DMs are closed.
All right. Here's my most provocative take today. You're gonna hate this one. In my opinion it looks like Russia already lost the war but the news is not saying that. Like I'm observing it in what seems to me, and I'll get to my cognitive bias and my confirmation bias. That's the point. We're going to that so you don't need to shout that you disagree with me yet because your disagreement is the point of this, right? I'm watching the news and you're watching the news but why do I see that Russia already lost but the news isn't reporting it? So there are two possibilities here which are kind of cool. Number one I'm suffering from a confirmation bias because I somewhat uniquely among experts and probably most of you said that Russia would actually be running into a buzzsaw and it wouldn't be easy and that the modern technology that the Ukrainian army was likely to have access to because of their NATO and American sponsorship, they were likely to surprise Russia with an unusually aggressive and effective tech-led response. I said their tanks would be in trouble, that drones would be part of it, and so far 100 percent of that seems true, right? But would you say that my, so I had the incorrect prediction, 100 percent incorrect, that Russia knew what I knew which is this doesn't look easy but I guess they thought it was. Maybe they had bad information so they went ahead and invaded. So that part I'm 100 percent wrong just so you can hear me say when I'm wrong. But it looks to me like the second part of that, that Russia would be surprised, happened and then it's already happened because it doesn't look like they really have a good shot at taking over the country in terms of owning the capital Kyiv. And now we see them doing something that looks, again just to me it looks this way not to you, I'm not suggesting you see it this way, I'm saying that my confirmation bias which makes me want to be right, see I want to be right that Ukraine was more able to defend itself than others thought, so I'm interpreting the situation to make myself right and even though I'm aware of it I can't unsee it. Isn't that weird? Like I'm completely aware that I'm the only one seeing this but there's a reason I'm the only one seeing it. Either, and here's the fun part, either you're all right and I'm experiencing confirmation bias. Completely possible. I have no way to know that that's not true and it's actually quite likely. I put it in the solidly very likely category. The other possibility is that most of you get your opinions from the news. Most people do. They get their opinions from the news. It's very rare to have somebody who has an opinion that disagrees with either the left or the right leaning news. It's very very odd, unusual. So you get your opinions largely from the news and the news told you with all its experts that Ukraine was going to be conquered by Russia. Well okay not in two days. Well it might take him a little longer but suddenly Russia has withdrawn from the entire north to try to salvage whatever it can. It doesn't even look like it's going to take Odessa. I mean maybe it will but at the moment it looks like it got stopped from taking Odessa too in the port. So am I experiencing cognitive dissonance or is the entire mainstream media including the left and the right, because remember both the left and the right thought it was going to be an easy victory for Russia and they were so wrong it looks to me they were so wrong that they can't tell you that they were wrong and that the cognitive dissonance and the confirmation bias is a hundred percent on the mainstream media side who has now brainwashed the rest of you into believing that something like a Russian victory is unfolding when the news they actually report, I just watched General Petraeus explain the situation and the withdrawal from Kiev, if you just look at what he's reporting it really looks like Russia already lost. But you tell me. Let's take a vote. Tell me am I experiencing confirmation bias and Russia will just roll on to victory? Yes or no? The correct, there's only one correct answer. The correct answer I just saw only one person said it. The correct answer is unknown.
All right. You just separated yourselves into the higher level of awareness and lower level. Here's what I'm not going to tell you, that I'm right about this. I can't tell you that I'm right. I can only tell you what it feels like because if you're experiencing cognitive dissonance or confirmation bias you're the one who doesn't know. You're the one who doesn't know. So if it's me I don't know. And even if you tell me, even if every one of you told me I'm experiencing it I'd still say and I don't think so. I don't think so. I got reasons. I got good reasons. One person said unknown when I asked the question who has cognitive dissonance. The person who said unknown has the best level of awareness probably in the conversation. The moment you realize that cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias can just as easily affect you that's when you see the machinery. That's when you see reality just, it opens its cover. But you have to accept that it's happening to you. If you believe it only happens to the dumb people on the other side you'll never see the machinery and then you will be the scenery. So you can be the scenery or you can see the machinery. And if you think that you know who has cognitive dissonance in this situation you're scenery. If you can accept that you don't know as I do, I really don't know if I'm right. I only know what it looks like and I accept that and that allows me to see the machinery. Don't be the scenery.
All right. And we heard more about this Ukrainian volunteer drone unit. Bunch of nerds. I say that with love because I love technical people. They've modified these little hobby-sized drones and apparently they got credit for stopping the convoy. I feel like they might be getting a little more attention than maybe their actual contribution is but do you wonder if maybe there isn't still some kind of secret drones over there that we don't exactly know about? Maybe something that America or NATO has that's a little bit stealthier or a little bit faster or I don't know maybe a little more autonomous, a little more something. I don't know. And do you think that when this is over we'll learn that there was some technology in play that made a big difference that we hadn't heard of during the conflict? Maybe. I don't know. It could be just that the weaponization of drones in general is the whole story or most of it.
What do you think of the idea of calling Putin a war criminal? Let me explain how war crimes are tried. It's very complicated so try to follow along. This is how you handle the war crimes. So you've got the International Criminal Court located in The Hague and it's created by the Rome Statute but some people are members some aren't. We've got the United Nations. They could do something and then the members could all agree they would give it a patina of credibility but of course Russia wouldn't go along with it so it doesn't really matter. So you've got a whole bunch of legal remedies and legal approaches that all have the same characteristic. We don't fully understand them and they're not going to make any difference whatsoever because Putin isn't going to go to trial right and we're not going to capture him if he leaves the country are we really? I mean I don't think so. Would we if somebody could take him into custody? I don't think so. But here's what's interesting. Can Putin ever travel again except to the few places where they're friendly? I feel like that Russia no longer has a leader in any realistic way meaning that if the whole world decides you just can't even come here, you can't even touch our territory, do you really have a leader? Because you kind of want a leader who can go to the G8, the G20, you know whatever is appropriate. You feel like your leader needs to show up right? Ninety percent of success is attendance and he can't attend. Attendance is very important. And now they have an alleged leader who can't attend in a practical way because he won't be invited or it might be too risky to leave the country. So in a real sense they've already lost their leader. I mean it's like he's a military commander now but the country doesn't have a political leader because the other countries that would need to treat him like a political leader are just not going to do it because they have these credible allegations of war crimes.
Now I want to jump in here and say because every time I say something like Russia's committing war crimes somebody who's pro-Ukraine jumps in and says Scott Scott Scott why you believe in the news and the propaganda? Don't you know that the Ukrainians were shelling the Russians in the Donbass and discriminating against them? To which I say I don't really know that. No. But I don't need to know it because if you're telling me that Ukrainians have done any war crimes against Russians during this conflict or even before did some bad things, well believe it. You don't even have to show me an example. It just sounds like something people do so I'm already there. I don't even need any evidence. Yeah it's a war. There are war crimes. Both sides. Yeah both sides most of the time or all the time. All the time. All the time. If it were only sometimes that wars produced war crimes then I'd be like let's look into this. Let's look into these details. Got to find out who's doing it who isn't. But I don't believe that do you? I just think war creates war crimes because the people that you send into war are the people who are going to do some war crimes and if they didn't start that way war can turn them into that kind of people. And I think that there are legitimate tradeoffs between saving yourself and saving your prisoners and people are gonna say well I'd rather save myself frankly. Thank you. Biden droned an innocent family. Well intention always matters so yeah intention matters.
I'm tending to think that it might be a good move branding Putin as a war criminal. He's never gonna be tried unless there's some kind of revolution in Russia itself I suppose. That's possible but I don't see that happening. I think Russia will just continue as a degraded country and that's it. It'll just be a degraded country forever or at least for a long time.
All right. I don't have much else to talk about. Is there anything I missed? Did you hear the story about the 75-year-old activist who was at, what, several years ago he was out there and the police were clearing the streets and they shoved him and he fell down and hit his head. Now there was some case against the police officer and the police officer has been completely cleared apparently. If you stand in front of the police and try to stop their progress they can push you out of the way. Turns out the police can push people out of the way if they're trying to stop the police from doing their job. Now I remember seeing that when it originally happened and people called me a ghoul for thinking I didn't see a crime there. I don't know if anybody remembers that. I had a pretty small audience at the time but I remember looking at it and thinking well what do you think happens when you stand in front of a police action? How do you imagine that goes? Was there a positive way that was going to turn out? I don't know. Now of course the fact that falling down and being pushed out of the way actually caused an injury that's not funny but I don't think it was the point of why he was pushed. I don't think they were trying to hurt him. I think they were trying to get him out of the way and I don't think that it was obvious that that was gonna be as bad as it was.
All right. The Hunter Biden case is heating up or is it? Or is it? Yeah he was a local provocateur. Is there a new troll who's not doing a good job over here on YouTube? I hate it when the new guy, he's not really trained on where my hot buttons are yet. He's just flailing. Can somebody train the new guy? By now everybody must know my hot buttons. I'm sure you can find them. Can't be that hard.
Am I still on prisoner island? I am not. I am not. And not that I won't go back. Prisoner island recalls us on a regular basis. You do get dropped on prisoner island every now and then. So let me tell you what one of my big issues was that apparently isn't a big issue. So I thought I had a hernia. It's a little inguinal hernia or something and I thought that would require surgery and probably really soon and it would ruin my whole summer and I really really needed a non-pandemic summer. I mean most of you do but I really really needed it. And I went to the doctor and the doctor said, and this will surprise you, it turns out that googling your symptoms is just as good as a doctor. Don't listen to anybody who tells you it doesn't. So I basically went in and said doctor I think I have an inguinal hernia and the doctor says let me see and it took the doctor like three seconds to say oh yeah that's one. And then I said all right what do I do and the doctor said well you know there's one group, listen to this this will dovetail into the actual live stream content that I do. It turns out that there was a study of one group of patients that always refused hernia surgery. Just one group. What do you think that group was? Who was the group who refused hernia surgery even when they had a hernia? Somebody says the Amish. That wasn't where I was going. And the answer is surgeons. Are we done here? Yeah the group least likely to get hernia surgery to fix it as opposed to just living with it are surgeons. And that's what my doctor told me. And so the new thinking is that you might be better off living with it unless it worsens. Right? There's some point at which surgery is necessary but mine really doesn't have any pain and you can't really see it so there's nothing visual. There's no pain. It just is something I know exists. I'll work around it and so I'll have a good summer. So I was sort of on prisoner island and thought I'd stay there but I just wasn't current with the best thinking on it and so I scared myself for no reason. I probably will end up I imagine someday getting it repaired but it won't be this summer so I'm not going to worry about it. Yes oh you have one mesh you got to do the other side. Yeah maybe I'll have to. Who knows.
And that's all for now. Hope you had a great time and I'll talk to you later.
good morning everybody and i am delighted to see all of you especially you and you and you you know who you are and uh while you're here how would you like to get your dopamine just just raging that's why we're here and a little bit of oxytocin a little bit but we'll we'll jack up your dopamine a good 20 percent get you going for the day and all you need is a copper auger glass on tanker chelsea stein the canting car flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure it's the dopamine day of the day it's the thing that makes everything better it's called a simultaneous sep but it happens now go here's your persuasion tip of the day if you didn't already know this when you associate something that people like a pleasure that's a known pleasure with some other thought or stimulation you can take some of the uh goodness from the thing you like and it gets transferred over to the thing you associate with as long as it's sort of a fresh thing that people haven't thought too much about and have too much baggage with and you can use that to extend people's enjoyment from things they already enjoy to entirely new things how cool is that you can actually make people enjoy things that they never considered enjoying before just by association it happens with songs your song that reminds you of something uh still to this day when i hear uh there's a song by traffic uh the i can't remember which one it is but it was played before all uh college soccer games at my alma mater hartwick college which one of the years i was there was the number one soccer power in the country which is weird because it was a tiny little school but it won the the one the whole country one year that i was there and so the soccer was this big event and they would play the same song before each uh game and you'd be so charged up in a variety of ways if you know what i mean because it was college after all and it would be so fun to be there that that song even if i hear it today years later you get just an immediate dopamine hit so use that use that technique to extend the things you like rasmussen had a poll asking people is it illegal is illegal immigration getting worse uh so rasmussen asked that poll and 55 said yes illegal immigration is getting worse 27 said no oh no no no no no it's not getting worse 27 27 that's about a that's about a quarter of the people who responded about a quarter quarters well if you were to round it off it's roughly 25 which means absolutely nothing to the people who have never seen this live stream before but if you've been here before you know how funny this is right now because 25 is roughly the number of people who get every poll question wrong it doesn't matter how easy the question is uh question is oxygen good for humans 64 said yes 26 said no no people don't need oxygen oh oh no well uh meanwhile in censorship news juanita broderick had her account locked on twitter for for what they say is uh misinformation about covet here is what she tweeted and you be the judge is this misinformation or fact uh she tweeted when will this vaccine crap be over big farmer has big pharma has profited enough for the next hundred years stop pushing vaccines that don't work and oh here comes the here comes the bad part alter dna she posted on saturday alter dna cannot say alter dna alert alert alert censorship code of silence juanita has been neutralized has been neutralized now to be clear i don't think the vaccinations alter your dna i don't think that's true but separately was it a good idea for her to be censored that's really the question yeah you could you could argue whether she's right or wrong i suppose and i don't think she's right i don't think so but how would i know really what what exactly would be my qualifications for answering that question i don't know seems like the news seems pretty convinced it's not altering your dna but how would how would i know really so i wonder if there isn't a better way to handle something like this for example if the altering the dna part was the offending part could you alter the twitter interface to simply flag the part that mainstream experts disagree with would that be offensive to you would you consider that a violation of free speech if twitter simply had a policy of instead of banning people now remember you're going to compare it to banning people and not necessarily for every person who says everything that's wrong but just people who are bannable in that bannable range would you be okay with these the bandable part simply connecting to a source maybe not a fact checker no no because we don't trust the fact checkers right but i feel like there's a better way to handle it um in other censorship news uh jack bassamek apparently got locked out of his twitter account for a while but he seems to be back and correct me if i'm wrong is that because he called disney groomers because of their what is it the opposition to the new law about what what to teach young kids about sexuality or sexual preference or something i don't know i just can't get interested in the story i hate it i know you are right well let me ask you let me ask you this how many of you are like really interested in this florida law story is it interesting to you i see mostly not okay well i see i see yeses maybe it depends if you have kids who are in that relevant age group all right so it's a mixture but probably more no's and yes's although i suppose i could have gotten this on any topic right it's only the fascinating way i cover it that makes it so so salient um yeah i feel there isn't just there's just not enough to say about it like we know what some people want we know what the criticism is they're going to fight it out i don't know just doesn't seem like there's anything there anything there that makes it worthy for yet another person to be talking about it certainly it matters to the people involved so i don't want to minimize let me not minimize the importance to the people involved it's certainly important to the people who care about such things and maybe they should but there isn't much depth to the story is what i'm saying somebody says one thing scott will never do and that is condemn a pedophile would anybody like me to see me do that it's a challenge i've been challenged will i condemn a pedophile are you wondering if i'm gonna bail out and not condem a pedophile okay i condemn pedophiles totally you okay with that now here's the part where i get banned from all social media if not society itself i also don't believe in free will sorry so you have to condemn people who are you know doing things that are bad for society and especially bad for kids so that there's no there's no hesitation about what's right for society right for society yeah yeah you gotta condemn the hell out of anybody who's hurting anybody most people agree with that but on a philosophical level i kind of see everybody as equal sorry not legally and not practically in a practical sense you just can't treat everybody the same yeah you have to treat certain behaviors completely differently than other behaviors of course but when i walk into a room and see a bunch of miscreants and nerdwells and non-standard people basically a pirate ship of humanity i don't walk into that room and say well you suck you suck uh you're an you're bad uh you're unworthy uh that one i like that one i like i don't do that i walk in and i like the whole pirate ship i like the whole pirate ship i have to condemn some of them for behaviors but i don't devalue people because i don't see free will the same way other people do so certainly you can change people's behavior maybe by condemning certain parts maybe it reduces who does what but i don't believe in oh judge not thank you thank you if you'd like to put it into christian terms and and let me invite you to do that i'm not a believer but i like i like the framework it's a handy framework so yeah who am i to judge that that would be the better way to say i don't put myself in the role of a judge but certainly you have to condemn certain behaviors for practical reasons all right um here's my new red line i i was insulted on twitter today and while i i think you should use the blocking judiciously somebody went a little too far today and i want i just want to run it by you you know because you're my advisors so as my advisors did i go too far or is this reasonable i blocked somebody today who accused me in public and people are going to see this right because it's like a permanent record he actually accused me in public of believing the news well i mean i blocked that um don't don't do that if you want to ever ever ever see me again i will be so gone all right um so the big interesting news is that the elon musk has declined the offer to have a board seat on twitter isn't that interesting didn't we think that his play was to get on the board and that he'd have some influence well it turns out we all learn something today or you're about to learn it being on the board limits your options did you know that it limits your options if you're elon musk it probably doesn't limit your options if you're just a board member like if you were important enough to be on the board but maybe other people haven't heard your name before well in that case being on the board probably does give you more influence over twitter but if you elon musk all it does is limit you because everybody's going to listen to what you say right that's the key everyone's going to listen to what you say so once you have that being on the board just gives you limitations it's a limit to what you can say about the company i'm pretty sure i think there's some limits about how you can trash the company if you're on the board and i think there's a limit to how much stock you can own somebody said 15 so why would he put up with limits when there's no upside and i think to myself i don't know if there's another person in the world who would have played it this way and it's right i don't know anybody else who would have played it exactly like this to earn a board seat and then turn it down because it was limiting nobody else would do that even even if they were in this position i feel like they wouldn't have done that like he he consistently finds the thing that you're not supposed to do and then makes it work and that's that's why it's so fun to watch now he continues to make marketing departments completely irrelevant wherever he has ownership of a company because he just is so newsworthy that really has anybody not heard of twitter have you not heard that there might be some changes coming i think you probably have heard it but the marketing department didn't get it done must did all right so i uh so i saw a tweet by a user named tank that's what he calls himself on twitter he tweets he goes uh let me break this down for you elon becomes largest shareholder for free speech elon was told to play nice and not speak freely in other words the entire reason he was doing it was to have you know try to get free speech for himself and others and joining the board would actually limit his free speech you know in a in a in a commercial way not not in a government way so in a separate but related story there's a twitter engineering manager now what i don't know is how important a twitter engineering manager is are there lots of them because there are lots of subgroups so they all need a little manager or is this somebody who manages all the engineers i don't know be a pretty big difference but somebody who is a twitter engineering manager uh had been tweeting some negative stuff about elon being on the board and really hated it and you know was digging up some old elon musk tweets to embarrass them and i think this is telling you everything isn't it it feels like that's everything i feel like uh knowing that there's a engineering manager in twitter that really really doesn't like whatever it is that elon musk thinks he's going to do i feel like now you know everything don't you now it's only one person so you know maybe i'm over generalizing here but that's one person who operated with impunity in the sense that that one person was you know not shy about putting out the message he put out i shouldn't say he because i don't know the pronoun but uh let's say they put out all right um here's another funny tweet by first words on twitter at uh unscripted mike says this he said elon musk recently built the largest factory in the world in texas of course just launched the first all private rocket to the international space station and will soon restore free speech to twitter the 21st century town square meanwhile biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time and the reason the the funny thing about this tweet is what makes it work is the last uh three unnecessary words so here's a little tip for you generally speaking you want to remove unnecessary words from your communication because they're unnecessary and they just get in the way but an exception is humor where sometimes the unnecessary words are i don't know exactly why they work so it's just something you have to a b test in your head if i add these unnecessary words is it better or worse and i don't know why this is better but but let me read the sentence again and see how important the whole time is even though it's unnecessary watch meanwhile biden was speaking incoherently somewhere the whole time the whole time i don't know that's what makes the tweet right um by the way how often have you seen my blog post on how to be the day you became a better writer how many of you have seen that because it's going around again it's been going around i think he gets passed around at least every month or so for years if you haven't seen it the reason it gets passed around every month or so for years is that when people read it and it takes approximately less than two minutes very short and it's basically the shortest writing lesson in the world with the most impact so it was created to be exactly that the shortest writing with the most impact so just google if you want to see that the day you became a better writer the day you became a better writer and with my name it'll pop right up it's all over the place now this is why i like this live stream because some of you know what just happened right some of you know what just happened and some of you don't but you're going to find out what just happened was the people who are familiar with that little piece i just recommended are are actually aware that it actually fundamentally gave them a superpower like turned them from mediocre writers or good ish writers into good writers in two minutes in two minutes it really does that and that's why i put these little two to four minute lessons on locals subscription platform because you can actually fundamentally change somebody's effectiveness forever forever in two to four minutes you just have to say the right stuff so uh the the people who know that know that i just changed a whole bunch of lives just by mentioning it yeah maybe three of you will google it but the the three of you who google it and read it are actually gonna have different outcomes it's that powerful all right um there's some more information about uh the importance of ventilation and i would still love to know this question if we know that almost nobody gets covered outdoors and we know that for sure right has anybody ever gotten covent in a well ventilated place and and how well ventilated does it need to be because you know i i've been talked during the pandemic what if you just turn on your fans what if you just have fans on is that good enough and we still don't know the answer to that we might have had a complete solution to the pandemic and overlooked it because it was too ordinary which is make sure there's a fan in every room now the experts say you got to have a window open but i think that's where they go wrong because if the window's open it's going to be too cold too hot then there's a reason that people close windows right bugs so i really really really wonder if just moving the air is enough to distribute the plumes and we might have had a solution the whole time we might have all right here's my solution to the whole lgbtq and i think they've added some numbers or letters maybe some numbers too and some letters recently and this is a persuasion uh recommendation now i know many of you are on the let's say the the social warrior side of uh stop making a big fuss and giving all these rights to those lgbtq activists and stuff like that this isn't going to be that this is actually going to be legitimate advice for how the people who would define themselves in that community could get maybe better results okay and this is in in the form of a persuasion lesson i'll just apply to something that's in the news every time the lgbtq adds a as a new designation or a new flavor i think they get further from their objective and and what i would do is advise them to take a take a tip from what the gay activists did in the earlier days of gay rights do you remember when gay was called homosexual and homosexual sounds almost like a disease if you're not well educated right it just sounds like wait that word is way too big there's a there's a famous story and maybe somebody can tell me if this is real or it's just one of those stories you heard that in the early days of the united states i don't know exactly what year somebody was running for election and won the election in part by labeling his opponent a i think it was a flagrant heterosexual and people were so undereducated that when they heard that they're like whoa a flagrant heterosexual we can't have one of those in office you know back in cowboy days or whatever the hell was i mean it feels like it was a a lincoln kind of a era thing but can can somebody tell me did that really happen yeah so i don't know if that really happened but it tells the story really well so here's the thing when the gay rights people changed uh you know from homosexual and queer although queer they they sort of did the n-word thing and owned it which was also a good technique but gay who doesn't want to be gay i mean in the sense that it sounds happy right so just labeling it with a word that people universally embrace before they think about it was kind of sort of awesome in terms of persuasion it's just one of the greatest persuasion plays of all times in my opinion just one of the best although black lives matter was very good again we're separating whether you like the politics of it from just the persuasion element of it if we could right so what could the lgbtq and extra letters um do to be more like friendlier sounding so they immediately get a a positive a positive vibe before people think about the politics and here's what i would suggest uh non-binary now correct me if i'm wrong but non-binary the way it's currently used is more limited than including all of lgbtq right it doesn't matter for my purposes i'm saying to you to rebrand non-binary as the only thing that captures everything that's not binary here's why people like being non-binary if you say you fit into one or two categories i say yeah damn it i oh i don't know if that sounds so good for me it feels like i'm a little bit limited in my thinking doesn't it even if you're completely hetero or you're completely you know if you're completely hetero you're still going to say yeah i'm completely hetero but i don't know i'd like to think that at least at least i had some flexibility you know and i also wonder if there aren't lots of people who would brand themselves hetero who in their private thoughts are thinking well i'm hetero ish you know what i mean maybe the porn they look at isn't exactly uh matching their hetero you know what i mean you know what i mean there must be plenty of people who say yeah for public consumption i'm i'm hetero but you know privately i'm a little bit non-binary just a little bit and i see a lot of pushback which which is why i'm doing this i mean if if it were not provocative would i do it really if i were not provocative that's what makes this question fun so with all respect to the lgbtq community which some of my favorite people are members of um i think if you just said non-binary maybe you'd get further or or even something better if there's a word like gay that just puts a positive spin on it from the start and then you think about the politics that's all just uh come up with a better label than a bunch of alphabet letters all right um have you noticed that in our minds at least there are certain patterns that keep repeating and one of the reasons that movies and books and tv shows work is that people like certain patterns of things like they like stories of good versus evil they like stories of redemption right there's a limited set of what we imagine or the stories that we want to see and i'm fascinated when i see parallels for example as i tweeted today if you if you're familiar with the um the star trek universe this this will work better if you have some familiarity with that universe but if nato is the federation and again right everybody gets to say their their side is the good guys i get it i get it right if you're in russia nato doesn't look like the federation but from our point of view right this is just a subjective point of view if nato was the federation would russia be the klingons and would china be the romulans or would they be the ferenga forengai or the borg they're a little bit the boring because they're trying to assimilate the uyghurs but they're a little bit their friend guy because they're you know commerce sort of commerce first uh and the russians seem like the klingons because it feels like the honor of their empire is what matters more than life itself yeah the friend or the frankie are capitalists but they're merchants right um so this all brings me to the most important question which is when we look at this whole russia russia-ukraine war what would uh what would shatner do and until we've heard that i don't think we understand the whole situation but what would captain kirk do i was going to ask him but i'm i i couldn't his uh dms are closed all right here's a my proof most provocative take today you're gonna hate this one um in my opinion it looks like russia already lost the war but the news is not saying that like i'm observing it in what seems to me and i'll get to my cognitive bias and my confirmation bias that's the point we're going to that so you don't need to shout that that you disagree with me yet because your disagreement is the point of this right i'm watching the news and you're watching the news but why do i see that russia already lost but the news isn't reporting it so there are two possibilities here which are kind of cool number one i'm suffering from a confirmation bias because i somewhat uniquely among experts and probably most of you said that russia would actually be uh running into a buzzsaw and it wouldn't be easy and that the modern technology that the ukrainian army was likely to have access to because their nato and american sponsorship they were likely to surprise russia with a unusually aggressive and effective tech led response i said their tanks would be in trouble that drones would be part of it and so far 100 of that seems true right but would you say that my so i had the incorrect prediction 100 incorrect that russia knew what i knew which is this doesn't look easy but i guess they thought it was maybe they had bad information so they went ahead and invaded so that part i'm 100 wrong just so you can hear me say when i'm wrong but it looks to me like the second part of that that russia would be surprised happened and then it's already happened because it doesn't look like they really have a good shot at taking over the country in terms of owning the capital kyiv and now we see them doing something that looks again again just to me it looks this way not to you i'm not i'm not suggesting you see it this way i'm saying that my confirmation bias which makes me want to be right see i want to be right that ukraine was you know more able to defend itself than others thought so i'm interpreting the situation to make myself right and even though i'm aware of it i can't unsee it isn't that weird like i'm completely aware that i'm the only one seeing this but there's a reason i'm the only one seeing it either and here's the fun part either you're all right and i'm experiencing confirmation bias completely possible i have no way to know that that's not true and it's actually quite likely i put it in the solidly very likely category the other possibility is that most of you get your opinions from the news most people do they get their opinions from the news it's very rare to have somebody who has an opinion that disagrees with either the left or the right leaning news it's very very odd unusual so you get your opinions largely from the news and the news told you with all its experts that ukraine was going to be conquered by russia well okay not in two days well it might take him a little longer but suddenly russia has withdrawn from the entire north to try to salvage whatever it can it doesn't even look like it's going to take odessa i mean maybe it will but at the moment it looks like it got stopped from taking odessa too in the port so am i experiencing cognitive dissonance or is the entire mainstream media including the left and the right because remember both the left and the right thought it was going to be an easy victory for russia and they were so wrong it looks to me they were so wrong that they can't tell you that they were wrong and that the cognitive dissonance and the confirmation bias is a hundred percent on the mainstream media side who has now brainwashed the rest of you into believing that something like a russian victory is is unfolding when the news they actually report i just watched uh general petraeus you know explain the situation and the withdrawal from kiev if you just look at what he's reporting it really looks like russia already lost but you tell me let's take a vote tell me am i am i experiencing confirmation bias and russia will just roll on to victory yes or no the correct that there's only one correct answer the correct answer i just saw only one person said it the correct answer is unknown all right you just separated yourselves into the higher level of awareness and lower level here's what i'm not going to tell you that i'm right about this i can't tell you that i'm right i can only tell you what it feels like because if you're experiencing cognitive dissonance or confirmation bias you're the one who doesn't know you're the one who doesn't know so if it's me i don't know and even if you tell me even if every one of you told me i'm experiencing it i'd still say and i don't think so i don't think so i got reasons i got good reasons one person said unknown when i asked the question who has cognitive dissonance the person who said unknown has the best level of awareness probably in the conversation the moment you realize that cognitive dissonance and and confirmation can just as easily affect you that's when you see the machinery that's when you see reality just it opens its cover but you have to accept that it's happening to you if you believe it only happens to the dumb people on the other side you'll never see the machinery and then you will be the scenery so you can be the scenery or you can see the machinery and if you think that you know who has cognitive dissonance in this situation your scenery if you can accept that you don't know as i do i really don't know if i'm right i only know what it looks like and i accept that and that allows me to see the machinery don't be the scenery all right uh and we heard more about this ukrainian volunteer drone unit bunch of nerds i say that with love because i love technical people um they've modified these little hobby sized drones and apparently they got credit for stopping the convoy i feel like they might be getting a little more attention than maybe their actual contribution is but do you wonder if maybe there isn't still some kind of secret drones over there that we don't exactly know about maybe maybe something that america or nato has that's a little bit stealthier or a little bit faster or i don't know maybe a little more autonomous a little more something i don't know and do you think that when this is over we'll learn that there was some technology in play that made a big difference that we hadn't heard of during the conflict maybe i don't know it could be just that the uh the let's say the weaponization of drones in general is the whole story or most of it um what do you think of the idea of calling putin a war criminal let me explain how war crimes are um tried it's very complicated so try to try to follow along this is this is how you handle the war crimes so you've got the international criminal court located in hague and it's created by the rome statute but some people are members some are we got the united nations they could do something and then the members could all agree they would give it a patina of credibility but of course russia wouldn't go along with it so it doesn't really matter so you've got a whole bunch of legal remedies and legal approaches that all have the same uh they have all the same characteristic we don't fully understand them and they're not going to make any difference whatsoever because putin isn't going to go to trial right and we're not going to capture him if he leaves the country are we really i mean i don't think so would we if somebody could take him into custody i don't think so but here's what's interesting can putin ever travel again except to the few places where you know they're friendly i feel like that russia no longer has a leader in any realistic way meaning that if the if the whole world decides you just can't even come here you can't even you can't even touch our territory do you really have a leader because you kind of want a leader who can go to the g8 the g20 you know whatever is appropriate you feel like you feel like you're neat leader needs to show up right 90 of success is attendance and he can't attend right attendance is very important and now they have a an alleged leader who can't attend in a practical way because he won't be invited or it might be too risky to leave the country so in a real sense they already they've already lost their leader i mean it's like he's a military commander now but the country doesn't have a a political leader because the the other countries that would need to treat him like a political leader are just not going to do it because they have this this credible allegations of war crimes now i want to jump in here and say because every time i say something like russia's committing war crimes somebody who's pro-ukraine jumps in and says scott scott scott why you believe in the news and the propaganda don't you know that the ukrainians were shelling the the russians and the donbass and discriminating against them to which i say i don't really know that no but i don't need to know it because if you're telling me that ukrainians have done any war crimes against russians during this conflict or even before did some bad things well believe it you don't even have to show me an example it just sounds like something people do so i'm already there i don't even need any evidence yeah it's a war there are war crimes uh-huh both sides yeah yeah both sides most of the time or all the time all the time all the time if it was if it were only sometimes that wars produced war crimes then i'd be like let's look into this let's look into these details got to find out who's doing it who isn't but i don't believe that do you i just think war creates war crimes because the people that you send into war are the people who are going to do some war crimes and if they didn't start that way work and turn them into that kind of people and i think that there are legitimate tradeoffs between you know saving yourself and saving saving your prisoners and people are gonna say well i'd rather save myself frankly thank you uh biden droned in innocent family well intention always matters so yeah intention matters um i i'm tending to think that it might be a good move uh branding putin as a war criminal uh he's never gonna be tried unless there's some kind of revolution in uh russia itself i suppose that's possible but i don't see that happening i think russia will just continue as a degraded country and uh that's it it'll just be a degraded country forever for at least for a long time all right um i don't have much else to talk about is there anything i missed did you hear the story about the 75 year old activist who was at what several years ago he was out there and the police were clearing the streets and they they shoved him and he fell down and hit his head now there was some case against the police officer and the police officer has been completely cleared apparently if you stand in front of the police and try to stop their progress they can push you out of the way turns out you the police can push people out of the way if if they're trying to stop the police from doing their job now i remember seeing that when it originally happened and people called me a ghoul for thinking i didn't see a crime there i don't know if anybody remembers that i had a pretty small audience at the time but i remember looking at it and thinking well what do you think happens when you stand in front of a police action like what how do you imagine that goes like was there a positive way that was going to turn out i don't know now of course the fact that falling down and being pushed out of the way actually caused an injury that's not funny but i don't think it was the point of why he was pushed i don't think he was they were trying to hurt him i think they were trying to get him out of the way and i don't think that it was obvious that that was gonna you know be as bad as it was all right the hunter biden case is heating up or is it or is it yeah he was a local provocateur provocateur provocateur um is there a new troll who's not doing a good job over here on the on youtube i hate it when the new guy he's not really trained on what where my hot buttons are yet he's just like flailing can somebody train the new guy by now everybody must know my hot buttons i'm sure you can find them can't be that hard am i still on prisoner island i am not i am not and uh not that i won't go back prisoner island uh recalls us on a regular basis you you do get dropped on prisoner island every now and then so let me let me tell you what uh one of my big issues was that apparently isn't a big issue so i uh i thought i had a uh a hernia it's a little iguana hernia or something and uh i thought that would require surgery and probably really soon and it would ruin my whole summer and i really really needed a non-pandemic summer i mean most of you do but i really really needed it and i went to the doctor and the doctor said and this will surprise you it turns out that googling your symptoms is just as good as a doctor don't don't listen to anybody who tells you it doesn't so so i basic i basically went in and said doctor i think i have a uh in inguinal hernia and the doctor says let me see and it took the doctor like three seconds to say oh yeah that's one and then i said all right what do i do and the doctor said well uh you know there's one group listen to this this will this will dovetail into the actual live stream content that i do it turns out that there was a study of one group of patients that always refused hernia surgery just one group what do you think that group was who was the group who refused her hurt your surgery even when they had hernia somebody says the amish that wasn't where i was going and the answer is surgeons are we done here yeah the group least likely to get hernia surgery to fix it as opposed to just living with it or surgeons and that's what my doctor told me and so the new thinking is that you might be better off living with it unless it worsens right there's some point at which surgery is necessary but mine is really doesn't have any pain and you can't really see it so there's nothing visual there's no pain it just is something i know exists i'll work around it and so i'll have a good summer so i was sort of on prisoner island and thought i'd stay there but i just wasn't current with the best thinking on it and so i scared myself for no reason i probably will end up i imagine someday getting it repaired but it won't be this summer so i'm not going to worry about it yes oh you have one mesh you got to do the other side yeah maybe i'll have to who knows and that's all for now uh hope you had a great time because and i'll talk to you later
good morning everybody
and i am delighted to see all of you
especially you and you
and you
you know who you are
and uh
while you're here how would you like to
get your dopamine just
just raging
that's why we're here
and a little bit of oxytocin a little
bit
but we'll we'll jack up your dopamine a
good 20 percent get you going for the
day and all you need is a copper auger
glass on tanker chelsea stein the
canting car flask
a vessel of any kind fill it with your
favorite liquid
i like coffee
and join me now for the unparalleled
pleasure it's the dopamine day of the
day it's the thing that makes everything
better it's called a simultaneous sep
but it happens now go
here's your persuasion tip of the day
if you didn't already know this
when you associate
something that people like a pleasure
that's a known pleasure
with some other thought or stimulation
you can take some of the uh
goodness from the thing you like
and it gets transferred over to the
thing you associate with as long as it's
sort of a fresh thing that people
haven't thought too much about and have
too much baggage with
and
you can use that to extend
people's enjoyment from things they
already enjoy
to entirely new things
how cool is that
you can actually make people enjoy
things
that they never considered enjoying
before just by association
it happens with songs your song that
reminds you of something
uh still to this day when i hear uh
there's a song by traffic
uh
the
i can't remember which one it is but it
was played before all
uh college soccer games at my alma mater
hartwick college
which one of the years i was there was
the number one soccer power in the
country which is weird because it was a
tiny little school
but it won the the one the whole country
one year
that i was there and so the soccer was
this big event and they would play the
same song
before each uh
game and you'd be so charged up
in a variety of ways if you know what i
mean because it was college after all
and it would be so fun to be there that
that song even if i hear it today years
later you get just an immediate dopamine
hit
so
use that use that technique to extend
the things you like
rasmussen had a poll
asking people is it illegal is illegal
immigration getting worse
uh so rasmussen asked that poll and 55
said
yes illegal immigration is getting worse
27 said no oh
no
no no no no it's not getting worse
27
27 that's about a that's about a quarter
of the people who responded about a
quarter
quarters well if you were to round it
off
it's roughly 25
which means absolutely nothing to the
people who have never seen this live
stream before
but if you've been here before
you know how funny this is right now
because 25 is roughly the number of
people who get every poll question wrong
it doesn't matter how easy the question
is
uh
question
is oxygen good for humans
64 said yes
26 said no
no people don't need oxygen
oh
oh no
well
uh meanwhile in censorship news juanita
broderick
had her account locked on twitter
for for what they say is uh
misinformation about covet here is what
she tweeted and you be the judge
is this misinformation
or fact
uh she tweeted when will this vaccine
crap be over big farmer has big pharma
has profited enough
for the next hundred years stop pushing
vaccines that don't work and oh here
comes the here comes the bad part
alter dna she posted on saturday
alter dna
cannot say alter dna
alert alert alert censorship code of
silence
juanita has been neutralized has been
neutralized
now to be clear
i don't think the vaccinations alter
your dna
i don't think that's true
but
separately
was it a good idea for her to be
censored
that's really the question yeah you
could you could argue whether she's
right or wrong i suppose and i don't
think she's right i don't think so
but how would i know really
what what exactly would be my
qualifications for answering that
question i don't know
seems like the news seems pretty
convinced it's not altering your dna but
how would how would i know really
so
i wonder if there isn't a better way to
handle something like this for example
if the altering the dna part was the
offending part
could you alter the twitter interface to
simply flag the
part that
mainstream
experts disagree with
would that be offensive to you
would you consider that a violation of
free speech
if twitter simply had a policy
of instead of banning people now
remember you're going to compare it to
banning people
and not necessarily for every person who
says everything that's wrong but just
people who are bannable in that bannable
range
would you be okay with these the
bandable part
simply connecting to a source
maybe not a fact checker
no no because we don't trust the fact
checkers right but i feel like there's a
better way to handle it
um in other
censorship news uh jack bassamek
apparently
got
locked out of his twitter account for a
while but he seems to be back
and correct me if i'm wrong is that
because he
called disney groomers
because of their
what is it the opposition to the new law
about what what to teach young kids
about sexuality or sexual preference or
something i don't know
i just can't get interested in the story
i hate it i know you are right well let
me ask you
let me ask you this
how many of you are like really
interested in this florida law story
is it interesting to you
i see mostly not
okay well i see i see yeses maybe it
depends if you have kids who are
in that relevant age group all right so
it's a mixture
but probably more no's and yes's
although i suppose i could have gotten
this on any topic right
it's only the fascinating way i cover it
that makes it so
so salient
um yeah i feel there isn't just there's
just not enough to say about it
like we know what some people want we
know what the criticism is they're going
to fight it out
i don't know just doesn't seem like
there's anything there
anything there that makes it worthy for
yet another person to be talking about
it certainly it matters to the people
involved so i don't want to minimize let
me not minimize
the importance to the people involved
it's certainly important to the people
who
care about such things and maybe they
should
but
there isn't much depth to the story is
what i'm saying
somebody says one thing scott will never
do and that is condemn a pedophile
would anybody like me to see me do that
it's a challenge
i've been challenged
will i condemn a pedophile
are you wondering if i'm gonna bail out
and not condem a pedophile
[Laughter]
okay
i condemn pedophiles
totally
you okay with that
now
here's the part where i get banned from
all social media
if not society itself
i also don't believe in free will
sorry
so
you have to condemn people who are you
know doing things that are bad for
society and especially bad for kids so
that there's no there's no hesitation
about what's right for society
right
for society yeah yeah you gotta condemn
the hell out of anybody who's hurting
anybody
most people agree with that
but
on a philosophical level i kind of see
everybody as equal
sorry not legally and not practically in
a practical sense you just can't treat
everybody the same yeah you have to
treat certain behaviors completely
differently than other behaviors of
course
but when i walk into a room and see a
bunch of miscreants and nerdwells and
non-standard people basically a pirate
ship of humanity
i don't walk into that room and say well
you suck you suck uh you're an
you're bad uh you're unworthy uh that
one i like
that one i like i don't do that
i walk in and i like the whole pirate
ship
i like the whole pirate ship
i have to condemn some of them for
behaviors
but
i don't devalue people because i don't
see free will the same way other people
do
so
certainly you can change people's
behavior maybe by condemning certain
parts maybe it reduces who does what
but i don't believe in oh
judge not thank you
thank you if you'd like to put it into
christian terms and and let me invite
you to do that i'm not a believer
but i like
i like the framework it's a handy
framework
so yeah
who am i to judge that that would be the
better way to say i don't put myself in
the
role of a judge
but certainly you have to condemn
certain behaviors for practical reasons
all right um
here's my new red line i i was insulted
on twitter today
and while i
i think you should use the blocking
judiciously
somebody went a little too far today
and i want i just want to run it by you
you know because you're my advisors so
as my advisors
did i go too far or is this reasonable
i blocked somebody today who accused me
in public
and people are going to see this right
because it's like a permanent record he
actually accused me in public of
believing the news
well i mean i blocked that
um don't
don't do that
if you want to ever
ever
ever see me again
i will be so gone
all right
um so the big interesting news is that
the elon musk has declined the offer
to have a board seat on twitter
isn't that interesting didn't we think
that his play was to get on the board
and that he'd have some influence
well it turns out
we all learn something today or you're
about to learn it
being on the board limits your options
did you know that
it limits your options if you're elon
musk
it probably doesn't limit your options
if you're just
a board member like
if you were important enough to be on
the board but maybe other people haven't
heard your name before
well in that case being on the board
probably does give you more influence
over twitter but if you elon musk all it
does is limit you
because everybody's going to listen to
what you say right
that's the key
everyone's going to listen to what you
say so once you have that
being on the board just gives you
limitations it's a limit to what you can
say about the company i'm pretty sure i
think there's some limits about how you
can trash the company if you're on the
board
and i think there's a limit to how much
stock you can own somebody said 15
so why would he put up with limits
when there's no upside
and i think to myself
i don't know if there's another person
in the world who would have played it
this way
and it's right
i don't know anybody else who would have
played it exactly like this to earn a
board seat and then turn it down
because it was limiting
nobody else would do that even even if
they were in this position
i feel like they wouldn't have done that
like he he consistently finds the thing
that
you're not supposed to do
and then makes it work and that's that's
why it's so fun to watch now he
continues to make
marketing departments completely
irrelevant wherever he has ownership of
a company because he just is so
newsworthy
that really has anybody not heard of
have you not heard that there might be
some changes coming
i think you probably have heard it
but the marketing department didn't get
it done
must did
all right
so i
uh
so i saw a tweet by a user named tank
that's what he calls himself on twitter
he tweets he goes uh let me break this
down for you
elon becomes largest shareholder for
free speech
elon was told to play nice and not speak
freely
in other words
the entire reason he was doing it was to
have you know try to get free speech for
himself and others
and joining the board would actually
limit his free speech you know in a
in a in a commercial way not not in a
government way
so
in a separate but related story
there's a twitter engineering manager
now what i don't know
is how important a twitter engineering
manager is
are there lots of them
because there are lots of subgroups so
they all need a little manager or is
this somebody who manages all the
engineers i don't know be a pretty big
difference
but somebody who is a
engineering manager
uh had been tweeting some
negative stuff about elon being on the
board and really hated it and you know
was digging up some old elon musk tweets
to embarrass them
and
i think this is telling you everything
isn't it
it feels like that's everything
i feel like uh
knowing that there's a engineering
manager in twitter that really really
doesn't like whatever it is that elon
musk thinks he's going to do
i feel like
now you know everything
don't you
now it's only one person
so you know maybe i'm over generalizing
here
but that's one person who operated with
impunity in the sense that that one
person was you know not shy about
putting out the message he put out
i shouldn't say he
because i don't know the pronoun
but uh let's say they put out
all right um
here's another funny tweet by first
words
on twitter at uh unscripted mike says
this
he said elon musk recently built the
largest factory in the world in texas of
course just launched the first all
private rocket to the international
space station and will soon restore free
speech to twitter the 21st century town
square
meanwhile biden was speaking
incoherently somewhere the whole time
and the reason the the funny thing about
this tweet is what makes it work is the
last uh
three unnecessary words
so here's a little tip for you
generally speaking you want to remove
unnecessary words from your
communication
because they're unnecessary and they
just get in the way
but an exception is humor
where sometimes the unnecessary words
are
i don't know exactly why they work so
it's just something you have to a b test
in your head if i add these unnecessary
words is it better or worse and i don't
know why this is better but
but let me read the sentence again and
see how important the whole time is even
though it's unnecessary watch
meanwhile biden was speaking
incoherently somewhere the whole time
the whole time i don't know that's what
makes the tweet
right
um
by the way how often have you seen my
blog post on how to be the day you
became a better writer
how many of you have seen that because
it's going around again it's been going
around
i think he gets
passed around at least every month
or so for years
if you haven't seen it the reason it
gets passed around every month or so for
years is that when people read it and it
takes approximately
less than two minutes
very short
and it's basically the shortest writing
lesson in the world with the most impact
so it was created to be exactly that the
shortest writing with the most impact so
just google if you want to see that
the day
you became a better writer
the day you became a better writer and
with my name it'll pop right up it's all
over the place
now this is why i like this live stream
because some of you know what just
happened right
some of you know what just happened
and some of you don't but you're going
to find out what just happened was
the people who are familiar with that
little piece i just recommended
are are actually aware that it actually
fundamentally
gave them a superpower
like turned them from
mediocre writers or good ish writers
into good writers in two minutes
in two minutes
it really does that
and that's why i put these little two to
four minute lessons on locals
subscription platform
because you can actually fundamentally
change somebody's effectiveness forever
forever
in two to four minutes you just have to
say the right stuff
so
uh the the people who know that know
that i just changed a whole bunch of
lives
just by mentioning it
yeah maybe three of you will google it
but the the three of you who google it
and read it are actually gonna have
different outcomes it's that powerful
all right
um
there's some more information
about
uh the importance of ventilation
and i would still love to know this
question
if we know that almost nobody gets
covered outdoors
and we know that for sure right
has anybody ever gotten covent in a well
ventilated place
and and how well ventilated does it need
to be
because
you know i i've been talked during the
pandemic what if you just turn on your
fans what if you just have fans on is
that good enough
and we still don't know the answer to
that
we might have had a complete solution to
the pandemic
and overlooked it because it was too
ordinary
which is make sure there's a fan in
every room
now the experts say
you got to have a window open but i
think that's where they go wrong
because if the window's open it's going
to be too cold too hot then there's a
reason that people close windows right
bugs
so i really really really wonder if just
moving the air
is enough to distribute the plumes and
we might have had a solution the whole
time we might have
all right here's my solution to the
whole
lgbtq and i think they've added some
numbers or letters maybe some numbers
too and some letters recently
and this is a persuasion
uh recommendation
now i know many of you are on the
let's say the
the social warrior side of
uh stop making a big fuss and giving all
these rights to those lgbtq
activists
and stuff like that
this isn't going to be that
this is actually going to be legitimate
advice
for how the people who would define
themselves in that community
could get maybe better results
okay
and this is in in the form of a
persuasion lesson i'll just apply to
something that's in the news
every time the lgbtq adds a as a new
designation or a new flavor
i think they get further from their
objective
and and what i would do is advise them
to take a
take a tip from what the gay activists
did in the earlier days of
gay rights
do you remember when gay was called
homosexual
and homosexual sounds almost like a
disease if you're not well educated
right it just sounds like wait that word
is way too big
there's a there's a famous story
and maybe somebody can tell me if this
is real or it's just one of those
stories you heard that in the early days
of the united states i don't know
exactly what year somebody was running
for election
and won the election in part
by labeling his opponent a i think it
was a flagrant heterosexual
and people were so undereducated
that when they heard that they're like
whoa
a flagrant heterosexual
we can't have one of those in office you
know back in cowboy days or whatever the
hell was i mean it feels like it was a
a lincoln kind of a era thing but
can can somebody tell me did that really
happen
yeah so i don't know if that really
happened but it tells the story really
well
so here's the thing
when
the gay rights people changed uh you
know from homosexual and queer
although queer they they sort of did the
n-word thing and owned it which was also
a good technique
but gay
who doesn't want to be gay
i mean in the sense that it sounds happy
right
so just labeling it with a word that
people universally embrace before they
think about it
was kind of sort of awesome in terms of
persuasion
it's just one of the greatest
persuasion plays of all times in my
opinion just one of the best although
black lives matter was very good again
we're separating
whether you like the politics of it from
just the persuasion element of it if we
could right
so what could the lgbtq
and extra letters
um
do
to be more
like friendlier sounding so they
immediately get a a positive a positive
vibe
before people think about the politics
and
here's what i would suggest
uh non-binary
now correct me if i'm wrong but
non-binary the way it's currently used
is more limited
than including all of lgbtq right
it doesn't matter for my purposes i'm
saying to you to rebrand non-binary as
the only thing
that captures everything that's not
binary
here's why
people like being non-binary
if you say you fit into one or two
categories i say yeah damn it i oh i
don't know if that sounds so good for me
it feels like i'm a little bit limited
in my thinking doesn't it
even if you're completely hetero or
you're completely
you know if you're completely hetero
you're still going to say
yeah i'm completely hetero
but
i don't know i'd like to think that at
least
at least i had some flexibility you know
and i also wonder
if there aren't lots of people who would
brand themselves hetero
who in their private thoughts are
thinking well i'm hetero
ish
you know what i mean
maybe the
porn they look at isn't exactly uh
matching their hetero you know what i
mean you know what i mean there must be
plenty of people who say
yeah for public consumption i'm i'm
hetero
but you know privately i'm a little bit
non-binary just a little bit
and i see a lot of pushback which which
is why i'm doing this i mean if if it
were not provocative would i do it
really
if i were not provocative that's what
makes this question fun
so with all respect to the lgbtq
community
which some of my favorite people are
members of
um i think if you just said non-binary
maybe you'd get further
or or even something better if there's a
word like gay that just puts a
positive spin on it from the start and
then you think about the politics that's
all
just uh come up with a better label than
a bunch of alphabet letters
all right
um
have you noticed that in our minds at
least there are certain patterns that
keep repeating
and one of the reasons that movies and
books and tv shows work
is that people
like certain patterns of things like
they like stories of good versus evil
they like stories of redemption right
there's a limited set of
what we imagine or the stories that we
want to see
and i'm fascinated when i see parallels
for example
as i tweeted today if you if you're
familiar with the um
the star trek universe
this this will work better if you have
some familiarity with that universe
but if nato is the federation and again
right everybody gets to say their their
side is the good guys
i get it i get it right if you're in
russia
nato doesn't look like the federation
but from our point of view right this is
just a subjective point of view if nato
was the federation
would russia be the klingons
and would china be the romulans or would
they be the ferenga forengai
or the borg
they're a little bit the boring because
they're trying to assimilate the uyghurs
but they're a little bit their friend
guy because they're you know commerce
sort of commerce first
uh
and the russians seem like the klingons
because it feels like the honor of their
empire is what matters more than life
itself
yeah the friend or the frankie are
capitalists but they're merchants right
um
so
this all brings me to the most important
question
which is when we look at this whole
russia russia-ukraine war what would uh
what would shatner do
and until we've heard that i don't think
we understand the whole situation but
what would captain kirk do
i was going to ask him but i'm
i i couldn't his uh dms are closed
all right
here's a
my proof most provocative take today
you're gonna hate this one
um in my opinion
it looks like russia already lost the
war
but
the news is not saying that
like i'm observing it in what seems to
me and i'll get to my cognitive bias and
my confirmation bias that's the point
we're going to that so you don't need to
shout that that you disagree with me yet
because your disagreement is the point
of this right
i'm watching the news and you're
watching the news but why do i see that
russia already lost but the news isn't
reporting it
so there are two possibilities here
which are kind of cool
number one
i'm suffering from a confirmation bias
because i
somewhat uniquely among
experts and probably most of you
said that russia would actually be uh
running into a buzzsaw
and it wouldn't be easy
and that the modern technology that the
ukrainian army was likely to have access
to because their nato and american
sponsorship
they were likely to surprise russia with
a unusually aggressive and effective
tech led response i said their tanks
would be in trouble that drones would be
part of it and so far 100 of that seems
true
right
but would you say that my so i had the
incorrect prediction
100 incorrect
that russia knew what i knew
which is this doesn't look easy
but i guess they thought it was maybe
they had bad information so they went
ahead and invaded so that part i'm 100
wrong just so you can hear me say when
i'm wrong
but it looks to me
like the second part of that
that russia would be surprised
happened
and then it's already happened because
it doesn't look like they really have a
good shot at taking over the country in
terms of owning the capital kyiv
and now we see them doing something that
looks again again
just to me it looks this way not to you
i'm not i'm not suggesting you see it
this way i'm saying that my confirmation
bias
which makes me want to be right
see i want to be right
that ukraine was you know more able to
defend itself than others thought
so
i'm interpreting the situation to make
myself right
and even though i'm aware of it
i can't unsee it
isn't that weird
like i'm completely aware that i'm the
only one seeing this
but there's a reason i'm the only one
seeing it
either
and here's the fun part
either you're all right and i'm
experiencing confirmation bias
completely possible i have no way to
know that that's not true
and it's actually quite likely
i put it in the solidly very likely
category
the other possibility
is that most of you get your opinions
from the news
most people do they get their opinions
from the news it's very rare to have
somebody who has an opinion that
disagrees with either the left or the
right leaning news it's very very odd
unusual so you get your opinions largely
from the news
and the news
told you with all its experts
that ukraine was going to be conquered
by russia well okay not in two days well
it might take him a little longer
but suddenly
russia has withdrawn from the entire
north to try to salvage whatever it can
it doesn't even look like it's going to
take odessa
i mean maybe it will but at the moment
it looks like it got stopped from taking
odessa too in the port
so
am i
experiencing cognitive dissonance or
is the entire mainstream
media including the left and the right
because remember both the left and the
right thought it was going to be an easy
victory for russia
and they were so wrong
it looks to me
they were so wrong
that they can't tell you that they were
wrong
and that the cognitive dissonance and
the confirmation bias is a hundred
percent on the mainstream media side
who has now brainwashed
the rest of you
into believing that something like a
russian victory is is unfolding
when
the news they actually report
i just watched uh general petraeus you
know explain the situation and the
withdrawal from kiev if you just look at
what he's reporting
it really looks like russia already lost
but
you tell me
let's take a vote
tell me am i am i experiencing
confirmation bias
and russia will just roll on to victory
yes or no
the correct that there's only one
correct answer the correct answer i just
saw only one person said it
the correct answer is unknown
all right you just separated yourselves
into the higher level of awareness
and lower level
here's what i'm not going to tell you
that i'm right
about this
i can't tell you that i'm right i can
only tell you what it feels like
because if you're experiencing cognitive
dissonance
or confirmation bias
you're the one who doesn't know
you're the one who doesn't know so if
it's me i don't know and even if you
tell me even if every one of you told me
i'm experiencing it i'd still say and i
don't think so
i don't think so i got reasons i got
good reasons
one person said unknown
when i asked the question who has
cognitive dissonance
the person who said unknown
has the best level of awareness
probably in the conversation
the moment you realize that cognitive
dissonance and and confirmation can just
as easily affect you
that's when you see the machinery
that's when you see
reality just
it opens its cover
but you have to accept
that it's happening to you
if you believe it only happens to the
dumb people on the other side
you'll never see the machinery
and then
you will be
the scenery
so you can be the scenery or you can see
the machinery
and if you think that you know who has
cognitive dissonance in this situation
your scenery
if you can accept
that you don't know
as i do i really don't know if i'm right
i only know what it looks like
and i accept that
and that allows me to see the machinery
don't be the scenery
all right uh
and we heard more about this ukrainian
volunteer drone unit bunch of nerds
i say that with love because i love
technical people
um
they've modified these little hobby
sized drones and
apparently they got credit for stopping
the convoy i feel like they might be
getting a little more attention than
maybe their actual
contribution is but do you wonder if
maybe there isn't still some kind of
secret drones over there that we don't
exactly know about
maybe maybe something that america or
nato has that's
a little bit stealthier or a little bit
faster or
i don't know maybe a little more
autonomous
a little more something
i don't know
and
do you think that when this is over
we'll learn that there was some
technology in play that made a big
difference that we hadn't heard of
during the conflict
maybe i don't know it could be just that
the uh the
let's say the weaponization of drones in
general is the whole story or most of it
um what do you think of the idea of
calling putin a war criminal
let me explain how war crimes are
um tried it's very complicated
so try to try to follow along this is
this is how you handle the war crimes so
you've got the international criminal
court located in hague and it's created
by the rome statute but some people are
members some are we got the united
nations they could do something and then
the members could all agree they would
give it a patina of credibility but of
course russia wouldn't go along with it
so it doesn't really matter so you've
got a whole bunch of legal remedies and
legal approaches that all have the same
uh they have all the same characteristic
we don't fully understand them and
they're not going to make any difference
whatsoever
because
putin isn't going to go to trial
right
and we're not going to capture him if he
leaves the country are we
really
i mean i don't think so would we
if somebody could take him into custody
i don't think so
but
here's what's interesting
can putin ever travel again
except to the few places where you know
they're friendly
i feel like
that russia no longer has a leader in
any realistic way
meaning that
if the if the whole world decides you
just can't even come here
you can't even you can't even touch our
territory do you really have a leader
because you kind of want a leader who
can go to the g8 the g20 you know
whatever is appropriate you feel like
you feel like you're neat leader needs
to show up
right 90 of success is attendance
and he can't attend
right attendance is very important and
now they have a an alleged leader who
can't attend
in a practical way because he won't be
invited or it might be too risky to
leave the country
so in a real sense they already they've
already lost their leader
i mean it's like he's a military
commander now but the country doesn't
have a a political leader because the
the other countries that would need to
treat him like a political leader are
just not going to do it
because they have this this credible
allegations of war crimes now
i want to jump in here and say
because every time i say something like
russia's committing war crimes
somebody who's pro-ukraine jumps in and
says scott scott scott
why you believe in the news and the
propaganda don't you know that the
ukrainians were shelling the
the russians and the donbass and
discriminating against them to which i
say
i don't really know that
no but i don't need to know it
because if you're telling me that
ukrainians have done any war crimes
against russians during this conflict or
even before did some bad things
well believe it
you don't even have to show me an
example it just sounds like something
people do
so
i'm already there
i don't even need any evidence yeah it's
a war there are war crimes uh-huh
both sides yeah yeah both sides
most of the time or all the time all the
time
all the time if it was if it were only
sometimes
that wars produced war crimes then i'd
be like let's look into this
let's look into these details
got to find out who's doing it who isn't
but i don't believe that do you
i just think war creates war crimes
because the people that you send into
war
are the people who are going to do some
war crimes and if they didn't start that
way
work and turn them into that kind of
people
and
i think that there are legitimate
tradeoffs between
you know saving yourself and saving
saving your prisoners
and people are gonna say well i'd rather
save myself frankly thank you
uh
biden droned in innocent family well
intention always matters
so
yeah intention matters
um i i'm tending to think that it might
be a good move uh branding putin as a
war criminal
uh
he's never gonna be tried
unless there's some kind of revolution
in
uh russia itself i suppose that's
possible but i don't see that happening
i think russia will just continue as a
degraded country
and
uh that's it it'll just be a degraded
country forever
for at least for a long
time all right
um i don't have much else to talk about
is there anything i missed
did you hear the story about the 75 year
old
activist
who was at what several years ago
he was out there and the police were
clearing the streets and they they
shoved him and he fell down and hit his
head
now there was some case against the
police officer and the police officer
has been completely cleared
apparently
if you stand in front of the police and
try to stop their progress
they can push you out of the way
turns out you the police can push people
out of the way if if they're trying to
stop the police from doing their job
now i remember seeing that when it
originally happened and people called me
a ghoul
for thinking i didn't see a crime there
i don't know if anybody remembers that i
had a pretty small
audience at the time but i remember
looking at it and thinking
well what do you think happens when you
stand in front of a police action
like what
how do you imagine that goes
like
was there a positive way that was going
to turn out i don't know now of course
the fact that
falling down and being pushed out of the
way actually caused an injury that's not
funny
but i don't think it was the point of
why he was pushed i don't think he was
they were trying to hurt him i think
they were trying to get him out of the
way and i don't think that it was
obvious that that was gonna
you know be as bad as it was
all right
the hunter biden case is heating up
or is it
or is it
yeah he was a local provocateur
provocateur provocateur
um
is there a new troll who's not doing a
good job over here on the
on youtube i hate it when the new guy
he's not really trained on what where my
hot buttons are yet he's just like
flailing
can somebody train the new guy
by now everybody must know my hot
buttons i'm sure you can find them can't
be that hard
am i still on prisoner island
i am not
i am not
and
uh
not that i won't go back
prisoner island uh
recalls us on a regular basis
you you do get dropped on prisoner
island every now and then
so let me let me tell you what uh one of
my big
issues was that apparently isn't a big
issue
so i uh i thought i had a uh
a hernia
it's a little iguana hernia or something
and uh i thought that would require
surgery and probably really soon and it
would ruin my whole summer
and i really really needed
a non-pandemic summer i mean most of you
do but i really really needed it and
i went to the doctor and the doctor said
and this will surprise you it turns out
that googling your symptoms
is just as good as a doctor don't don't
listen to anybody who tells you it
doesn't so so i basic i basically went
in and said doctor i think i have a
uh in inguinal
hernia
and the doctor says let me see and it
took the doctor like three seconds to
say oh yeah
that's one
and then i said all right what do i do
and the doctor said well
uh you know there's one group listen to
this
this will this will dovetail into the
actual
live stream content that i do
it turns out that there was a study
of one group of patients that always
refused hernia surgery
just one group
what do you think that group was
who was the group who refused her hurt
your surgery even when they had hernia
somebody says the amish
that wasn't where i was going
and the answer is surgeons
are we done here
yeah the group least likely to get
hernia surgery to fix it as opposed to
just living with it
or surgeons
and that's what my doctor told me
and so the new thinking
is that
you might be better off living with it
unless it worsens right there's some
point at which surgery is necessary but
mine is
really doesn't have any pain
and you can't really see it so there's
nothing visual
there's no pain it just is something i
know exists i'll work around it and so
i'll have a good summer
so i was sort of on prisoner island and
thought i'd stay there but i just wasn't
current with the best thinking on it and
so i scared myself for no reason i
probably will end up i imagine someday
getting it repaired but it won't be this
summer
so i'm not going to worry about it
yes
oh you have one mesh
you got to do the other side yeah maybe
i'll have to who knows
and that's all for now
uh hope you had a great time
because
and i'll talk to you later